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South China Sea 2015

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  1. #61

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    Things about to warm up a bit today. Hopefully neither side does anything stupid.

    US destroyer heading to Spratly Islands - RTHK


  2. #62

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    US navy warship defies Beijing to sail past South China Sea islands

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...mment-62185721


  3. #63

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tom007:
    US navy warship defies Beijing to sail past South China Sea islands

    US navy warship defies Beijing to sail past South China Sea islands | World news | The Guardian
    Good for confidence of the other nations over freedom of navigation, although I don't see how this prevents China from building up the islands. Maybe that buildup will accelerate because of this and subsequent sailings.

  4. #64

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cho-man:
    Good for confidence of the other nations over freedom of navigation, although I don't see how this prevents China from building up the islands. Maybe that buildup will accelerate because of this and subsequent sailings.
    I am afraid I have to agree with you. China seems determined to push this even at the risk of war. Nobody mentions the South China Sea (or the West Philippine Sea) is now full of submarines including apparently the Australians. One false move....
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  5. #65

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    Sadly, war is looming. I mean it's difficult to understate how volatile the situation is and a diplomacy solution seems unlikely.


  6. #66

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    Quote Originally Posted by Loz_2:
    Sadly, war is looming. I mean it's difficult to understate how volatile the situation is and a diplomacy solution seems unlikely.
    I think war is VERY unlikely but the key will be if China keeps any skirmishes localised. If not then the chance of a regional war will be increased.
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  7. #67

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    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    I think war is VERY unlikely but the key will be if China keeps any skirmishes localised. If not then the chance of a regional war will be increased.
    A lot will depend on China's economy, which although slowing, is doing well enough to keep people happy. If China's economy were to really start collapsing and if unemployment and unrest were to follow, I would not be surprised if the CCP tried to stir up trouble and nationalism to divert attention away from the struggling economy.

  8. #68

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    Quote Originally Posted by Open Casket:
    A lot will depend on China's economy, which although slowing, is doing well enough to keep people happy. If China's economy were to really start collapsing and if unemployment and unrest were to follow, I would not be surprised if the CCP tried to stir up trouble and nationalism to divert attention away from the struggling economy.
    China will respond to this US sailing one way or another. They cannot afford not to. Domestic pressure and Chinese nationalism demands it. Beijing cannot afford to be seen as weak in the eyes of its domestic critics (and Xi's enemies in the CCP will try to weaken Xi with this). They might not have interfere overtly with this sailing, but if subsequent sailings proceed as the US claims, then Beijing will definitely react.

    How and what kind of reaction will be the key. It is likely Beijing will calibrate their reaction to signal to the US that they are not backing off, but at the same time, not be so provocative as to trigger a shooting incident. But that is not an easy balance. Can either side really control the situation?

    True, both sides do not want to escalate the situation further, it is in neither side's interest for an actual conflict to break out. But that potential is there. These kind of events have the risk of escalating beyond control. That is the biggest danger. During the next sailing, Chinese warships may block the path of the US ship. Or they may lock their radars on the US ship. And the US ship may lock radar on the Chinese ship in retaliation. Then what happens next? Standoff at best or a shooting war at worst.
    Last edited by Cho-man; 28-10-2015 at 01:19 PM.
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  9. #69

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    Throw into the mix the Philippines is about to allow Japanese forces access to Philippine military bases so allowing them to more easily carry out patrols of the South China Sea alongside the Americans..... can you imagine the uproar in China if Japanese ships went within the non-recognised 12 mile limit? The Australians might get away with it but the Japanese?

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  10. #70

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    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    Throw into the mix the Philippines is about to allow Japanese forces access to Philippine military bases so allowing them to more easily carry out patrols of the South China Sea alongside the Americans..... can you imagine the uproar in China if Japanese ships went within the non-recognised 12 mile limit? The Australians might get away with it but the Japanese?
    The US and Japan are derided by saying it's none of their business. If China is going to help themselves to islands, I'd like to see the Philippines cede one or two islands to Japan and the US, give them a real presence. Then we can all play the game properly.
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