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China Trade War - Tarrifs, Tarrifs and more Tarrifs

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  1. #141

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    Quote Originally Posted by shri:
    The sad part is that many if us are looking at China being the honest player in this game...

    He says they called. They say no..

    Meanwhile the US markets are falling for the pump and dump news cycle



    Trump says China sincerely wants a trade deal: 'I'm not sure they have a choice' - https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/26/trum...rade-deal.html
    The investors in the market are naive and short-sighted. Trump said trade wars are short and easy to win. Clearly not the case with China. And probably far from easy with the EU as well. Trump simply can't bully China or the EU the way he can with Mexico or Canada.

    I remember most so-called experts in politics, economics, investment banking and consultancies all said the trade war will end relatively quickly as it was in the interest of both sides to find a solution to avoid damage to both economies. Yet here we are more than a year later with no end in sight.

    They failed to realize once a trade war gets going, it can take on a logic and momentum of it's own beyond the rational interest of its players. It's a vicious cycle where both sides can't climb down because of the risk of political damage this will do. So Trump piles on the pressure hoping China will cave, yet China becomes ever more defiant and rigid in response, because they can't be seen caving to the US bully.

    So now we get warnings of an impending recession in the US with the inverted yield curve. We'll see if US gets one, but it is clear Trump is facing increasing pressure and feels like he is stuck in a corner, as his increasingly outlandish remarks and threats suggest.

    Personally, I hope this will all explode in Trump's face, trouble is, he will destroy countless livelihoods with him. But even then, I bet his base will still vote for him. They will lose their jobs, forced to take lower paying ones, can't pay mortgage and so on, yet will still believe the kool-aid from Trump. Reason and rationality is not after all an attribute for a big chunk of Americans...

  2. #142

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    Quote Originally Posted by East_coast:
    Xi or Trump?
    Xi is certainly not without blame. He departed from prior Chinese policy with an arrogant and high-handed approach like the belt and road, militarization of South China Sea and increased repression in Xinjiang. Those actions provided a useful excuse for Trump to brand China an enemy.

    Problem is, Trump is doing this all wrong.Yes, there are legitimate concerns over China trade practices like state subsidies, unequal access to markets, IP theft or not honoring WTO commitments. But Trump's approach pits US against everyone. US has no real allies to press the case on China. And relying so much on tariffs will backfire on the US economy eventually. Trump overestimates the leverage he has on China by going alone with his "America's First" crusade. But he failed to realize China is actually stronger than he thinks.

  3. #143

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    Quote Originally Posted by shri:
    The sad part is that many if us are looking at China being the honest player in this game...
    It seems people want to see the Trump fail so badly they are siding with an authoritarian regime. The West should treat China like a pariah on the same level as North Korea. There is literally no upside for anyone to a "Chinese Century". Everything else being equal, I rather have the country with free press and elections as a hegemon than the one with an emperor for life.

    Quote Originally Posted by Coolboy:
    Trump overestimates the leverage he has on China by going alone with his "America's First" crusade. But he failed to realize China is actually stronger than he thinks.
    I think he underestimated the liberal media's will to side with a dictatorship just to see him fail. China is pretty fucked, property sales are down a lot, car sales are down a lot, prices of pretty much everything are up, there is no spare cash around, the overseas buying sprees have pretty much stopped. I got loads of friends who upgraded to a bigger place and are now sitting on their old properties and can't get rid of them. New hires are reporting that they have left their old jobs because they haven't been paid for months, about half of the companies next doors have closed this year. Anecdotally China is in way worse shape than everyone makes them seem to be.
    Last edited by mrgoodkat; 27-08-2019 at 09:43 AM.
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  4. #144

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    Quote Originally Posted by mrgoodkat:
    It seems people want to see the Trump fail so badly they are siding with an authoritarian regime. The West should treat China like a pariah on the same level as North Korea. There is literally no upside for anyone to a "Chinese Century". Everything else being equal, I rather have the country with free press and elections as a hegemon than the one with an emperor for life.
    In my case, its not a question of wanting Trump to fail. It is a question of just being on point and not making up shit about phone calls that may or may not have happened.

  5. #145

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    Quote Originally Posted by shri:
    In my case, its not a question of wanting Trump to fail. It is a question of just being on point and not making up shit about phone calls that may or may not have happened.
    Fair point, but the Chinese aren't known to be truthful either, yet somehow their word gets taken as gospel.
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  6. #146

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    Quote Originally Posted by mrgoodkat:

    I think he underestimated the liberal media's will to side with a dictatorship just to see him fail. China is pretty fucked, property sales are down a lot, car sales are down a lot, prices of pretty much everything are up, there is no spare cash around, the overseas buying sprees have pretty much stopped. I got loads of friends who upgraded to a bigger place and are now sitting on their old properties and can't get rid of them. New hires are reporting that they have left their old jobs because they haven't been paid for months, about half of the companies next doors have closed this year. Anecdotally China is in way worse shape than everyone makes them seem to be.
    China's economy has been affected no doubt, probably more than the US. But the reasons for their slow down in growth are complex and not merely due to the trade war. What your friends say may not reflect the aggregate economy. Personally, I think some of the things Trump is demanding is good for China themselves economically, although his demand for China to end their state capitalism model is and will always be a non-starter.

    In any case, it is quite an exaggeration to say China's economy is about to implode and the regime will fall. Trust me, you are not the first to say China is doing terribly and about to crumble. I've heard people say that for years. I don't agree with many things Beijing is doing too, but I have to be objective, their regime is very resilient and adaptable. China can absorb more pain than the US and can quite likely outlast Trump.

  7. #147

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    Original Post Deleted
    I can see your point but don't agree. Has China ever been 'trustworthy'? To be fair has the USA? It really comes down to money and the risk/reward calculation.

  8. #148

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    Xi has miscalculated by acting in an arrogant fashion, but again, the regime, whether we like it or not, has a history of withstanding challenges that took down other similar regimes. Fellow communist state the Soviet Union and its satellite states in Eastern Europe fell, but China remains.

    You are correct to highlight the weakness of the Chinese economy. But that brings on an opposite problem, people underestimating the resilience of the Chinese economy and their regime. Ever since Tiananmen, there has been a cottage industry centered around the "China will crash and fall" hypothesis, but, let's just say I am not holding my breath for that to happen.

    One must separate a personal dislike of the regime and its action and the objective facts. I am no fan of the CCP, but I will not be predicting it's fall anytime soon.

  9. #149

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coolboy:
    In any case, it is quite an exaggeration to say China's economy is about to implode and the regime will fall. Trust me, you are not the first to say China is doing terribly and about to crumble. I've heard people say that for years. I don't agree with many things Beijing is doing too, but I have to be objective, their regime is very resilient and adaptable. China can absorb more pain than the US and can quite likely outlast Trump.
    I took your argument that China is stronger than Trump expected to mean them being able to continue to grow and be able to influence countries around the world. I'm not arguing that China is gonna implode and the CCP is gonna vanish, I'm sure that isn't gonna happen any time soon. I'm arguing that it doesn't matter as long as Trump's trade war keeps them from escaping the middle income trap and opens the eyes of the Western world as to what an authoritarian regime they actually are. As long as China can be kept from bringing in the "Chinese century" and taking it's "rightful" place as the leader of the world, or even being on par with the US, I'd call that a win for Trump and the world.
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  10. #150

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    Quote Originally Posted by mrgoodkat:
    I took your argument that China is stronger than Trump expected to mean them being able to continue to grow and be able to influence countries around the world. I'm not arguing that China is gonna implode and the CCP is gonna vanish, I'm sure that isn't gonna happen any time soon. I'm arguing that it doesn't matter as long as Trump's trade war keeps them from escaping the middle income trap and opens the eyes of the Western world as to what an authoritarian regime they actually are. As long as China can be kept from bringing in the "Chinese century" and taking it's "rightful" place as the leader of the world, or even being on par with the US, I'd call that a win for Trump and the world.
    China, as a political regime and society, can take more pain than Trump. So if Trump thinks he can make China cave with tariff and threats, that is a fundamental mistake on his part.

    As for the Chinese century or China being number 1, I think it is rather more complicated. Many of Beijing's practice is loathsome, poor human rights record and repression in Xinjiang is no secret. But that does not mean it want to export those practices abroad. It is not like the Soviet Union which had the aim of spreading communism globally. It simply want to do business (now the Mainland business practices is a core problem, as it is often in conflict with international best practices. But it is not a threat to invade your society like communism under the USSR was like).

    And unlike the Cold War, where America symbolize freedom and liberty from communist oppression, there are no moral virtues Trump can champion. He himself is a negative advertisement of a bully that throws his weight around.

    That brings to the final point, many Chinese, whether they are a CCP member or not, has a genuine desire that China should be the best and they should improved their lives, to suppress that because America is afraid of losing that top spot is seen by them as immoral or downright racist. It will certainly not convert them to America's cause, censorship or not.

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