View Poll Results: How do you feel about Hong Kong in 2009?

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  • Postive about a recovery soon

    25 34.25%
  • No recovery this year, things will get bad

    48 65.75%

How confident are you about HK's economy?

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  1. #11

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    Quote Originally Posted by HKonelegger:
    I would have said that the only exceptions to the rule of the week getting wiped out in a recession were the really big companies, GM, Exxon Mobil, HP etc.
    Being a big companies doesn't necessarily mean that it's managed well. The american auto industry has been living on borrowed time for many years. They survived on selling trucks and supplying rental car businesses. Their great innovation was to revamp muscle cars of the '70s. Most of the cars they produce are crap with poor resale values because they don't last. They deserve all the trouble they are into at the moment.

    Crisis are good because they force companies to become more efficient and forward thinking. They expose weaknesses in the system that can be rectified and they temporarily get rid of some of the riff raff.

    As for power shifting away from the US, obviously there are ebb and flows and China appears to be taking more and more space. Ultimately though the US will remain a leading economic/military power for many more years than I can count.

  2. #12

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    The current downturn will realign the global economic order and the world will continue to move away from relying on the dollar as the reserve currency.

    Over the past three decades, there have been some 100 financial crises have affected various economies around the world. And each of these crises has been preceded by a cycle of boom and bust.

    "True, governments can reduce the rate of interest in the short run. They can issue additional paper money. They can open the way to credit expansion by the banks. They can thus create an artificial boom and the appearance of prosperity. But such a boom is bound to collapse soon or late and to bring about a depression." Ludwig von Mises

    The question to ask after how long will this last is: How long till the next one?


  3. #13

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    >> How long till the next one?

    Freeier once predicted its on a 10 year cycle and he was right. Forget the theories / books he'd mentioned.


  4. #14

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    Quote Originally Posted by HKonelegger:
    The long term upshot of the great depression was that the USA was able to become an economic superpower. This time around we don't know who will come out on top in the long run, USA, China, India, Eurozone, Japan? Your guess is as good as mine.
    The rise of the US as an economic superpower was caused uniquely by Europe destroying itself during WWII. It took Europe 30 years to recover, and now we have overtaken the US again. With the Euro replacing the US$ as the currency of reference, the US doesn't have any longer what De Gaulle called its "unfair advantage", and is destined to decline.

    Unless the US engages in profound social, economic and political reforms and people start buying only what they can actually afford, and education becomes universal and good (to give only 2 examples) the decline of the US won't stop and the US will return to be the Third World country that it has always been (a situation that was eclipsed only momentarily by Europe destroying itself).

    The future belongs to Europe, China and Japan, and the world has to thank Bush for that.

  5. #15

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    Quote Originally Posted by shri:
    >> How long till the next one?

    Freeier once predicted its on a 10 year cycle and he was right. Forget the theories / books he'd mentioned.
    There is the cycle and then there is the underlying trend. My feel (and I am as much an expert on these matters as Homer Simpson is) is that there is some major restructuring to go on in the US so that although they will recover from this crisis there will not be a return to the previous trend line for the foreseeable future. This will have a knock on effect on many other countries as they realign their economies away from feeding the previous demand levels of the US to other economies such as China and India.

  6. #16

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    Sorry Safran, your post got in while I was typing mine - I think we are saying pretty much the same thing.


  7. #17

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    Waw, Safran, I think you are quite optimistic about Europe!

    Saying that we (im French) have overtaken the US seems to be quite ambitious!
    If you look at the situation in Spain or UK today, you will see that the problem is global and that American were not the only one to borrow more that they can afford!

    Also, it will be a long long time before China overtakes the US! Comparison should consider much more than GDP but also as you mention "education/social/human rights".

    My opinion is that it is very difficult to consider that ANY country today can feel not impacted by the crisis (see HSBC...).

    And about the EURO... Well.. this is again very light assumption that it will replace the $ soon...

    Or maybe you have some facts to support your point??

    At least I wish all European think like you, it would be easier to build the EU

    Quote Originally Posted by Safran:
    The rise of the US as an economic superpower was caused uniquely by Europe destroying itself during WWII. It took Europe 30 years to recover, and now we have overtaken the US again. With the Euro replacing the US$ as the currency of reference, the US doesn't have any longer what De Gaulle called its "unfair advantage", and is destined to decline.

    Unless the US engages in profound social, economic and political reforms and people start buying only what they can actually afford, and education becomes universal and good (to give only 2 examples) the decline of the US won't stop and the US will return to be the Third World country that it has always been (a situation that was eclipsed only momentarily by Europe destroying itself).

    The future belongs to Europe, China and Japan, and the world has to thank Bush for that.

  8. #18

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    Quote Originally Posted by psjylife:
    And about the EURO... Well.. this is again very light assumption that it will replace the $ soon...

    Or maybe you have some facts to support your point??
    The US dollar is no longer a good store of value. Even former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said in September 2007 that the euro could replace the U.S. dollar as the world's primary reserve currency.

    Papers (authors' surnames only cos I can't be bothered to type the lot) you might wish to read:

    Eichengreen
    Portes & Rey
    Roubini & Ssetser
    Persuad & Spratt
    Jens
    Chinn & Frankel
    Rajan & Kiran
    Pollar
    Hefeker

  9. #19

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    Quote Originally Posted by Safran:
    The rise of the US as an economic superpower was caused uniquely by Europe destroying itself during WWII. It took Europe 30 years to recover, and now we have overtaken the US again.
    Not quite accurate Europe was close to bankrupt in 1939 as a result of the Great Depression, which hit Europe later than the USA.

    For Europe taken as a whole the period of around 1931/2 right up to the 1950 and early 60s can be taken as one long recession (I think Hobsbawm may have written something along these lines). America go through the crisis better and decided to economically strengthen itself for the years to come by loaning an already broke Europe enough money to fight a war. The American intervention into WWII was in part to make sure there was someone around to pay back those loans.

    Current economic trends to appear to be going in roughly 10year cycles which is interesting as it fits into the Scott Adams theory that we have no control over anything and are all essential "Moist Robots".

  10. #20

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    From today's Standard:

    With last year's Beijing Olympics successfully behind it, the mainland is counting down to its next big party: the 2010 World Expo in Shanghai. But will the United States show up?
    With deadlines approaching, the US contingent is scrambling for the cash from corporate sponsors for a national pavilion, according to the Los Angeles Times.
    Companies are apparently hesitant to invest in a building in which their names and logos will be displayed subtly rather than splashed out front. Add to the mix the financial crisis and a US recession, and it's not hard to see the difficulties.
    However, not turning up could, in many people's view, hurt bilateral relations and American commercial interests.

    "I think it'd be tragic if the US isn't represented in this expo," said Nick Winslow, a theme-park expert who, with lawyer Ellen Eliasoph, was picked to develop a US pavilion and show. They say they have until April to raise the US$84 million (HK$655 million) estimated for the project. They have just US$500,000 so far.
    A US no-show would really hurt America's image among the Chinese public, Sidney Rittenberg, a China consultant based in Washington state, told the paper.
    "Most will feel it's a deliberate humiliation," he said.
    "It's going to stir up a lot of bad feelings," including the possibility of boycotts of US goods.


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