Like Tree161Likes

Inflation or Deflation ahead?

Reply
Page 4 of 29 FirstFirst 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 12 ... LastLast
  1. #31

    Join Date
    Dec 2002
    Location
    薄扶林
    Posts
    47,967

    Seeing the term disinflation or disflation being thrown around. This is probably driven by the the lack of a sales recovery in high ticket items and consumer habits changing / low confidence in recovery scenarios.

    Keep in mind, right after the virus problem is solved in few weeks (!) the US will head into a vicious election cycle.


  2. #32

    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Pampanga, Philippines
    Posts
    29,766
    Quote Originally Posted by huja:
    What is in short supply that is jumping in price?

    I'm worried about the opposite. I.e. auto manufacturers so very eager to restart assembly lines banking on a V-shaped sales recovery when it's just as likely consumers will keep their powder dry.
    I didn't say anything was jumping in price nor that anything was in short supply.

    I said inflation would fall but stay positive and that supply was falling as well as demand.

    Supply has fallen because workers are not working and because of logistics issues.

  3. #33

    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    Tri-State
    Posts
    11,647
    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    I didn't say anything was jumping in price nor that anything was in short supply.

    I said inflation would fall but stay positive and that supply was falling as well as demand.

    Supply has fallen because workers are not working and because of logistics issues.
    I wasn't questioning you, I was asking a question as my info can be rather myopic being US-based. Also, with decreased supply typically comes increased price, that's where my mind went.

  4. #34

    Join Date
    Dec 2002
    Location
    薄扶林
    Posts
    47,967

    Both, the chicken and the egg are on life support and inedible. Which one is supply and which is demand... Which will recover first?

    huja and LoganH like this.

  5. #35

    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Pampanga, Philippines
    Posts
    29,766
    Quote Originally Posted by huja:
    I wasn't questioning you, I was asking a question as my info can be rather myopic being US-based. Also, with decreased supply typically comes increased price, that's where my mind went.

    Yes with the lockdowns many of our worlds have shrunk, mine included.

    So in the Philippines while inflation is down food price inflation increased because of problems getting produce moved and some food processing factories are closed.

    There are also big issues with the supply chain for the electronics industry (the Philippines main export) so wherever that chain ends will face a fall in supply.

  6. #36

  7. #37

    Consumer expectations of inflation have not changed much - but uncertainty is up.
    https://www.newyorkfed.org/microecon...xpectations/g1

    Longer term has to be inflation - unless the Magic Money Tree is real.


  8. #38

  9. #39

    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Pampanga, Philippines
    Posts
    29,766
    huja likes this.

  10. #40

    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    Tri-State
    Posts
    11,647
    Quote Originally Posted by bdw:
    When the inflation rate becomes -2% and mortgage interest rates are -1%, that's going to start confusing the shit out of people
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-g...source=twitter
    hullexile and Fenix2 like this.

Reply
Page 4 of 29 FirstFirst 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 12 ... LastLast