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China Trade War - Tarrifs, Tarrifs and more Tarrifs

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  1. #11

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    I reckon HK markets will be down a bit today, but Europe and US markets will take a hammering today. We are closed on Monday so may avoid a massive sell of, as other markets will recover a bit on Monday.

    But it could go another way.

    Who knows.


  2. #12

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    Quote Originally Posted by shri:
    I'm sure there is some amount click-baiting going on... but you have to wonder, how deep did the US have to dig to include bovine semen on the list of items which they've increased tariffs on.
    Yes let's short the Bovine semen producers in China!

  3. #13

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    Quote Originally Posted by shri:
    And Trump being Trump, claims that the Chinese are waiting for a Democrat to become president.

    So, what are the odds that there will be a positive outcome to this week's talks?

    Or are we looking at an escalation in tariffs and more economic turmoil?
    I think everyone who has ever worked with the Chinese in a business setting can agree that Trump's version of events is the most likely. He might be the least likeable of all the US presidents but that's doesn't make his (or his team's) view on the matters any less correct.

    Personally I'm hoping that one of the countermeasures will be to let the property bubble inflate a bit more to make up for the loss if GDP due to the trade war. I'd like to cash out big time before it all comes crumbling down.
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  4. #14

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    Does look like there was some state dirven action about an hour ago?

  5. #15

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    Just keep on churning out Marvel or Avengers movie from USA to balance it out


  6. #16

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    Quote Originally Posted by shri:
    @Apjace - thats a really good read. Thanks.
    That is a good read.

    If you believe Trump is capable of long term strategic thought you could argue he is using a similar approach to Reagan and the USSR. Back then it was outspending them on weapons to fundamentally change the long term and now it is out tariffing them. Regardless of what happens this week it is a wake-up call for the world to have a 'China plus 1' strategy. As soon as the USA consumer drives industrial development in other low cost countries. Once established this will change the relationship of China and the world. Where it is now dominant in manufacturing many sectors it will quickly change (think bedroom furniture). Hopefully the China economy is too debt laden and export reliant.
    Last edited by East_coast; 10-05-2019 at 09:20 PM.
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  7. #17

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    https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-e...nch-us-economy

    Apart from arresting Canadians what other tools does the CCP have to fight back? Corruption charges, rent hikes for US firms, lawfare in general?

  8. #18

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    Quote Originally Posted by East_coast:
    Apart from arresting Canadians what other tools does the CCP have to fight back? Corruption charges, rent hikes for US firms, lawfare in general?
    They can send more tour groups from Tier 4 cities to the US.

  9. #19

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    Quote Originally Posted by East_coast:
    That is a good read.

    If you believe Trump is capable of long term strategic thought you could argue he is using a similar approach to Reagan and the USSR. Back then it was outspending them on weapons to fundamentally change the long term and now it is out tariffing them. Regardless of what happens this week it is a wake-up call for the world to have a 'China plus 1' strategy. As soon as the USA consumer drives industrial development in other low cost countries. Once established this will change the relationship of China and the world. Where it is now dominant in manufacturing many sectors it will quickly change (think bedroom furniture). Hopefully the China economy is too debt laden and export reliant.
    Having this conversation with the wife today. If you are a CEO of a company that sources exclusively from China and you haven't been working to find other OEM options, you should be shit-canned. The Vietnams and Indonesias of the world should be rolling out the red carpet for a once in a generation chance to lure multinationals.
    Skyhook and Drunken Master like this.

  10. #20

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    Quote Originally Posted by East_coast:
    https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-e...nch-us-economy

    Apart from arresting Canadians what other tools does the CCP have to fight back? Corruption charges, rent hikes for US firms, lawfare in general?
    Lot of tough guys saying tough things during this spat.

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