March 2022 - China Covid Cases

[Gatts]

https://twitter.com/joshchin/status/...6-dozCYWA&s=19

[Cheeky Kiwi]

Goodbye @wenxin

[merchantms]

https://twitter.com/joshchin/status/...6-dozCYWA&s=19

I’m hearing from colleagues there and people with friends/family that in some neighborhoods majority of security/management/cleaning staff have been infected. That was only the case in HK at much higher case counts than 6000 (which is where we are now) and Shanghai is 3x HK’s population.

[East_coast]

https://www.scmp.com/economy/economi...gtype=homepage

[DanielFRA]

The near-term future of HK will get decided in in Shanghai in the next few weeks. Will we remain in isolation? Or will our government be allowed to reopen slowly? If Shanghai manages to kick the virus' butt, it means we have to stay in isolation.

[Cheeky Kiwi]

Shanghai will kick the virus's butt

That is the power of lockdowns

But at a huge cost to their economy

$ more important or elderly lives more important in a year where an unprecedented third term will be sought?

[DanielFRA]

Shanghai will kick the virus's butt

That is the power of lockdowns

But at a huge cost to their economy

$ more important or elderly lives more important in a year where an unprecedented third term will be sought?

We can't predict this accurately, as it's never been tried before with Omicron. The last example of a territory fighting to get Omicron down to zero new infections with the conventional zero-Covid weapons was HK. How did this go?

Now you will say: Shanghai has tougher measures. Sure, agreed on that. They have other possibilities that HK didn't have. But will that be enough to get the r-value below one? We will have to see in the next few days and weeks. It's unchartered territory.

[Cheeky Kiwi]

I disagree

If given enough time, lockdowns will kill the virus

When there is no host to infect, R0 goes down

[DanielFRA]

I disagree

If given enough time, lockdowns will kill the virus

When there is no host to infect, R0 goes down

I don't disagree with you. I am just not as gifted as you are to be able to predict the future accurately, especially in a time of uncertainty as an Omicron outbreak in one of the hottest economic hotspots in the world. There are a lot of complexities that come into play here.

[Cheeky Kiwi]

Actually I think it is quite simple

Someone wants a third term, he will get it - as long as there is no massive number of deaths.

Economy poor? Print money, cut tax, etc

There is only one thing we don't know much about that will come into play - how strong is the opposition?

I read in Foreign Policy magazine there are pockets of opposition in the west, in the military even

That is the unknown factor

Which is why I think Taiwan will be invaded this year - you read it here first