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South China Sea 2015

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  1. #1

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    South China Sea 2015

    So where is all this going? Been simmering for a while but looks like there could easily be some sort of confrontation between China and US soon, by accident or intent.

    Or is the US going to decide it's not worth it and back down, China certainly looks like it won't? China could help themselves to the South China sea then. Any fallout for foreigners in HK?

    US-China war 'inevitable' unless Washington drops demands over South China Sea - Telegraph


  2. #2

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    Its not going to come to blows. Too much is a stake for US and China to throw away their 30+ years of relations over a group of islands. Yes, the US has to appear to "do something" to defend their credibility as a Pacific power. But they aren't willing to engage in a war with China over the islands right now. Not unless China do something really extreme. Right now its all just public posturing for both sides and trying to look tough in front of their home audience. There will be some private agreement worked out between them.

    Of course, there is always the possibility of miscalculation and escalation for both sides. But I won't lose sleep over that possibility. If it worries you that much, you can pack up and leave HK...

    Last edited by Cho-man; 26-05-2015 at 10:11 PM.

  3. #3

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    It has the potential for a disaster but I don't think it will happen. One thing is for sure, the Philippines can't do anything about it. Given the size of their air force and navy they would find it difficult to wage a war against a bunch of school kids let alone China.

    Cho-man likes this.

  4. #4

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ern:
    Any fallout for foreigners in HK?
    Stock up on salt...
    Stu79 likes this.

  5. #5

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    i am honestly not so sure. if you look at history almost every single time that a new power emerges, the existing powers go to war with it. the new power wants more respect, influence, bla bla. the existing powers resent that.

    in this particular case, the south china sea is only a small token but represents a much bigger China strategy to become the dominant power in Asia. this would essentially remove Asia from US influence which i am not sure they can accept.

    the other way to look at it is who would lose more in a war in Asia. Surely that would be China (at this point in time), so that makes the US rather not hold back


  6. #6

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    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    It has the potential for a disaster but I don't think it will happen.
    Thats what I thought about Iraq, and turned out to be wrong, really wrong.

    All it takes is a hawkish prez with a few backroom string pullers and it can easily happen.

    Having said that, China is not going to back down on expansion in their backyard and beyond and I dont see the land of the free wanting to play with them this far out...

  7. #7

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    Quote Originally Posted by cookie09:

    the other way to look at it is who would lose more in a war in Asia. Surely that would be China (at this point in time), so that makes the US rather not hold back
    I don't think its that simple. For the US to engage in a military conflict with China is not without its cost for America. And the cost will be quite substantial. China could retaliate in many ways, and the US does need Chinese cooperation in other areas (i.e. North Korea). It does not make sense for the US to throw away all that for a bunch of islands.

  8. #8

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    U.S. and China didn't go to war after the bombing of the Chinese embassy in former Yugoslavia nor during that crashing of the spy plane about 12/13 years back.
    In the press room it's all about what the public wants to hear (both sides), but in the back room, deals are being made.
    Look at the Crimea, Putin snatched it and nobody even blinked. If nothing happened behind the curtains I must say the west has failed miserably.
    And even if it means war, it most likely mean the end of life as we know it (travel by plane, Internet, mobile communications). Fleeing HK won't make much of a difference (unless u have a prepper hide-out bunker somewhere in the mid-west, plenty of guns and ammo and....food to last for two years and seeds to plant) did I miss anything?

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  9. #9

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    Lets not forget that 'if ' this all goes pear shaped, and it does go military hot, Russia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and North Korea will quickly jump on the band wagon in support of the PRC. India could be a direct casualty also. The whole thing could get very bloody messy.

    Unfortunately the west created today's China, it gave China the financial ( 100's of billions $ spent on military upgrades $$$ over the last decade alone ) means to rapidly modernise its military capability/capacity, not surprising to me that it is now exercising an expansion phase in its own backyard and beyond. Lets not forget that it has naval bases in South Africa also.

    Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but I reckon the world would be a lot less tense right now had ' The West ' invested as heavily as it did with China, in places like Mexico and South America, instead.

    The USA needs to wade through this present situation, very carefully.....

    Last edited by Skyhook; 27-05-2015 at 09:48 AM.
    Open Casket likes this.

  10. #10

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    If the US back down, it will only encourage China to further excessses. Open season to help themselves to what they want, where they want disregarding the national sovereignty of other countries.

    We shall see, maybe they will declare an ADIZ soon over the area. Then things should warm up.


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