Like Tree108Likes

Inflation or Deflation ahead?

Reply
Page 5 of 19 FirstFirst ... 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 13 ... LastLast
  1. #41

  2. #42

    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    Tri-State
    Posts
    8,739
    “We believe we are at the early stage of the biggest cobra effect in the history of economics,” McDonald wrote in a post on his popular Bear Traps Report blog. “As the massive monetary and massive fiscal stimuli (over $15T globally) conjoin to save the economy from a deflationary depression, they will cause instead a hyperinflationary economic collapse.”
    He went on to say that if the government were to figure out that such a collapse is coming and decide to change the course of its policies, then a deflationary depression will follow — one “much more severe” than if the powers-that-be hadn’t intervened at all.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...?mod=home-page

  3. #43

    Join Date
    Dec 2002
    Location
    薄扶林
    Posts
    42,907

    - look up crocodile pattern ... this image illustrates it all...

    There are a few more .. but I'm not going to disrupt this thread.. .



    and this one is more technical..




    Buffet probably meant this chart when he said:

    “I realized that technical analysis didn't work when I turned the chart upside down and didn't get a different answer.”
    Last edited by shri; 23-07-2020 at 07:46 AM.
    huja likes this.

  4. #44

  5. #45

    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Pampanga, Philippines
    Posts
    27,145

    Are there any countries where deflation has occurred this year?


  6. #46

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Posts
    296
    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    Are there any countries where deflation has occurred this year?
    this reports that HK had deflation yoy in July (though mostly by way of govt subsidy)
    https://tradingeconomics.com/hong-kong/inflation-cpi
    Last edited by foxwendal; 05-09-2020 at 10:35 AM.

  7. #47

    Join Date
    Jun 2019
    Posts
    7,476
    Original Post Deleted
    There is a reason economics has been called the dismal science.

  8. #48

    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    Tri-State
    Posts
    8,739

    For the tl:dr crowd . . . Three arguments to support possible post-COVID-19 inflation:
    1. People have flush bank accounts due to nearly a year of quarantine and have lots of pent up demand.
    2. Longer-term, globalization is retreating and the world's working-age population is shrinking. i.e. The days of China making cheap stuff for the rest of the world is coming to an end.
    3. Politicians/policy makers will fuck things up.

    https://www.economist.com/leaders/20...-3sjQTiVZnj9rM

    Last edited by huja; 11-12-2020 at 07:13 AM.

  9. #49

  10. #50

    Join Date
    Feb 2019
    Posts
    2,447

    Yeah they're also predicting a burst of increased productivity, which will push prices down.

    So really hedging themselves!

    huja likes this.

Reply
Page 5 of 19 FirstFirst ... 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 13 ... LastLast