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What are you doing to protect yourself from US/China trade war?

  1. #31

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    India now added to the list of Trump trade enemies. 2000 products no long duty free.

    The thought that there will any winner from this is wrong IMO. Some may lose more than others but all will lose.


  2. #32

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    In wars there are always casualties on all sides... Eventually someone surrenders. Even the winner suffers.

    But if you look at the DJI from 1940 to 1945 in from 1940 it dropped 1942 by 40%. The DJI started climbing and went up 50% by 1945 and by 1946 it had doubled.

    https://ledluc998.wordpress.com/2008...nes-1940-1949/


  3. #33

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fenix2
    In wars there are always casualties on all sides... Eventually someone surrenders. Even the winner suffers.

    But if you look at the DJI from 1940 to 1945 in from 1940 it dropped 1942 by 40%. The DJI started climbing and went up 50% by 1945 and by 1946 it had doubled.

    https://ledluc998.wordpress.com/2008...nes-1940-1949/
    A physical war is completely different. Massive increase in manufacturing and government spending. Zero unemployment. None of that will apply in a trade war.

    In fact given the USA was late joining the war, the 1940-2 period was more like a trade war for the US.
    traineeinvestor likes this.

  4. #34

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    Another dose of pessimism, this time from the Chairman of Hon Hai: Terry Gou Warns: Bigger Financial Tsunami Coming AASTOCKS Financial News - Popular News

    FWIW, I used some spare cash to partially pay down one of our loans last week and will be doing the same again this week.


  5. #35

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    More happy news... though from 3 weeks ago.

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/426...retain-usd-peg


  6. #36

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fenix2
    More happy news... though from 3 weeks ago.

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/426...retain-usd-peg

    Widely laughed at when published as made several basic mistakes when looking at the reserves data.
    traineeinvestor likes this.

  7. #37

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBrit
    Widely laughed at when published as made several basic mistakes when looking at the reserves data.
    Agree then there's the possibility (probability?) that China would not accept the HKD/USD peg being broken under pressure from the USA and support the peg (either openly or behind the scenes) - if so then it's not just HK's reserves but the PRC's standing behind it.

  8. #38

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    Quote Originally Posted by traineeinvestor
    Agree then there's the possibility (probability?) that China would not accept the HKD/USD peg being broken under pressure from the USA and support the peg (either openly or behind the scenes) - if so then it's not just HK's reserves but the PRC's standing behind it.
    And the HKMA has the easy option of letting short term rates rise to par with or above USD rates. Problem solved...

  9. #39

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBrit
    And the HKMA has the easy option of letting short term rates rise to par with or above USD rates. Problem solved...
    They're getting closer already - the one month rates for my USD and HKD margin facilities are currently around 3.60% and 3.05% respectively.

  10. #40

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBrit
    And the HKMA has the easy option of letting short term rates rise to par with or above USD rates. Problem solved...
    so you think of interest on deposits would make the world pour money into the HKD ?

    So after the US's OFAC takes action, and all US financial institutions are not allowed to hold HK/China securities, and lets assume that the sanctions don't cover holding HKD/RMB.... people would start buying the HKD for interest rates.... ?

    The world is full of shitty currencies and markets which aren't on the sanction list.... and you think people would come here to prop the peg?

    Are you by any chance long HKD?

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