The first UK flight should be used as a guide for future quarantine arrangements.
With the first UK flight arriving and all passengers testing negative pre flight and on arrival, could we assume that all passengers obtained legitimate test certificates (yes, you could catch it in the time before boarding).
So lets see how these test in quarantine:
0-7 days possible still contagious period, just not picked up on pre flight and arrival test (caught en route)
0-14 days possible infection pre flight, but not picked up pre flight or arrival - also could be caught in quarantine
+14 day most likely caught in hotel quarantine (given WHO evidence on incubation)
So wouldn't the departure country be a better assessment of risk?
It would cast doubt on some of the pre boarding testing certificates from a number of countries. Do the airlines really care to get banned for 14 days if they are only flying once a week, I doubt they GIVE A F@#K as they have a full plane of paying passengers in challenging financial times. Besides, the plane that doesn't fly this week will be full in 21 days or whenever granted permission into HK. Besides, what are the consequences for passengers that obtain them fraudulently? a decent healthcare system on arrival?
Based on that assessment 0.2 % of passengers tested positive from the *North pole - low risk, genuine pre boarding certificates - different quarantine arrangement
10% of passengers tested positive from the *South pole . higher risk, stricter quarantine arrangements.
I sincerely hope the UK return flights work out well, mainly as facilitate international travel to and from HK.
Or just allow fully vaccinate passengers... that cuts the risk 70/80% right there