Like Tree96Likes

Covid-19: 3/28 (Sat) Global News

Closed Thread
Page 4 of 7 FirstFirst 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 LastLast
  1. #31

    Join Date
    Aug 2017
    Posts
    2,485

    Question test, test, test...?

    The value of random testing

    DeCODE’s model stands in sharp contrast to that of the U.S. and most countries in Europe, where only those who show clear signs of infection have been tested for the coronavirus. “If you don’t have symptoms, you don’t need a test,” Vice President Mike Pence said in a press conference on Sunday. Similar advice comes from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, whose website notes, “[N]ot everyone needs to be tested. Most people have mild illness and are able to recover at home.”
    Stefánsson, 70, who was a professor of neurology at Harvard University before returning to his homeland to launch his company in 1996, rejects that strategy. He believes it leaves governments unable to understand how to control the spread of the coronavirus, since they have too little data to track its origins.
    Until they do random testing, he says, “they do not have the faintest idea of how and why it is spreading in the society,” he says. “It is as simple as that.”
    Stefánsson says that when Iceland began testing people in February, it expected to find infections among those who had returned from skiing trips to the Alps during the winter vacation, because an outbreak was then beginning in Italy and France’s Alpine region. Indeed, public health authorities did find infected vacationers. But Iceland also found a cluster of infections among people who had returned from England, as well as one from the U.S.—each of which presented with a separate mutation of the coronavirus. “As of yesterday, we have sequences for about 380 viruses,” Stefánsson says. The company plans to release the data on those mutations in the form of public databases this week.
    Amid the fraught debate over self-quarantining, Iceland has remained curiously calm. It has no lockdown laws in place, simply urging people to remain at home if possible. Elementary schools remain open.
    Rather than stress self-distancing above all, the focus has been on testing. “All countries should listen to the World Health Organization and follow the example of Iceland when it comes to the mantra ‘Test, test, test,’” former Prime Minister David Gunnlaugsson wrote in Britain’s The Spectator on Tuesday. He called the country’s testing strategy “virtually unparalleled anywhere in the world.”
    Of course, Iceland’s minuscule population makes it far easier to test there than in most other countries—including even South Korea, where the swift control of the coronavirus among its 50 million people is credited in large part to the government’s aggressive testing and quarantine strategy. In an email, Iceland’s Health Ministry tells Fortune the country has tested a far higher proportion of its population than South Korea has, “yielding valuable insights into the behavior of the virus.”
    DeCODE—and Iceland in general—is in an exceedingly rare position in its ability to analyze its findings on the coronavirus, and perhaps detect what makes some people more susceptible to infection and illness. That could be hugely valuable for scientists as they race to develop treatments and vaccines, and try to stave off any future coronavirus outbreak.
    Since launching 24 years ago, deCODE has mapped the DNA of more than half the population of Iceland, “and we can infer data from the other half,” Stefánsson says. “We are in a reasonably good position to begin to explore if the susceptibility to the infection is in part genetically dictated,” he says. As scientists compare the DNA in deCODE’s data banks with the results of Iceland’s random coronavirus testing, the possibilities might begin to emerge.
    “We are working on that, trying to generate a set of overlapping data,” Stefánsson says. “I don’t think there is another place where there is data like this.”

    https://fortune.com/2020/03/27/coron...ovid-19-tests/

    Quite a contrasting approach when compared to Japan's

    But experts saythe true number of cases in the country almost certainly exceeds 1,400. The government has been criticized for its strict testing criteria, which requires patients to have had a fever of greater than 37.5 Celsius (99.5 F) for more than four days, unless the patients are elderly, have other underlying health conditions, or are connected to a previously confirmed case. Some people who meet the criteria have been denied tests.Even the United States’ badly flawed and belated testing effort eclipses Japan’s minuscule effort — as of March 20, the US had conducted 313 tests per million people compared to Japan’s 118 tests per million people. Japan is using just 15 percent of its supposed testing capacity of 7,500 tests per day. South Korea, widely praised for its drive-through testing measures, is conducting more than 6,000 tests per million people.
    The Japanese National Institute of Infectious Diseases has argued that the strict testing criteria are in place to preserve limited medical resources for those in need of urgent care. “Just because you have capacity, it doesn’t mean that we need to use that capacity fully,” health ministry official Yasuyuki Sahara told the press in a briefing last week. “It isn’t necessary to carry out tests on people who are simply worried.”
    Abe’s governmentis going directly against the WHO’s firm recommendation to “test, test, test,” leading many to conclude that the coronavirus may be far more widespread in Japan than the numbers indicate.
    https://www.vox.com/covid-19-coronav...ths-quarantine
    Mefisto likes this.

  2. #32

    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Hong Kong
    Posts
    3,988

    politics overriding medical advice again ?

    https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/compone...0-20200329.htm


  3. #33

    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Pampanga, Philippines
    Posts
    29,762
    Quote Originally Posted by JAherbert:
    politics overriding medical advice again ?

    https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/compone...0-20200329.htm
    What odds do we have on the USA having the most covid19 deaths for a country?
    JAherbert likes this.

  4. #34

    Join Date
    Jun 2018
    Posts
    1,478

    Quarantine for NY area would surely just be a distraction and false sense of security elsewhere... It's endemic in every major city already. Just give it a week or two...

    I'm really not convinced it's widely understood by the public what being a couple of weeks behind Italy means.

    What's the capacity of these hospital ships they're wheeling out? The scale of the Excel centre hospital in London is pretty terrifying even before it's full of patients

    hullexile and JAherbert like this.

  5. #35

    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Hong Kong
    Posts
    3,988
    Quote Originally Posted by Peaky:
    What's the capacity of these hospital ships they're wheeling out?
    1000 bed per ship I believe (not enough)

  6. #36

    Join Date
    Aug 2019
    Posts
    638
    Quote Originally Posted by Pauljoecoe:
    South African army trying (and failing) to get people living in poor, crowded townships to stay indoors!

    https://youtu.be/U_bUpN52Iyw

    Also saw a report of problems with poor families with no food in southern Italy. Some talking of ‘revolution’

    https://youtu.be/ShO_oMmbTXk

    Scary times! Properly poor people are not going to conform to lock down regulations.
    Very dramatic indeed. To help with that, yesterday Italian PM Conte issued new economic relief measures directed to families in need.

    Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said on Saturday he had approved a new package of measures to help those worst hit by the coronavirus emergency, including supplying shopping vouchers and food packages.
    Conte said in a news conference that 4.3 billion euros ($4.79 billion) would be made immediately available to mayors to deal with theirs citizens' needs and another 400 million would be provided in a special fund for "people who don't have the money to do their shopping."
    They are also preparing “Rem”, Emergency Income to help all irregular workers during this situation (and to increase the regular unemployment income for the regular ones). Estimated cost around 6 billion euros.

    https://m.marketscreener.com/news/It...omy--30271524/

    https://rep.repubblica.it/pwa/genera...252592817/?rss

    Unfortunately Italy has also an important government debt...

  7. #37

    Join Date
    Mar 2020
    Posts
    2,128
    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    What odds do we have on the USA having the most covid19 deaths for a country?
    I hope I'm wrong but I expect the US to reach or be close to a million cases with 20 000 deaths. The lack of coordination and the conflicts between state and federal combined partisan politics and a moron in charge of it all does not give me confidence. Unfortunately because of that, this crisis will likely extend to summer at the very least.

  8. #38

    Join Date
    Jun 2018
    Posts
    1,478

    Sadly I think the US will easily top the rich world toll. But it's going to be so much worse in the developing world where lockdown isn't a choice if people are going to eat.

    chingleutsch likes this.

  9. #39

  10. #40

    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Pampanga, Philippines
    Posts
    29,762
    Quote Originally Posted by Aramis:
    I hope I'm wrong but I expect the US to reach or be close to a million cases with 20 000 deaths. The lack of coordination and the conflicts between state and federal combined partisan politics and a moron in charge of it all does not give me confidence. Unfortunately because of that, this crisis will likely extend to summer at the very least.
    I think 20,000 deaths is very conservative. Italy already has 10,000 with a much smaller population. I would go for 100,000 deaths. I hope not but the way they are reacting makes me fear.