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Inflation or Deflation ahead?

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  1. #21

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    Well, it is possible to have both inflation with high unemployment and slow to negative economic growth, that's called stagflation. Although that occurred in the 70's in part due to the oil shock with high oil prices and possible contributions from over-regulation of markets and the then existing gold standard. That is not case with this pandemic-induced recession. Oil price have collapsed for one thing. And regulations have been much reduced (some say we have gone too far to the other extreme of too little regulation against market failures). So definitely more likely to be deflaton.

    Maybe the better question to ask now is, how severe will be the deflation..

    Last edited by Coolboy; 07-05-2020 at 11:21 AM.
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  2. #22

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    Quote Originally Posted by freeier:
    the place is not worth retirement (weather, cost, etc).. then
    That's a very subjective matter of opinion. There are plenty of retired folks in this city after all...

  3. #23

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coolboy:
    That's a very subjective matter of opinion. There are plenty of retired folks in this city after all...
    Which reminds me whats with this sudden surge of beer chugging retired expats on Lantatu? Is it recent or been gradually increasing!! Saw plenty last week which i have never seen before during earlier regular visits..
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  4. #24

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    Even if public health concerns can be resolved relatively soon, we’re staring at a hole in aggregate demand that could persist for some time.
    Large parts of the legislation that has been produced so far are directed toward sustaining demand in the economy, including $1,200 direct payments to individuals, enhanced unemployment insurance benefits, and, indirectly, the program to essentially pay small businesses to keep people on their payrolls.
    The big question the April jobs numbers raise is this: Will there be enough demand in the economy — whether through federal government spending or a private sector snapping back into action — to ensure that sectors far from the epicenter of this crisis can make it through without those 18 million temporary layoffs becoming permanent?
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/u...m-AbZEffgOHc2c

  5. #25

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    Already seeing consumer price deflation now in HK due to the depressed demand,

    likely to continue given to collapse in mainland tourism which is likely not going to return in the near to mid term given their structural economic woes


  6. #26

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    So beers in bars at under 70 HKD on the horizon?

    Talk about silver linings.

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  7. #27
    Kiz
    Kiz is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by nivantj:
    Which reminds me whats with this sudden surge of beer chugging retired expats on Lantatu? Is it recent or been gradually increasing!! Saw plenty last week which i have never seen before during earlier regular visits..
    Was surprised when we moved to Lantau how many retired gweilos are here. But the beer swilling guys I think work for the most part and drink in the evening after work.
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  8. #28

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    Final line . . .

    "Inflation is the least of our worries right now," Bostjancic said.
    https://www.npr.org/2020/05/12/85492...hBjP_gpo7CAp8M

  9. #29

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    I don't predict deflation. Demand is down but so is supply. Inflation will lower but for the large majority of countries stay positive.

    Calculating inflation must be a bugger at the moment because the normal basket of goods is no longer applicable.


  10. #30

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    Quote Originally Posted by freeier:
    So far all the local hkers i have spoken to seems to look at this as their once in a life time opportunity to buy a property.. quite a few has already put their pen to paper.. quite interesting so see the dislocation...
    Once in a lifetime opportunities are down the road. Hold your guns buddy.
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