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Inflation or Deflation ahead?

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  1. #11

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    Impossible to have inflation with almost no aggregate demand. Many people out of work and with businesses closing decreases demand for almost everything. Exception would be if shortages develop in any area, such as beef, pork, or other commodities, (water?)there may be inflation in those commodities. Outside of those food items/commodities it is not feasible at this time, even in HK. All bets off on crazy HK real estate.

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  2. #12

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    Deflation in the short term; inflation in the medium to longer term although exactly how that plays out will be driven by US monetary policy.


  3. #13

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    So far all the local hkers i have spoken to seems to look at this as their once in a life time opportunity to buy a property.. quite a few has already put their pen to paper.. quite interesting so see the dislocation...

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  4. #14

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    Quote Originally Posted by freeier:
    So far all the local hkers i have spoken to seems to look at this as their once in a life time opportunity to buy a property.. quite a few has already put their pen to paper.. quite interesting so see the dislocation...
    Wow - now? I would be waiting for the real falls once the global economy finally hits the bottom.
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  5. #15

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    Quote Originally Posted by freeier:
    So far all the local hkers i have spoken to seems to look at this as their once in a life time opportunity to buy a property.. quite a few has already put their pen to paper.. quite interesting so see the dislocation...
    Mrs Traineeinvestor has been spending time looking at apartments with friends looking to buy – it's been something of a frenzy in the sub $10 million price bracket due to the lowering of the deposit requirements. They've had to queue to get into vacant apartments to have a look at them. The rest of the market looks a lot softer.
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  6. #16

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    Quote Originally Posted by traineeinvestor:
    Mrs Traineeinvestor has been spending time looking at apartments with friends looking to buy – it's been something of a frenzy in the sub $10 million price bracket due to the lowering of the deposit requirements. They've had to queue to get into vacant apartments to have a look at them. The rest of the market looks a lot softer.
    https://www.thestandard.com.hk/secti...or-a-low-$350m

    "Low", $68k per sqft to live right next to Route 7

  7. #17

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    How much of the property market is mainlander driven? I read somewhere recently (forget where) that 60% of international buyers are mainlanders. I reckon even a significant proportion of ‘domestic’ buyers is actually dirty mainland money. Weren’t there cases of liaison office workers using their HKIDs to buy private properties to get around the SSD? I’ll bet a lot of ‘first time buyers’ are also paid to launder money, sorry I mean purchase property on behalf of mainlanders. If HK does implement Article 23 surely all the mainlanders will launder their money elsewhere. It would collapse the HK property market. Thoughts?

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  8. #18
    bdw
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    Quote Originally Posted by freeier:
    So far all the local hkers i have spoken to seems to look at this as their once in a life time opportunity to buy a property.. quite a few has already put their pen to paper.. quite interesting so see the dislocation...
    But prices haven't gone down much yet. The price index this week is at 175, which granted is lower than 190 reached in June last year right before the protests, but still higher than the 169 they were at in the first week of February last year.

    So I can understand that some local HK'ers are maybe hoping for some silver lining to all this shit and there is a possibility of 'once in a lifetime opportunites' down the track in 6 months, 12 months, a few years from now (I personally don't think so but people can dream if they want), but anyone putting pen on paper now thinking its a once in a lifetime opportunity must have a pretty short memory that can't even recall 15 months ago in Feb 2019?
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  9. #19

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    Quote Originally Posted by bdw:
    But prices haven't gone down much yet. The price index this week is at 175, which granted is lower than 190 reached in June last year right before the protests, but still higher than the 169 they were at in the first week of February last year.

    So I can understand that some local HK'ers are maybe hoping for some silver lining to all this shit and there is a possibility of 'once in a lifetime opportunites' down the track in 6 months, 12 months, a few years from now (I personally don't think so but people can dream if they want), but anyone putting pen on paper now thinking its a once in a lifetime opportunity must have a pretty short memory that can't even recall 15 months ago in Feb 2019?
    Thats quite refreshing to hear from you of all people..

  10. #20

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    People in asia has an excessive fear of not having a roof on the head under their name.. so that manifest into the fight for any real estate and subsequent belief that property prices will always go up in the long run blar blar blar.. speak to the real estate agents and you will see how deeply entrenched that belief is..

    I have no answer to the question of whether it will be real estate inflation or deflation.. i think its not the virus that impact HK, more the fight with mainland which, ironically, makes CCP more determined to take back HK and exert more control, hence suppressing the demand of mainland money trying to get out of china..

    we can only wait to see... honestly a real estate here is really a punt.. the place is not worth retirement (weather, cost, etc).. then only reason becomes speculation. you can join or you can don't, and find somewhere else more meaningful to invest in...
    The total number of houses in HK is not that small.. many people are holding onto more than one unit for investment purposes.. as the baby boomer pass away.. we can only see if these supply comes into the market..

    nivantj and shri like this.

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