Like Tree209Likes

Covid-19: HK News - Long Holiday Thread

Reply
Page 11 of 13 FirstFirst ... 3 8 9 10 11 12 13 LastLast
  1. #101

    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Posts
    1,581

    The world's I&T hub shows that it's really all bollocks again....

    https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/...g-21st-century

    For those that doubt, when trying to book an HKTDC event stand this week online, the guidance notes will tell you in great detail how to set up IE6 to make their portal work.

    http://www.hktdc.com/eoa-static-web/...estions-en.pdf

    ....and anyone who has tried that Javascript bollocks application to file returns with the Companies Registry will agree. We've given up and just download the Word document, fill it in and post it.

    Coolboy, Tyresmoke and TigerSun like this.

  2. #102

    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Location
    Hong Kong
    Posts
    10,564
    Quote Originally Posted by justjoe86:
    I'm just intrigued that everyone on geoexpat seems to trust the HK figures whilst simultaneously calling mainland Chinese figures bullshit.

    Meanwhile the tests done in HK are extremely low, with the exception of everyone coming through the airport, which have seen tests/million rise from 700 to 13000 in a few weeks, most of these testing airport arrivals.


    So how exactly do we know how many "cases" there are which aren't "imported" if they're not being tested? The airport tests have had a 1/90 positive rate which is very low by any country's standards. But if you throw enough shit at a wall some of it will stick, and then you get these figures which suggest it's only imported and local transmission is over. Works very well politically for Carrie Lam and her buddies to blame it all on those filthy Europeans and Americans.

    I'm not sure why I feel like a conspiracy theorist alone with this cynicism. Perhaps it's because I came through HKIA just over 2 weeks ago and stood in the extremely long queue of asymptomatic people standing 2m apart in their N95 masks, waiting to receive their wristbands and test kits, and thought this is a great idea... but shouldn't they also be testing a sample of the asymptomatic general public to at least make a fair comparison? I than sat at home in quarantine for 2 weeks with my negative test result, contemplating the whole thing and wondering how it is so easy to use highly biased numbers to support whatever hypothesis you want and convince the vast majority.
    You look at the death rate. The deaths are hard to hide and hard to fake (particularly in a place like HK). If we had a bunch of "unknown" carriers out there, our death rate would have spiked. It didn't. Therefore its unlikely there is a pool of untested positive people. Unlike many other countries such as Philippines, which has a huge death rate per known case. It also highlights that the actual death rate is likely to be much closer to the 1 or 2 percent seen in high testing places like Germany and South Korea than the low testing estimates.

  3. #103

    Join Date
    Mar 2020
    Posts
    509

    Whatever decisions are taken, they are guaranteed not to be perfect and all will have significant downsides. One of the premiers in Canada issued a statement a few days ago talking about reopening schools in early May. His rationale being that kids are less at risk and parents can't return to work easily if kids are forced to stay at home. On the other hand, he announced that all summer festivals were canceled until August. You can imagine that this ignited some debate...


  4. #104

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Posts
    7,457
    Quote Originally Posted by Aramis:
    Wow there are many things I disagree in this statement. First, China has been lying from the start and medical professionals and journalists were silenced or have disappeared there for trying to report. There's no evidence that this is being done in HK, the medical professionals stood up to the government and certainly don't appear repressed. There is still some free press in HK and the mechanism for silencing journalists during this crisis is not obvious. None have been reported missing or have claimed harassment. HK may be going in China's direction but it's still a far cry from what's over the border.

    As to tests in HK being very low, your theory again doesn't make that much sense because they compare well with most countries and arrivals in HK have been only a few hundreds a day for a while now. If there was significant transmission in the community, we would see some more hospital admissions particularly in light of the fact that we are far from being in hard lockdown. Your number of asymptomatic carriers is taken completely out of thin air as this is not known. Sound logic says that if there were large numbers of asymptomatic carriers, some of those would eventually translate into hospital admissions or visits and positive tests. The idea that thousands of infected people roam around with nothing happening makes no sense.

    As to the statement that Lam and her cronies are blaming transmission on foreigners coming to HK, that is even more ludicrous since the only ones allowed to come back to HK are HK residents and most of those returning are not westerners. A large number of these returnees were students who are not europeans or americans.

    The vision you propose is one viewed through your eyes and definitely not one that I share and not based on too many solid facts.
    Re paragraph 1. I agree with all of this.

    Re paragraph 2. Tests jumped from 700/million to 13000/million when they started testing everyone at the airport. This means numbers are still low with the exception of this new policy which is a very focused group. So in terms of testing the general public as a whole, numbers are still low.

    Re paragraph 3. Well it's a fact that new cases are primarily from returnees. I'm just saying a key reason for this is the focused testing. If you test, you will get positives. If you don't test, you wont.

    Yes I agree it is primarily my own hypothesis based on what I've seen. I just don't feel like the figures we see in tables are a fair reflection of the HK population. Luckily people are wearing masks, washing their hands, and being quite careful, so it is still being contained. But if you think there is nobody out there with the virus, I'd be very surprised if you're correct. In Italy they did some testing for antibodies and found a very high percentage of people had previously had the virus and developed antibodies without being aware. Of course this was a region with extreme cases but I would expect a low percentage (bit significant absolute number) of any population to have the antibodies if tested now. And yes this is speculation not fact, but I expect there will come a time when it is tested. So let's see.

  5. #105

    Join Date
    Oct 2014
    Posts
    2,825
    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    I am sure there is a middle ground less than being stuck indoors indefinitely but more than a free for all and I hear and read of many governments working on that. It is difficult and will take time but very far from impossible.
    HK is not a free for all. The biggest social distancing factors are closure of schools (since January) and WFH for most workers who can (since February). A beach trip or a hike are drops in the bucket.

    And as mentioned for many HK residents the park is safer than their home as far as social distancing goes if they live in a huge public housing estate or subdivided flats.

    People are tired of the virus’ impact and looking for someone to blame. That’s all this is.

  6. #106

    Join Date
    May 2006
    Posts
    6,052
    Quote Originally Posted by justjoe86:
    I'm just intrigued that everyone on geoexpat seems to trust the HK figures whilst simultaneously calling mainland Chinese figures bullshit.

    Meanwhile the tests done in HK are extremely low, with the exception of everyone coming through the airport, which have seen tests/million rise from 700 to 13000 in a few weeks, most of these testing airport arrivals.


    So how exactly do we know how many "cases" there are which aren't "imported" if they're not being tested? The airport tests have had a 1/90 positive rate which is very low by any country's standards. But if you throw enough shit at a wall some of it will stick, and then you get these figures which suggest it's only imported and local transmission is over. Works very well politically for Carrie Lam and her buddies to blame it all on those filthy Europeans and Americans.

    I'm not sure why I feel like a conspiracy theorist alone with this cynicism. Perhaps it's because I came through HKIA just over 2 weeks ago and stood in the extremely long queue of asymptomatic people standing 2m apart in their N95 masks, waiting to receive their wristbands and test kits, and thought this is a great idea... but shouldn't they also be testing a sample of the asymptomatic general public to at least make a fair comparison? I than sat at home in quarantine for 2 weeks with my negative test result, contemplating the whole thing and wondering how it is so easy to use highly biased numbers to support whatever hypothesis you want and convince the vast majority.
    Local asymptomatic cases in the general public are caught via tracing. Such was the case when they quarantined 100 police officers or the entire bar cluster. Thinking that somehow random asymptomatic people on a large scale are running around among the general public is not supported by evidence.

  7. #107

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Posts
    7,457
    Quote Originally Posted by Aramis:
    arrivals in HK have been only a few hundreds a day for a while now. .
    Please could you tell me where you found these stats. If I look at these I will be happy to admit I was completely wrong.

  8. #108

    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Location
    Hong Kong
    Posts
    10,564
    Quote Originally Posted by justjoe86:
    Please could you tell me where you found these stats. If I look at these I will be happy to admit I was completely wrong.
    On the Home page: https://wars.vote4.hk/en

  9. #109

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Posts
    7,457

    OK found it, never mind

    Last edited by justjoe86; 13-04-2020 at 03:19 PM.

  10. #110

    Join Date
    May 2006
    Posts
    6,052
    Quote Originally Posted by justjoe86:
    Re paragraph 1. I agree with all of this.

    Re paragraph 2. Tests jumped from 700/million to 13000/million when they started testing everyone at the airport. This means numbers are still low with the exception of this new policy which is a very focused group. So in terms of testing the general public as a whole, numbers are still low.

    Re paragraph 3. Well it's a fact that new cases are primarily from returnees. I'm just saying a key reason for this is the focused testing. If you test, you will get positives. If you don't test, you wont.

    Yes I agree it is primarily my own hypothesis based on what I've seen. I just don't feel like the figures we see in tables are a fair reflection of the HK population. Luckily people are wearing masks, washing their hands, and being quite careful, so it is still being contained. But if you think there is nobody out there with the virus, I'd be very surprised if you're correct. In Italy they did some testing for antibodies and found a very high percentage of people had previously had the virus and developed antibodies without being aware. Of course this was a region with extreme cases but I would expect a low percentage (bit significant absolute number) of any population to have the antibodies if tested now. And yes this is speculation not fact, but I expect there will come a time when it is tested. So let's see.
    You don't need to do widespread testing to get a survey of the public. One or two thousand a day should be fine. Think of it as polling.

Reply
Page 11 of 13 FirstFirst ... 3 8 9 10 11 12 13 LastLast