Last edited by merchantms; 01-04-2022 at 09:27 AM.
The near-term future of HK will get decided in in Shanghai in the next few weeks. Will we remain in isolation? Or will our government be allowed to reopen slowly? If Shanghai manages to kick the virus' butt, it means we have to stay in isolation.
Shanghai will kick the virus's butt
That is the power of lockdowns
But at a huge cost to their economy
$ more important or elderly lives more important in a year where an unprecedented third term will be sought?
Now you will say: Shanghai has tougher measures. Sure, agreed on that. They have other possibilities that HK didn't have. But will that be enough to get the r-value below one? We will have to see in the next few days and weeks. It's unchartered territory.
If given enough time, lockdowns will kill the virus
When there is no host to infect, R0 goes down
Actually I think it is quite simple
Someone wants a third term, he will get it - as long as there is no massive number of deaths.
Economy poor? Print money, cut tax, etc
There is only one thing we don't know much about that will come into play - how strong is the opposition?
I read in Foreign Policy magazine there are pockets of opposition in the west, in the military even
That is the unknown factor
Which is why I think Taiwan will be invaded this year - you read it here first