Jan 2022 - COVID-19 Omicron wave?

[D.YU]

If HK manages to get on top of Omicron like this I'll be truly astounded and eagerly await a more transmissible variant.

But all this “advanced modelling” seems predicated on the assumption that every case will self report and be detected. I can't believe more than half of people would volunteer for the stigma and quarantine. Or are they really poo testing every building in HK (wouldn't put it past them!)

I guess my decision to move to a village house was right lol.

[Cheeky Kiwi]

Lol the Japanese don't have such a genetic disposition.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34026045/

Happy new year

[statman]

If HK manages to get on top of Omicron like this I'll be truly astounded and eagerly await a more transmissible variant.

But all this “advanced modelling” seems predicated on the assumption that every case will self report and be detected. I can't believe more than half of people would volunteer for the stigma and quarantine. Or are they really poo testing every building in HK (wouldn't put it past them!)

If they were testing sewage in every building then they would have picked up on all the silent transmission chains that they say are occurring.

[Sage]

It's still WAY TOO EARLY to be writing off a covid Tsunami from this 'wave'.

It's basic maths, when you multiply small numbers by themselves you get more small numbers...

Undoubtedly; HK's tracing is able to spray enough cold water to take a chunk of the accelerant out of the process, which means the early stages will be more drawn out than you impatient bunch can handle.

Yes, It's my concern too, I've been waiting for covid to rip through HK far far longer than most people on here, but whilst there is a chance that HK will beat it this time, it's definitely too soon to be making that call.

Nobody on here has any idea at all how fast the outbreaks of Omi in the ROW went from zero to 10 - the only insight any of us have is how fast it went from 1,000 to 100,000

Be patient, keep the faith, cross all your fingers, and oh yeah..... send thoughts and prayers.

[TheRoadAhead]

It's still WAY TOO EARLY to be writing off a covid Tsunami from this 'wave'.

It's basic maths, when you multiply small numbers by themselves you get more small numbers...

Undoubtedly; HK's tracing is able to spray enough cold water to take a chunk of the accelerant out of the process, which means the early stages will be more drawn out than you impatient bunch can handle.

Yes, It's my concern too, I've been waiting for covid to rip through HK far far longer than most people on here, but whilst there is a chance that HK will beat it this time, it's definitely too soon to be making that call.

Nobody on here has any idea at all how fast the outbreaks of Omi in the ROW went from zero to 10 - the only insight any of us have is how fast it went from 1,000 to 100,000

Be patient, keep the faith, cross all your fingers, and oh yeah..... send thoughts and prayers.

HK will stay closed to the world and there are two reasons why reopening will not happen: i) zero covid policy to align with Mainland and ii) this is not aligned with the interests of Beijing geopolitically (we all know their strategy). We saw strong indicators of this in 2020, and even more so in 2021.

You can pray for a wave to hit HK but this will unfortunately not change the fact that HK will stay CLOSED for the foreseeable future. The best thing someone can hope for is for the hotel quarantine to be reduced to 10-14 days (maybe happening in 2024?) and for an end of the lockdown announced last week (hopefully sometime in Q1 or Q2 if the wave is under control, which it seems to be for now I guess? But yes too early to tell yet). I do not want to be the bearer of bad news but we need to be realistic!

[Sage]

HK will stay closed to the world and there are two reasons why reopening will not happen: i) zero covid policy to align with Mainland and ii) this is not aligned with the interests of Beijing geopolitically (we all know their strategy). We saw strong indicators of this in 2020, and even more so in 2021.

You can pray for a wave to hit HK but this will unfortunately not change the fact that HK will stay CLOSED for the foreseeable future. The best thing someone can hope for is for the hotel quarantine to be reduced to 10-14 days (maybe happening in 2024?) and for an end of the lockdown announced last week (hopefully sometime in Q1 or Q2 if the wave is under control, which it seems to be for now I guess? But yes too early to tell yet). I do not want to be the bearer of bad news but we need to be realistic!

You might be right, you might not be; but for me, just having covid break their shitty system is enough to pray for.

[greenmark]

It's still WAY TOO EARLY to be writing off a covid Tsunami from this 'wave'.

It's basic maths, when you multiply small numbers by themselves you get more small numbers...

Undoubtedly; HK's tracing is able to spray enough cold water to take a chunk of the accelerant out of the process, which means the early stages will be more drawn out than you impatient bunch can handle.

Yes, It's my concern too, I've been waiting for covid to rip through HK far far longer than most people on here, but whilst there is a chance that HK will beat it this time, it's definitely too soon to be making that call.

Nobody on here has any idea at all how fast the outbreaks of Omi in the ROW went from zero to 10 - the only insight any of us have is how fast it went from 1,000 to 100,000

Be patient, keep the faith, cross all your fingers, and oh yeah..... send thoughts and prayers.

It won't grow. I think you underestimate how determined the government is to eliminate any spread of nuisance, however microsopically small.

[mucaari]

It won't grow. I think you underestimate how determined the government is to eliminate any spread of nuisance, however microsopically small.

The government can't beat science

[njstone9]

One of the issues is of course parents who insist the the school continue to offer all classes because they have paid for them.

Schools are in a bind for that reason too.

Personally I think that there should be a morning timetable as usual, then afternoon classes could be set to work offline (although this is tricky or impossible in many subjects).

There should be an acceptance that less work can be done and it will be at a lower standard.

[bdw]

It won't grow. I think you underestimate how determined the government is to eliminate any spread of nuisance, however microsopically small.

COVID Zero is a policy of buying time. It's a very important and effective policy, used by many countries around the world for 12-18 months in order to buy time for vaccines and preparedness, to keep deaths down. But how much time does HK and China need? What exactly are we buying time for now? What are we waiting for?