China is a basket case....

[East_coast]

Just a place to collate the stories about China that make you wonder how it can all continue

[East_coast]

80% of groundwater in China’s major river basins is ‘unsafe’ for humans: study | South China Morning Post

[huja]

In response to your original post, it can't. It's a matter of when, not if China is going to regress (or worse). There are so many challenges facing China: Corruption, Environmental Disasters, Demographic Problems, Income Equality, Unsound Economic Practices, Leadership Roulette, Territorial Conflicts, Brain Drain, etc. It's just a matter of which issue is going to be the tipping point to send it into a slide and how bad that slide is going to be.

[cow1201]

sounds exactly like India- no offense - and apologies for the slight change of topic but which country or system will go first i wonder?

[Kinch]

As Adam Smith said, "There's a great deal of ruin in a nation."

Things go on until they cannot. Very, very hard to predict timing.

[Open Casket]

One thing that can't be helping China is the outflow of money and rich people. The Chinese dream is to make enough money so you can leave.

If this is the Chinese century, it is only for those Chinese who live on the west coast of N America

[Char Siu King]

sounds exactly like India- no offense - and apologies for the slight change of topic but which country or system will go first i wonder?

Post of the year.

India is the most backward place I've ever had the displeasure of visiting.

[Kinch]

Backward, caste-ridden, and a supremely odoriferous place it may be, but I would posit that India displays considerably more anti-fragile traits than China does at present.

[hullexile]

Backward, caste-ridden, and a supremely odoriferous place it may be, but I would posit that India displays considerably more anti-fragile traits than China does at present.

I would agree, if I were to predict which economy will be bigger in 30 years I would go for India. In my magic ball I see India muddling along (at a fast pace) in its own corrupt inefficient way but China imploding.

[East_coast]

Business debt is huge in China, a lot of local governments have off balance sheet but at least personal debt is low.



As soon as China starts to offer state pensions and better health care this will encourage personal debt the country will be in real trouble.

China guarantees pensions payment: premier - Xinhua | English.news.cn

although the CCP aren't too trustworthy so personal debt probably wont go up too much