HK Stock Market - How high?

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  1. #1

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    HK Stock Market - How high?

    Hang Seng soars on signs of manufacturing rebound

    I've been selling some of the stocks I had bought over the last few months in the expectation of a correction - but the market still goes up. Is it down to confidence in the economy, or is it just because money has nowhere else to go? Thoughts please.

  2. #2

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    I haven't sold any yet, but I did put some sell orders in today (the prices weren't reached). On the stocks I bought because they were massively oversold (CITIC, BEA) I'll be locking in some profits pretty soon. CITIC is up over 500% from its bottom (but still less than half its 52 wk high). Europe seems to be following on up at the moment.

    But to the general question, I honestly don't know - the stock markets are basically just a high stakes casino these days, at least if you're looking short term. I'll be holding on to things like HSBC for the long run just for the Dividend yield.


  3. #3

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    With regards to HSBC stock what do you forecast in the short term?


  4. #4

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    Every day, some friends and I keep talking about it. It's bound to correct at some point... When to sell? I've doubled my money on a bunch of stock...Do I cut and run? Run where? To the bank account where you get nothing back? Property is looking pretty good at the moment...

    But that's the kind of headaches I like... I've sold almost all my short term stocks and now I'm holding on to longer term ones that pay good dividends. I'm holding on to a good bit of cash in order to catch the next dip...The question is how much to cash in and how much to keep of the longer term prospect.

    Almost everyone keeps saying it'll tank yet it's been keeping going. There's no doubt that it will dip at some point but when and how much?

    Funny how we haven't heard from the prophet of doom lately...tvrlover I guess he's waiting for the next dip to come out to scold the bulls and talk about the economic apocalypse with a bunch of smilies...


  5. #5

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    Quote Originally Posted by gilleshk:
    Funny how we haven't heard from the prophet of doom lately...tvrlover I guess he's waiting for the next dip to come out to scold the bulls and talk about the economic apocalypse with a bunch of smilies...
    I was thinking of him too. I remember his prediction of a total collapse of the housing market with at least a 50% reduction in prices, or was it more? I guess he is still waiting to buy.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    I was thinking of him too. I remember his prediction of a total collapse of the housing market with at least a 50% reduction in prices, or was it more? I guess he is still waiting to buy.
    i thnk we all know these are predictions anyway. and economics usually views a cross-section of time with assumptions of many factors which may or may not vary.

    all these "famous" economists got lucky. there are many more who are smart at analysing, but were a bit unlucky with the other factors and lost big...

    they are similar to football managers... if you are winning, you're a genius... if you are losing, you're sacked! e.g. luis felipe scolari!

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    There's more than luck involved but there are always intangibles to consider.

    Anyway, the talented ones tend to be luckier than the not so talented ones whether it's sports or business...


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    Tom Holland puts the current Hang Seng rally down to excess liquidity originating from both China and the US but warns that fundamentals are still weak and expects a correction before too long.

    China's been forcing banks to loan huge amounts, much of which has ended up in stock markets, and international investors are thinking that the worst is past and want to get back into Chinese stocks.


  9. #9

    If anyone gives you an exact answer to this.. they have no idea what they are talking about. Invest at your own risk, that's what I've learned over the last 15 years (some riskier than others). Fundamentals are out the window when emotional investors are involved.


  10. #10

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    Bumps in the market can be due to all kinds of factors that are unpredictable but rarely do you see a company with good fundamentals do poorly in the long run.

    It's not magic, voodoo or entirely up to chance but there are no such things as a sure thing.

    Those that get caught are the ones trying to "catch" the market... If you invest with strong companies when the market is at a reasonable or low level by looking at historical averages, you stand an excellent chance to be ahead in the long term.


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