This is a nice piece from Sir David Spiegelhalter.
The lines show the annual likelihood of dying in a normal year.
The dots show the calculated likelihood of dying within a two week period if infected by coronavirus.
Basically it shows that roughly speaking we might say that getting COVID-19 is like packing a year's worth of mortality risk into a week or two.
It also means:
- at a best case and (very unlikely) scenario, it is possible that all the people who die from coronavirus would be the same people who would have died anyway
- at worst case, the average reduction of life expectancy of each person contracting COVID is roughly one year. If people can get reinfected then if you get an infection once a year then on average your remaining life expectancy is roughly halved.
Full link below