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China Trade War - Tarrifs, Tarrifs and more Tarrifs

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  1. #121

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    After that ... US Elections followed by the crowning of President for Ever Trump.

  2. #122

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    Quote Originally Posted by Skyhook:
    I feel ( my gut feeling) that it wont be just China, that gets slapped hard with tariffs...I think this is only the beginning, as the US start slapping tariffs on other Asian countries as well.

    https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/07/ar...arget-vietnam/
    Very true. The impact will not be limited to just China and the US. We keep hearing in the news that multinational firms are moving their supply chains out of China to escape the tariffs. But that may only have short-term effectiveness, as other countries will also face the wrath of Trump. The impact is global.

    Funny thing is, none of Trump's action has resulted in any major shift of manufacturing back to US. Labour and production cost is still too high for many firms to return to the US. Yet I doubt Trump's base will change their support of him. Yes, his base will actually be the victims of the trade war, as they will face higher prices in purchasing consumer products. Farmers, a core group of Trump voters, have also lost the China market. But none of that really matters I think. They are easily manipulated and will vote against their own interest. At this point, Trump can come out in a Nazi uniform and say "Heil Hitler!" and they will still vote for him.

    The bigger question are the independent voters. Will enough of them see reason and vote against Trump next year?
    Last edited by Coolboy; 02-08-2019 at 01:13 PM.

  3. #123

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    Quote Originally Posted by shri:
    Me thinks the UK potentially has bigger problems than India, China and all the other countries put together.

    China / India etc can take the hits. I'm not sure the UK can. Are they not actively negotiating a deal right now, given that they have like 90 days to do this?
    God knows what can happen in 90 days. A thousand Trump tweets, a couple of new Prime Ministers, UK parliament votes down Boris' deal 10 times but without a deal of their own, the UK comprises of just the Tory voting shires with everyone else having declared independence, my pension buys a cup of coffee....
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  4. #124

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    Sure, implosion is a possibility, but how likely? Not very, in my humble opinion.

    I don't want to sound like a pro-Beijing supporter, but I am just analyzing the situation dispassionately. External observers can underestimate the resilience of the mainland economy, just as they are likely to overestimate it's growth and strength.

    Experience has taught me to be cautious about claims about the imminent crash of the Chinese economy and the political regime. We saw such talk after June 4th. After Deng's death. After Xi came to power and so on. Yet the CCP economy did not implode in each of those cases. This doesn't mean I like or support Beijing in any way, I am just looking at this realistically.
    shri and Drunken Master like this.

  5. #125

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    Aastocks has a one liner...

    Something to do with a mass cancellation of pork orders from the US.

    But the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a weekly export sales report that China canceled purchases of 12,200 metric tons of U.S. pork for 2019 and 2,500 metric tons for 2020.

    “It was a market that was fragile with huge supplies, hoping for demand news,” Roose said about CME hog futures. “We didn’t get the demand news.”
    Sounds like it happened a few days or weeks ago.

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/usa-l...-idUKL2N24X20O
    Last edited by shri; 02-08-2019 at 04:29 PM.

  6. #126
    Quote Originally Posted by Coolboy:
    Sure, implosion is a possibility, but how likely? Not very, in my humble opinion.

    I don't want to sound like a pro-Beijing supporter, but I am just analyzing the situation dispassionately. External observers can underestimate the resilience of the mainland economy, just as they are likely to overestimate it's growth and strength.

    Experience has taught me to be cautious about claims about the imminent crash of the Chinese economy and the political regime. We saw such talk after June 4th. After Deng's death. After Xi came to power and so on. Yet the CCP economy did not implode in each of those cases. This doesn't mean I like or support Beijing in any way, I am just looking at this realistically.
    I am waiting for Gordon Chang to write a sequel

  7. #127

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    Quote Originally Posted by shri:
    Aastocks has a one liner...

    Something to do with a mass cancellation of pork orders from the US.



    Sounds like it happened a few days or weeks ago.

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/usa-l...-idUKL2N24X20O
    That could have been what triggered Trump. If the Chinese promised more orders then cancelled he has a right to be angry - but no sympathy for him.
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  8. #128

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    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    That could have been what triggered Trump. If the Chinese promised more orders then cancelled he has a right to be angry - but no sympathy for him.
    Trump is also unhappy with the Fed's "measely" cut in interest rate and is demanding more cuts from the Fed with this tariff move, which will bring pressure on the Fed to make additional cuts. Trump was angered by the Fed 's earlier indication that the previous cut was a one-off event rather than the start of a trend. By bringing about uncertainties to the trade situation, Trump hopes to compel the Fed to make additional cuts. Of course, Trump is playing with fire here, his move (and further tariff hikes) can bring about a US recession, even with additional cuts in interest rate.

    But it is not a foregone conclusion that the Fed will simply cave in to Trump's demands. The Fed values it's independence from the executive branch of government and do not operate according to the demands of Trump.

    Likewise, his calculation that bringing on additional pressure on China will make them cave is also unfounded. The CCP has a long history of facing hostile powers, their default position, when facing perceived external aggressor, military or economic, is to hunker down and not back down. And so far there are no signs that China will simply accept Trump's demands, that would be seen as surrendering to a foreign power, which is political suicide for Xi or anyone in the CCP.

  9. #129

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    Dear Mr. Trump. You can't win because China is willing and able to lose just to make you lose.

    https://slate.com/business/2019/08/c...-tmKsr-l0k9_Aw

    shri and Coolboy like this.

  10. #130

    7.05 CNY per USD - will be interesting to see where it goes from here.

    https://www.x-rates.com/graph/?from=USD&to=CNY&amount=1


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