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China is a basket case....

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  1. #41

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBrit:
    I don't think you are right about Chinese personal debt. Scroll through some countries household debt to GDP ratio here

    China Households Debt To Gdp | 2006-2016 | Data | Chart | Calendar

    At 38% China is well behind both developed markets as well as many Asian peers. Look at Thailand (71%), Korea (87%), Singapore (61%), Hong Kong (67%), Japan (66%) etc. Neither the absolute amount nor the growth rate of China household debt make me lose sleep at night.

    By the way, I must have missed the debt bubble bursting in the UK after you left in 2006?
    When I see figures like this I am always skeptical, China has such a large population still living in rural villages that I wonder how much this skews the debt numbers. It would be better to look at debt levels in the large cities and provinces like Shanghai, Beijing, Guangdong, etc. The numbers for China as a whole, at least in my opinion, don't provide a real insight into what is really happening with debt in China.

    Based on my experiences I have been seeing much of what @Mamba has, low salary workers making large or expensive purchases on credit.
    Open Casket and East_coast like this.

  2. #42

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    Quote Originally Posted by Skierx:
    When I see figures like this I am always skeptical, China has such a large population still living in rural villages that I wonder how much this skews the debt numbers. It would be better to look at debt levels in the large cities and provinces like Shanghai, Beijing, Guangdong, etc. The numbers for China as a whole, at least in my opinion, don't provide a real insight into what is really happening with debt in China.

    Based on my experiences I have been seeing much of what @Mamba has, low salary workers making large or expensive purchases on credit.
    This is a very good point and matches my obsevations as well. The many Chinese are still unable to rack up debt (no access to credit) so that likely does skew the per capita debt figures. Those is tier one cities are likely no better than people in the west and perhaps even worse in regards to managing debt.

  3. #43

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    Quote Originally Posted by Skierx:
    When I see figures like this I am always skeptical, China has such a large population still living in rural villages that I wonder how much this skews the debt numbers. It would be better to look at debt levels in the large cities and provinces like Shanghai, Beijing, Guangdong, etc. The numbers for China as a whole, at least in my opinion, don't provide a real insight into what is really happening with debt in China.

    Based on my experiences I have been seeing much of what @Mamba has, low salary workers making large or expensive purchases on credit.
    Agree, and then if you assume, as many analysts do, the GDP figures are inflated the debt to GDP figures rise accordingly.

  4. #44

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    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    Agree, and then if you assume, as many analysts do, the GDP figures are inflated the debt to GDP figures rise accordingly.
    Not enough to make a difference though. The urban/rural split is probably an issue everywhere too. There are plenty of reasons to be worried about China but personal debt isn't one of them.

    I'm far more worried about personal debt levels in the US and UK. When interest rates rise and asset prices fall a lot of people are going to find themselves bankrupt in short order. Leverage works great on the way up, not so nice on the way down.
    hullexile likes this.

  5. #45

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mamba:
    Go the full zombie apocalypse route? I'm not sure. I have a good friend here in HK who is a proper prepper, some of the stuff he's doing makes sense, some doesn't, I mean really doesn't.

    Guess when it comes down to it buying land only makes sense if you can get to it. Alright having a plan to go to the Winchester but how do you get there from here? If your bolt hole is on the other side of the world, that's a lot of garden walls to hop.
    Hedge fund guys have been buying up remote properties with airstrips in NZ South Island for a while now.

  6. #46

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    Personal Debt crisis in the USA is one thing. If you want to see a real life Zombie Apocalypse, hack and crash the EBT card system.

    Interesting question: Why are zombie movies and TV series so popular now? Why do they resonate so deeply with the subconscious of many people?

    If one can speculate about why Godzilla was popular in Japan and UFO / Alien movies popular in the USA post-war, perhaps it shouldn't be an unforgivable sin to free-associate about Zombie movies a bit.


  7. #47
    Mamba
    Hedge fund guys have been buying up remote properties with airstrips in NZ South Island for a while now.
    The irony is not lost.
    @Kinch Zombie theory is one of my pet loves but don't have time to play right now, deadline looming.

  8. #48

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    Having a chat with a couple of mid-size Taiwanese industrial investors over the last couple of days. Both had been planning to invest around US$100m in China but both have changed their minds in the last 12 months. Both cited the political risk of President Xi's approach. One will now invest US$150m in Taiwan the other a 50:50 split of $100m in Thailand and Vietnam.

    FDI is the lifeblood of a developing nation. China is still a developing nation no matter how glittery Pudong is...

    India replaces China as top FDI destination in 2015: Report - timesofindia-economictimes


  9. #49

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  10. #50

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    Quote Originally Posted by shri:
    Can someone explain in terms a fool can understand what a Wealth Management Product (WMP) is?

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