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3rd Dose For Everyone - 1/1/22 & After Effects

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  1. #131

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beanieskis:
    But they’ve only purchased a certain number of doses haven’t they? They’ve not currently ordered any more - what’s the lead time?
    Just ordered a million more in Nov.

    There was a delivery of 400/500K doses in early dec.

    I am not sure what the current lead times are.

    I do have confidence that they'll be able to continue to get additional doses as and when needed on reasonable schedules - unless the Thanos variant shows up....

    The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government announced today (November 19) that it has purchased 1 million extra doses of the Comirnaty vaccine for the implementation of third dose COVID-19 vaccination. Together with the 7.5 million doses that have arrived earlier, 8.5 million doses of the Comirnaty vaccine have been purchased in total. The new batch of the vaccine, manufactured by BioNTech and filled and finished at a plant in Baxter of Germany, arrived in Hong Kong this morning as arranged by Fosun Pharma.
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  2. #132

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    Quote Originally Posted by kittykaitak:
    The impact of omicron has been milder so far but vaccine and widespread prior infection have taken the edge off the impact, not necessarily a change in the virus. Countries vaccinated with ineffective vaccines (I read Sinopharm, Sputnik and J&J) are still vulnerable to much more serious impacts if they have also avoided the widespread prior infection e.g. HK and our large neighbour.

    At risk individuals are still at risk even if the virus isn't as impactful for most, HK has many unvaccinated and many vaccinated with a poor vaccine.

    The fact that this variant is more transmissible and dominates means that future variants will develop from this variant and likely retain the transmissibility. It does not look good for any slackening off of restrictions in China or HK if the zero-Covid is to be pursued (and if the Sinopharm doesn't work, what option do they have?).

    If omicron gets in here, it will be a dramatic collapse.


    Sinopharm, J&J, Sputnik Vaccine Weaker Against Omicron ...https://www.bloomberg.com › news › articles › sinopha...
    This is pretty much exactly what I wrote, except my focus is on the OP's question and not the HK buffoons storing up their problems for later.

    As for being "at risk", everyone is 'at risk' from everything, but clearly for Beanieski's demographic, that risk is barely worth registering.

    When Omi does smite HK, it's entirely predictable who will bear the brunt, and yes the significantly lower levels of natural immunity in HK (lower as Covid was never truly novel, it is a coronavirus) will play it's part - but for us double vaxxed with Biontech, that's not really going to be our problem.
    Last edited by Sage; 28-12-2021 at 02:40 PM.

  3. #133

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    Quote Originally Posted by shri:
    I do have confidence that they'll be able to continue to get additional doses as and when needed on reasonable schedules - unless the Thanos variant shows up....
    It'll be great when the Thanos variant shows up. Rub 2 of them together and half their population disappears....

  4. #134

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sage:
    This is pretty much exactly what I wrote, except my focus is on the OP's question and not the HK buffoons storing up their problems for later.

    As for being "at risk", everyone is 'at risk' from everything, but clearly for Beanieski's demographic, that risk is barely worth registering.

    When Omi does smite HK, it's entirely predictable who will bear the brunt, and yes the significantly lower levels of natural immunity in HK (lower as Covid was never truly novel, it is a coronavirus) will play it's part - but for us double vaxxed with Biontech, that's not really going to be our problem.
    Not quite- there are a lot of poor reports (and wishful thinking) that the virus is weakened. There is a difference between the reduced impact of the virus and reduced virulence of the virus. The impact has been reduced across most regions because of vaccines and previous infection. That does not mean the virulence of omicron has been reduced on a naive population. It has not spread widely on a naive population yet, e.g. here or China ,and I am concerned that the zero-Covid approach can only go one way for a few years.
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  5. #135

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    Have not sifted through the conflicting reports yet, but one suggestion was that “lower virulence” was simply a naive interpretation of the expanded denominator arising from those who might otherwise simply not contract it.

    Like so.

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  6. #136

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    Quote Originally Posted by kittykaitak:
    Not quite- there are a lot of poor reports (and wishful thinking) that the virus is weakened. There is a difference between the reduced impact of the virus and reduced virulence of the virus. The impact has been reduced across most regions because of vaccines and previous infection. That does not mean the virulence of omicron has been reduced on a naive population. It has not spread widely on a naive population yet, e.g. here or China ,and I am concerned that the zero-Covid approach can only go one way for a few years.
    The models I've been squeezing predict omi IS less virulent, though as I wrote in my opening para, much of the mild comes from 'immunity'.

    I'd have thought by now, that savvy observers would have moved beyond the uber conservative and inflammatory reactions such like 'omi is milder ONLY because of immunity'. Have you forgotten already that increase transmissibility is most commonly married with reduced severity?

    But you don't need to guess why its milder, the data is already predicting that it is indeed less virulent than delta and as more data is released you will see that to be proven.

  7. #137

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    You should share your models with us so we can see where you get your information.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sage:
    Have you forgotten already that increase transmissibility is most commonly married with reduced severity?.
    I can't forget something that isn't factually correct- influenza is highly transmissible and every so often totally devastating. There is no narrative story arc to follow here, this virus is still evolving and could develop in lots of nasty ways. I hope it doesn't.

    "For instance a document prepared by a UK government science advisory group in July raised the possibility that SARS-CoV-2 could become more severe or evade current vaccines by recombining with other coronaviruses. Continued circulation in animal reservoirs such as mink or white-tailed deer brings more potential for surprising changes such as immune escape or heightened severity."

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03619-8

  8. #138

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    Quote Originally Posted by kittykaitak:
    You should share your models with us so we can see where you get your information.



    I can't forget something that isn't factually correct- influenza is highly transmissible and every so often totally devastating. There is no narrative story arc to follow here, this virus is still evolving and could develop in lots of nasty ways. I hope it doesn't.

    "For instance a document prepared by a UK government science advisory group in July raised the possibility that SARS-CoV-2 could become more severe or evade current vaccines by recombining with other coronaviruses. Continued circulation in animal reservoirs such as mink or white-tailed deer brings more potential for surprising changes such as immune escape or heightened severity."

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03619-8
    "Could, could, could" the same old tired retort of the fear monger.

    Surely by now you've realised that e.v.e.r.y.t.h.i.n.g. is possible.

    Focus on what is probable and you'll keep your feet on the ground.

    As for influenza being 'devastating'.....snigger.
    Last edited by Sage; 28-12-2021 at 11:32 PM.

  9. #139

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    A purple container will be turned into a mobile vaccination center starting from January 7, and it will provide 450 shots of BioNTech vaccines per day.

    https://www.thestandard.com.hk/break...launch-on-Jan-

    hannah01 likes this.
    Have a GeoExpat related problem - please create a support ticket.

  10. #140

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    Decided to go and get my booster now. If these cases are the start of the fifth wave then hopefully the elderly will finally get vaccinated. I don’t want ICU beds to be full with the selfish if my children are in a car crash.