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Nov 2021 - New 'Omicron' Mutants are Coming..

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  1. #21

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    Yes, but you didn't write high infection rate; you wrote high transmission between vaccinated and unvaccinated people. If you want to move the goal posts, have at it.


  2. #22

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    Quote Originally Posted by flameproof:
    Vaccination has no effect on virus transmission. Even vaxxed you can get it - and will transfer it. The vaxx advantage is that in most cases in prevents serious problems.

    If you look at the death statistics you see that death rate really goes up for the 70+ - in many African countries the average age is 25. I see why they are more easy going about it.

    Anyway, what has an effect virus transmission are travel restrictions and social distance.

    Being locked in sux, but means also we are quite well protected here, so far.
    When I look at Lancet articles it says vaccines do reduce transmission, and the CDC

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ed-people.html
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  3. #23

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    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    When I look at Lancet articles it says vaccines do reduce transmission, and the CDC

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ed-people.html
    The scientific data may indeed show a reduction in transmission rates, thanks to a vaccine that helps to produce antibodies more quickly after infection. However, scientific models and studies are based on hypotheses, which are bound to have different assumptions. The data they collect must also be based on the assumptions that are used to collect the samples. In the real world, the operation and situation must be more complex, and these presuppositions may not exist. For example, in the real world, vaccinated people are generally more socially active, which makes them more likely to spread the virus. The vaccine also reduces the symptoms of the infected person, making it more likely that they will not stop being socially active after infection. These are the situations that were not considered in the study.

    In fact, this situation is supported by a scientific theory, namely the leaky vaccine theory. This was seen in Marek's disease

  4. #24

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    If a virus circulates with “decreased” transmission thanks to vaccination/previous infection, in the absence of elimination (or the much vaunted “herd immunity”), does not that simply imply slower spread over time rather than a decrease in total cases?


  5. #25

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    Quote Originally Posted by AsianXpat0:
    If a virus circulates with “decreased” transmission thanks to vaccination/previous infection, in the absence of elimination (or the much vaunted “herd immunity”), does not that simply imply slower spread over time rather than a decrease in total cases?
    Yes I guess. That in itself takes pressure of the health services though.

  6. #26

    Where is the poll taking bets on when HK bans South Africa? My vote is...Monday.

    And as ByeByeEngland predicts, UK travel ban by January if not sooner...

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  7. #27

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    Yes I guess. That in itself takes pressure of the health services though
    Perhaps, but I imagine not to the degree focusing on vaccinating the vulnerable and on “vaccine equity” might.

    Not to mention the risk-reward implications for various ethical debates which seem to ignore basic logic.

  8. #28

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    Unfortunately I think this level of variation must surely be the product of the virus sitting in someone with HIV or similar compromised immune system for a long time. This has been warned about for some time as something that could well happen in South Africa given the prevalence of HIV among younger people who aren't going to be quickly killed by Covid, but equally potentially never shake it once they contract it. Obviously higher vaccination in the general population would lessen the chances somewhat, but it was probably always going to happen eventually.

    Combination effect of two pandemics. Gulp.

    Hopefully the immunity/vaccine evasion fears and transmissibility estimates are overdone otherwise its 2020 all over again.


  9. #29

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    We sure it’s from South Africa or was it the US army that brought it there first? Or maybe some salmon?


  10. #30

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    A US Marine SEAL carrying a salmon.

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