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Covid-19: HK News - Long Holiday Thread

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  1. #111

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    OK I had a look at the immigration stats and it seems only 35000 tests have been done at immigration since the mass testing policy, but 96000 tests have been done throughout HK.

    So I am happy to admit the numbers aren't as skewed as I thought. Although this is still a significant proportion of tests (over 1/3), it isn't high enough to explain why the majority of new cases would be imported.

    HK has indeed increased their testing throughout HK and not just at the airport. So I was wrong there regarding the extent of the test percentage done at immigration. I still feel the figures are skewed somewhat but I guess they always will be.

    Now I've admitted I was wrong I think I had better logout since I don't particularly want to read the smug responses

    Last edited by justjoe86; 13-04-2020 at 03:37 PM.
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  2. #112

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    Quote Originally Posted by justjoe86:
    Yes I agree it is primarily my own hypothesis based on what I've seen. I just don't feel like the figures we see in tables are a fair reflection of the HK population. Luckily people are wearing masks, washing their hands, and being quite careful, so it is still being contained. But if you think there is nobody out there with the virus, I'd be very surprised if you're correct. In Italy they did some testing for antibodies and found a very high percentage of people had previously had the virus and developed antibodies without being aware. Of course this was a region with extreme cases but I would expect a low percentage (bit significant absolute number) of any population to have the antibodies if tested now. And yes this is speculation not fact, but I expect there will come a time when it is tested. So let's see.
    The history of cases in HK doesn't really support your theory. For this to be true, it would mean that a great number of individuals would have been able to distance themselves and not infect others. That is not what the evidence suggests in the numerous clusters that have been reported so far. In most cases, there were a number of people living in the same household or having close contact that were infected. Your theory is that somehow a great number of people would be walking around without infecting relatives or closely contacted people. I find that very unlikely... I'm sure that there are people who were sick especially initially that were not identified and if they stayed home and lived alone did not infect others but it's not logical to assume that there are currently a great number of people walking around asymptomatic and potentially infectious.

    If your theory was true and that there is indeed immunity after being infected then HK would be in an even better position since it would have never overwhelmed the health system and through the famous(or infamous) herd immunity, we would be free to resume a more normal life. Unfortunately, I don't believe in the first and still skeptical that herd immunity can be achieved without a vaccine so in my opinion, we're up the creek having to deal with this in various degrees for months if not years

  3. #113

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    Quote Originally Posted by justjoe86:
    Yeah I agree with you. It's the second paragraph's sentiment I was referring to when I said it'll lead to complacency if people start to think it's been eradicated. The only reason it has been reasonably contained is precautions. It's still out there and can spread fast whenever given a chance. It won't go away completely and we are going to have to adapt our lifestyles to some extent. But then again HK was already somewhat in that state since SARS, with people wearing masks when sick etc. I expect the whole world will be going more in that direction after this.
    Something else I think about... on one hand I say to people here in the UK and pals in other countries... you know, generally, up until a couple of weeks ago, bar school closures we carried on more or less as normal and all we really did was wear masks and use alcohol based hand sanitizer... but another thing that I suppose we'll never know the impact of is the extremely high level of hygiene in schools here and all those other things like the cleaning of buttons in lifts and so on... I hope everyone remembers to thank those 'Sam Sams' and cleaners because I suspect they had a large role in Hong Kong's success too.

  4. #114

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    Quote Originally Posted by merchantms:
    But yes we will have periods of relaxation and periods of restriction.
    This was already my understanding of Carrie Lam's idea... I'm sure I heard her talk of waves of measures with respect to health services capacity because I remember interpreting that as a kind of adjusting the tap, as it were... keeping the flow running with hospitals at capacity, turning it back just before they get overwhelmed... not sure where kids going back to school fits in though... let's see what happens in Denmark... I have a bad feeling about it...

  5. #115

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    Quote Originally Posted by HK_Katherine:
    You look at the death rate. The deaths are hard to hide and hard to fake (particularly in a place like HK). If we had a bunch of "unknown" carriers out there, our death rate would have spiked. It didn't. Therefore its unlikely there is a pool of untested positive people. Unlike many other countries such as Philippines, which has a huge death rate per known case. It also highlights that the actual death rate is likely to be much closer to the 1 or 2 percent seen in high testing places like Germany and South Korea than the low testing estimates.
    The "huge" death rate in the Philippines is 6.4% against the global average of 6.2%. Hong Kong has an exceptionally low death rate.

  6. #116

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    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    The "huge" death rate in the Philippines is 6.4% against the global average of 6.2%. Hong Kong has an exceptionally low death rate.
    I think the point she is trying to make which I agree with is that a relatively high number of deaths/death rate combined with a relatively low testing rate suggests that there are many undetected cases in the community. HK is the total opposite of that with relatively high testing rate and a remarkably low death rate which doesn't suggest many hidden cases. Obviously developing countries such as the Phillippines or Indonesia are also not able to provide the same level of care as a developed country and where the general health of the population isn't the same also contribute to a higher rate.

    One only has to look at the US where unsurprisingly most of the deaths in urban area are from disadvantaged communities to have an inkling of the impact in developing countries. No doubt there will also be more deaths that will not be reported as virus related.
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  7. #117

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    Quote Originally Posted by Aramis:
    I think the point she is trying to make which I agree with is that a relatively high number of deaths/death rate combined with a relatively low testing rate suggests that there are many undetected cases in the community. HK is the total opposite of that with relatively high testing rate and a remarkably low death rate which doesn't suggest many hidden cases. Obviously developing countries such as the Phillippines or Indonesia are also not able to provide the same level of care as a developed country and where the general health of the population isn't the same also contribute to a higher rate.

    One only has to look at the US where unsurprisingly most of the deaths in urban area are from disadvantaged communities to have an inkling of the impact in developing countries. No doubt there will also be more deaths that will not be reported as virus related.
    Yes I understand that point but just correcting the factually incorrect "huge", it is average.

    I am not convinced on this idea that there are masses of cases undetected and definitely not in Hong Kong.

    There was the Austrian research which suggests the figure is not huge. In the Philippines they started the increase in testing towards mass testing last week, carrying out the same number of tests in one week as in all the other weeks combined. The number of positive results fell!

    The target is 21,000 tests this week, 42,000 next week, 56,000 the week after then another step up when the private sector take over a lot of it.

    They have readied thousands of additional quarantine beds expecting a surge in positive cases. This will be another indicator for the world as to whether there are masses of undetected cases in the population. However ignore the first couple of weeks as they will be focusing on medical staff and already suspect cases.
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  8. #118

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    Wait until the numbers come right down (in any given place) and all the excuses come out as to why the current measures must absolutley not be lifted/Infact should be tightened even more.

    Quite looking forward to seeing the mental gymnastics behind it all.
    Posted on April 8th. Last few pages haven't disappointed in that respect. My favourite is this new theme that we can't actually trust the HK numbers and/or they're not testing enough. Can't recall many people saying that when the numbers were climbing. Doctors and nurses have proven to be fiercely anti-government when necessary, they would be shouting to the heavens if they expected foul play on the numbers.
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  9. #119

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    At the end of the day, the number of unreported or asymptomatic carriers is somewhat irrelevant. What matters is the number of people taking hospital beds and dying. What matters is the rate at which they are coming into the system vs the ones being discharged. If there is large silent population that indeed was or is sick and they turn out to have immunity then it can only be a good thing going forward. It's only a problem if that ghost population is sending tons of people to the hospitals and morgues.

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  10. #120

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    Single digit number again today, 5... But they note in the press conference that, yes, some clinics will be closed over the holiday weekend.

    Who is this woman who is working so tirelessly for Hong Kong?

    Mr Chips, cwd, TigerSun and 1 others like this.

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