Is this the beginning of the end of Communist rule in China?

nivek2046 · 10-04-2020, 01:44 PM

Letting Communist China join the World Trade Organization in 2001 was (with benefit of hindsight) a major policy blunder of the West. Millions of jobs have been lost; there are widespread reports of intellectual property threats. The US government now owes China US$1 trillion in debt; the private sector owes China a few trillion more.

The ascent of Xi Jinping in 2012 gave us the most authoritarian strongman since Chairman Mao. Xi is using debt diplomacy to seize political and economic controls of the countries along the One Belt One Road corridor. Militarization of the South China Sea and the maritime Silk Road is accelerating. For a brief summary of US' grievances against China, read Mike Pence's speech on China of October 24, 2019.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings...orial-lecture/

With the coronavirus pandemic, thousands if not millions of people in the West will die as a result of the rise of Communist China.

Are we now at a turning point in Chinese history? Will Donald Trump try to end communist rule in China within his presidency?

Morrison · 10-04-2020, 02:33 PM

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Bolton

hullexile · 10-04-2020, 02:40 PM

Originally Posted by nivek2046:

Letting Communist China join the World Trade Organization in 2001 was (with benefit of hindsight) a major policy blunder of the West. Millions of jobs have been lost; there are widespread reports of intellectual property threats. The US government now owes China US$1 trillion in debt; the private sector owes China a few trillion more.

The ascent of Xi Jinping in 2012 gave us the most authoritarian strongman since Chairman Mao. Xi is using debt diplomacy to seize political and economic controls of the countries along the One Belt One Road corridor. Militarization of the South China Sea and the maritime Silk Road is accelerating. For a brief summary of US' grievances against China, read Mike Pence's speech on China of October 24, 2019.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings...orial-lecture/

With the coronavirus pandemic, thousands if not millions of people in the West will die as a result of the rise of Communist China.

Are we now at a turning point in Chinese history? Will Donald Trump try to end communist rule in China within his presidency?

I seriously hope not, WWIII would not be pretty. It is up to the Chinese people to overthrow the communist dictatorship not outside powers. I see no signs that they have been weakened to be honest, if anything their grip is strengthened.

TheRoadAhead · 10-04-2020, 02:57 PM

Originally Posted by hullexile:

I seriously hope not, WWIII would not be pretty. It is up to the Chinese people to overthrow the communist dictatorship not outside powers. I see no signs that they have been weakened to be honest, if anything their grip is strengthened.

Why would the Chinese people overthrow a government that is providing them access to higher economic and purchasing power, more opportunities, better technology and societal advancement as a whole?

China will open up eventually (domestically and towards foreign powers) but not until it makes sense for them to do so.

GentleGeorge · 10-04-2020, 02:58 PM

Originally Posted by hullexile:

if anything their grip is strengthened.

Agree with this

After the initial coverup and gross mismanagement, it looked pretty bad. But they have played the "look how much more quickly our stable system can sort things" masterfully, and 'chinese virus' memes from Trump only help the them-vs-us narrative

It's early days in terms of economic impact, that is one fault line that remains - can China cope with reduced Western demand and big best bubble going forward? Time will tell.

civil_servant · 10-04-2020, 03:13 PM

In recent consumer surveys in China 82% of people were happy with the transparency the government provided with regards to the Covid-19 outbreak. US Republicans live in a fantasy world. That's not news though.

hullexile · 10-04-2020, 03:28 PM

Originally Posted by TheRoadAhead:

Why would the Chinese people overthrow a government that is providing them access to higher economic and purchasing power, more opportunities, better technology and societal advancement as a whole?

China will open up eventually (domestically and towards foreign powers) but not until it makes sense for them to do so.

They will eventually though probably not soon. History tells us these things happen. That need not be a bloodbath revolution but a drive towards opening up bringing the downfall of the one party state. That could be next month or in a hundred years. I don't think the party will give up power without a push from the people one way or another and I don't see any major push happening now.