Inflation or Deflation ahead?

huja · 13-12-2022, 12:30 AM

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/12/b...G7S6GxwU31RxSs

huja · 24-01-2023, 05:21 AM

FFS . . . Economist should just use the shrug emoji as their default answer to every question.

Some economists expect inflation to remain stubbornly faster than before the pandemic, while others anticipate a steep deceleration. Some anticipate something in between.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/23/b...ing-point.html

traineeinvestor · 24-01-2023, 09:14 AM

Originally Posted by huja:

FFS . . . Economist should just use the shrug emoji

as their default answer to every question.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/23/b...ing-point.html

On the plus side, we can always find an economist who supports whatever views we have.

hullexile · 24-01-2023, 01:17 PM

Originally Posted by huja:

FFS . . . Economist should just use the shrug emoji

as their default answer to every question.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/23/b...ing-point.html

Unfortunately the non economists are worse sometimes.

In the last burst of inflation here, on the flagship business programme of a news channel:

"The government figures say that inflation has reduced from 6.5% to 6% but people have not seen these falling prices. Are the government figures wrong?"

TheBrit · 24-01-2023, 01:37 PM

Originally Posted by hullexile:

Unfortunately the non economists are worse sometimes.

In the last burst of inflation here, on the flagship business programme of a news channel:

"The government figures say that inflation has reduced from 6.5% to 6% but people have not seen these falling prices. Are the government figures wrong?"

Remember inflation figures are generally quoted YoY. Prices can be falling month on month but still rising year on year.

hullexile · 24-01-2023, 02:51 PM

Originally Posted by TheBrit:

Remember inflation figures are generally quoted YoY. Prices can be falling month on month but still rising year on year.

Yes but that is not what they meant. Live TV is a valid excuse, we all get confused at times, especially with a stream of numbers. That presenter does regularly, definitely not Blomberg quality.

traineeinvestor · 24-01-2023, 05:17 PM

Originally Posted by hullexile:

Unfortunately the non economists are worse sometimes.

In the last burst of inflation here, on the flagship business programme of a news channel:

"The government figures say that inflation has reduced from 6.5% to 6% but people have not seen these falling prices. Are the government figures wrong?"

Can't get behind the paywall, but inflation falling from 6.5% to 6% just means that prices are rising YOY at a slightly slower rate. It does not mean that prices are falling. Or am I missing something?

Also, "inflation" numbers are generally the CPI (or core CPI) which will differ from what people actually experience because their basket of expenses will differ from the basket used to calculate CPI.

Sith · 24-01-2023, 05:35 PM

Originally Posted by traineeinvestor:

Can't get behind the paywall, but inflation falling from 6.5% to 6% just means that prices are rising YOY at a slightly slower rate. It does not mean that prices are falling. Or am I missing something?

Hull got that, that's why he quoted some others who apparently don't get it.