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March 2022 - China Covid Cases

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  1. #171

  2. #172

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    Goodbye @wenxin

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  3. #173

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    I’m hearing from colleagues there and people with friends/family that in some neighborhoods majority of security/management/cleaning staff have been infected. That was only the case in HK at much higher case counts than 6000 (which is where we are now) and Shanghai is 3x HK’s population.
    Last edited by merchantms; 01-04-2022 at 09:27 AM.
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  4. #174

  5. #175

    The near-term future of HK will get decided in in Shanghai in the next few weeks. Will we remain in isolation? Or will our government be allowed to reopen slowly? If Shanghai manages to kick the virus' butt, it means we have to stay in isolation.


  6. #176

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    Shanghai will kick the virus's butt

    That is the power of lockdowns

    But at a huge cost to their economy

    $ more important or elderly lives more important in a year where an unprecedented third term will be sought?

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  7. #177
    Quote Originally Posted by Cheeky Kiwi:
    Shanghai will kick the virus's butt

    That is the power of lockdowns

    But at a huge cost to their economy

    $ more important or elderly lives more important in a year where an unprecedented third term will be sought?

    We can't predict this accurately, as it's never been tried before with Omicron. The last example of a territory fighting to get Omicron down to zero new infections with the conventional zero-Covid weapons was HK. How did this go?

    Now you will say: Shanghai has tougher measures. Sure, agreed on that. They have other possibilities that HK didn't have. But will that be enough to get the r-value below one? We will have to see in the next few days and weeks. It's unchartered territory.

  8. #178

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    I disagree

    If given enough time, lockdowns will kill the virus

    When there is no host to infect, R0 goes down


  9. #179
    Quote Originally Posted by Cheeky Kiwi:
    I disagree

    If given enough time, lockdowns will kill the virus

    When there is no host to infect, R0 goes down
    I don't disagree with you. I am just not as gifted as you are to be able to predict the future accurately, especially in a time of uncertainty as an Omicron outbreak in one of the hottest economic hotspots in the world. There are a lot of complexities that come into play here.
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  10. #180

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    Actually I think it is quite simple

    Someone wants a third term, he will get it - as long as there is no massive number of deaths.

    Economy poor? Print money, cut tax, etc

    There is only one thing we don't know much about that will come into play - how strong is the opposition?

    I read in Foreign Policy magazine there are pockets of opposition in the west, in the military even

    That is the unknown factor

    Which is why I think Taiwan will be invaded this year - you read it here first


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