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NS Law v/s Trump v/s .... banter

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  1. #1

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    NS Law v/s Trump v/s .... banter

    Quote Originally Posted by MatthieuTofu:
    Like the good puppet that she is.

  2. #2

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    Quote Originally Posted by mrgoodkat:
    Nothing to do with faith. I'm sure Trump doesn't care about HK. He does the things he does because the US doesn't have to care about anyone. US trade with China is 1% of GDP. China isn't as important to US interests as they think they are. They also don't have the population model to progress to a consumption based society as a direct result of the one child policy. The average Chinese citizen is already older than the average American citizen and China doesn't have immigrants to prop up her economy. The past years were as good as it gets for China, it's only downhill from here on out. Imho that's why they are acting the way they are, shoring up power on all fronts before the house of cards comes crashing down.
    I think this assumption by David4Math that US won't dare to do anything is fundamentally flawed and based on the naive belief that US would not do anything about HK. That might have been the case before but not anymore. He is ignorant of the big shift in Washington in sentiment towards China. This is bigger than Trump, there is now bi-partisan consensus in Washington that they now see China increasingly as a threat to their security and economic well-being. Washington is willing now to pay a price to confront China. This willingness wasn't there before (i.e. Bill Clinton backed down over the most-favoured-nation trading status when he saw China was not going to relent). But back then, China wasn't seen as the threat it is today in Washington. That changes the calcuation for Washington.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coolboy:
    Well I am sorry to disagree with you. The US has stake a not inconsiderable amount of political capital on maintaining freedoms for HK. It is politically infeasible for them to do nothing in response. That simply won't fly in Washington.
    You are doing your normal thing. I am sure the US will do something for example make some comments, a few diplomatic spats, perhaps a few trade slaps. The question is whether they will do anything (i) significant and (ii) military? Not whether they will do nothing at all.
    East_coast likes this.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    You are doing your normal thing. I am sure the US will do something for example make some comments, a few diplomatic spats, perhaps a few trade slaps. The question is whether they will do anything (i) significant and (ii) military? Not whether they will do nothing at all.
    Military action? Unlikely, there is no military solution to the HK issue after all. Other measures are more relevant. Sanctions are now a real possibility. Withdrawing recognition of special status? Less likely and maybe not immediately, the US could either a) remove recognition in certain areas to serve as a warning to Beijing or b) warn that any enforcement of this law will result in suspension of recognition entirely.
    Last edited by Coolboy; 22-05-2020 at 03:34 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Taxmyass:
    I like how a lot of folks think all the actions coming from Washington is based solely on Trump's own personal decision. He might have the final call for many things but America isn't a dictatorship and unlike a totaltorian regiem Washington utlimately works for the interest of the US as a country whole. Is Trump narcissistic? Absolutely! Is he a sociopath? Definitely! But that's what at least I think makes him a great fit in office without being fake like all the other politicians. But to call him delusional is beyond inaccurate, he's a marketing genius if anything. And no I don't think he's going anywhere, he will still be the POTUS after this coming Nov. Just my two cents
    I think we are missing the bigger picture by just focusing on Trump. Because that is predicated on the belief his anti-China stance is solely a product of his own machinations and nothing else. That is not correct. Like I said, there is now a political consensus in Washington to push back against China by both the GOP and the Democrats. This consensus wasn't there before. It is now here though. And it will likely outlast Trump. If Biden wins, things are not simply going back to normal for Sino-US relations.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coolboy:
    Well I am sorry to disagree with you. The US has stake a not inconsiderable amount of political capital on maintaining freedoms for HK. It is politically infeasible for them to do nothing in response. That simply won't fly in Washington.
    Please give examples or just one good example of this political capital. I am intrigued.

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    NS law banter...

    Quote Originally Posted by David4Maths:
    Please give examples or just one good example of this political capital. I am intrigued.
    There are so many, you just pretend they don't exist.

    1. The HK Human Rights Act
    2. The bill in the Senate to delist Chinese firms on Wall Street
    3. The whole trade war
    4. The mutual expulsion of journalists from China and US
    5. Surveys showing growing number of Americans are hostile to Chinese goods:
    https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-e...goods-pandemic
    6. Surveys showing unfavourable perception of China in the US jumping from 47% in 2017 to 60% in 2019:
    https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2...rd-china-2019/

    These surveys matter, because it indirectly reflects the mood of the electorate towards China policies. Politicians capitalize and campaigns on this voter mood and tailor policies to suit this mood. Why do you think Biden is attacking Trump for being soft on China? There is a consensus in Washingon now to be anti-China.
    Last edited by Coolboy; 22-05-2020 at 04:39 PM.

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    You've made your point, CB. I like I'm sure many others hope you're eventually proven right (to some extent). Unfortunately, I think that those expecting the US to do something, even being able to do something, that will prevent or even delay this new security legislation becoming a reality will be bitterly disappointed. If the mainland is willing to endure a degree of short term economic pain to resolve the political issues they have in HK over the next few years then what realistically could be done to stop them?

    Also, the idea that Multinationals will pack up and leave in solidarity with the democracy movement here is just very naive. If, over say the next few years, Beijing can demonstrate that HK has maintained legit fiscal autonomy, then companies will be appeased and it'll be business as usual.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Kowloon72:
    You've made your point, CB. I like I'm sure many others hope you're eventually proven right (to some extent). Unfortunately, I think that those expecting the US to do something, even being able to do something, that will prevent or even delay this new security legislation becoming a reality will be bitterly disappointed. If the mainland is willing to endure a degree of short term economic pain to resolve the political issues they have in HK over the next few years then what realistically could be done to stop them?

    Also, the idea that Multinationals will pack up and leave in solidarity with the democracy movement here is just very naive. If, over say the next few years, Beijing can demonstrate that HK has maintained legit fiscal autonomy, then companies will be appeased and it'll be business as usual.
    But that's wrong on political reality. US will do something. Yes, it can't stop the passage of the national security law. But it can penalize those who will enforce this law through sanctions. As for multinational firms, its not only a matter of fiscal autonomy, its legal autonomy that matters. With this move, the mainland is imposing Chinese laws onto HK. The rationale for US firms basing themselves in HK evaporates. There is now a much greater degree of uncertainty to the impartial dispensation of justice in HK. US firms will fear the mainland going after them on some manufactured pretext using this national law. Subversion and sedition is anything the CCP say it is after all. If they can ram through this law through the pretext of Annex III, what else can they do? They can do potentially anything. A firm winning a case in the local HK courts can have that result be nullified by some NPC reintrpretation after all, if the loser is some well-connected mainland firm. One country two systems does not exist now. The good reason to base your business in HK is therefore nullified because now there is no real and meaningful distinction betwen the two jurisdictions.
    Last edited by Coolboy; 22-05-2020 at 05:14 PM.

  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kowloon72:
    Also, the idea that Multinationals will pack up and leave in solidarity with the democracy movement here is just very naive. If, over say the next few years, Beijing can demonstrate that HK has maintained legit fiscal autonomy, then companies will be appeased and it'll be business as usual.
    Multinationals won't back out of solidarity. The US used quite harsh rhetoric on China, and there is this law that demands them to assess the autonomy of Hong Kong, if this autonomy is gone, they'll have to withdraw the special custom status for HK. If China really presses ahead with putting its own police into HK, then I do not see how the US would rate HK as being sufficiently autonomous. They'll have to withdraw this status. And its economic implications will have a number of multinational companies leave, I'm sure.

    If this will stop Beijing, that's a different question.

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