I don't know if they realize though just how big a hit this would be for them. I suspect Beijing thinks there will only be a short-term plunge that will quickly recover and foreign investors and government will just forget it.
I highly doubt that. Given the worsening state of Sino-US relations, the Trump administration will certainly not turn a blind eye to this. And the Europeans too might be forced to take action, such a blatant move may be a step too far even for them to swallow.
If anything CCP has hopefully waited a bit too long and, with the US heading back to a more normal brand of soap opera politics, Trump just might go big with an American response to distract from the body bags.
Amen on thatOriginal Post Deleted
They might not care about the fate of HK, but they will care about the serious negative consequences this act will bring on them. It will impact their rule in HK. And what message does this send to the world? To Taiwan? That China cannot be trusted to abide by the treaties they signed. That China will destroy the prosperity of the city. That it is incapable of governing a city with a rule of law. That is hardly an appealing message.
With freedoms and way of life about to be changed, who plans to leave within the next few years? HK is losing its appeal really fast IMO.
Same thoughts here. Well all we can do is speculate, just hope this will come back and bite them in the assOriginal Post Deleted
It will backfire on the CCP. Protesters are almost guaranteed to go back on the streets to protest this law. But now with national security law in place, these protesters, some of them at least, are almost certain to disappear, tortured or die "suspiciously". That in turn would trigger further rounds of global outrage which pile more pressure on Western governments to sanction HK officials. Its a downward spiral.Original Post Deleted
in the worst case scenario, there could even be something akin to a civil war in HK, as protesters see any peaceful chance for fighting for pro-democracy be snuffed out, they will legitimatize violence as the only recourse. Groups could arm themselves and assasinate and sabotage HK officials and facilities. I hope that does not happen of course, but with this law, that possibility cannot be ruled out I fear.