Like Tree160Likes

Travelling to the UK during this pandemic.

Reply
Page 9 of 20 FirstFirst ... 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 17 ... LastLast
  1. #81

    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    3,762
    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    Didn't an orange president say something similar recently?
    I take that to mean you don't have any good evidence that refutes my stance.

    We've been here before Hull, I really feel for you with your health situation. Your risk assessment is different from mine, but what's relevant here is that it's different from the vast majority of the world.

    Even the very oldest developed nations have median ages around 46 and globally it's about 30 - Covid simply doesn't present much risk to them.
    HK_Katherine likes this.

  2. #82

    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Wrong side of the door to hell
    Posts
    6,089

    Was the OP planning on flying BA? (we are...oops)

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...Hong-Kong.html


  3. #83

    Join Date
    Mar 2020
    Posts
    2,141

    It always comes down to values. There will always be people that are willing to sacrifice the few(old and the poor) in order to keep a more comfortable life for the larger majority. Others value the sanctity of life more and feel a duty of sacrifice to preserve it and of course there's a degree of fear(some rational some not about our own health). Most of it is not scientific, it's essentially a moral dilemma and most people have a slightly different view of how much sacrifice is acceptable vs how much risks there is to their lives and others.

    People can argue until the end of time, there will not be a right or wrong answer to moral choices like these. I imagine democratic societies will get a chance to have their voices heard at the ballot box, others well, I guess they can go on internet forums to vent their frustrations and try to convince others they are right.


  4. #84

    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Pampanga, Philippines
    Posts
    27,367
    Quote Originally Posted by Sage:
    I take that to mean you don't have any good evidence that refutes my stance.

    We've been here before Hull, I really feel for you with your health situation. Your risk assessment is different from mine, but what's relevant here is that it's different from the vast majority of the world.

    Even the very oldest developed nations have median ages around 46 and globally it's about 30 - Covid simply doesn't present much risk to them.
    Actually as I am dead covid19 or no covid19 my risk appetite for it is about as high as you can get.

    I have followed the evolving arguments of the "it's just the flu" brigade and their desperate attempts to retain any credibility. The use of highly selective statistics such as choosing 23 days that just happen to be the lowest for many months and ignoring the 41,000 other deaths is standard.

    The comparison of risk by comparing the risk of catching and dying from covid19 against all other causes of death even though you are not going to catch Alzheimer's, dementia, heart disease, cancer on a trip to the UK.

    Yes the risks are low but resorting to false arguments does not make them lower.

  5. #85

    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    3,762
    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    I have followed the evolving arguments of the "it's just the flu" brigade and their desperate attempts to retain any credibility. The use of highly selective statistics such as choosing 23 days that just happen to be the lowest for many months and ignoring the 41,000 other deaths is standard.

    The comparison of risk by comparing the risk of catching and dying from covid19 against all other causes of death even though you are not going to catch Alzheimer's, dementia, heart disease, cancer on a trip to the UK.

    Yes the risks are low but resorting to false arguments does not make them lower.
    Hull, you have misunderstood one very important central fact:

    The risk from covid (on average) for everybody is significantly lower now than it was in March. You have to look at TODAY not April.

    Imagine if you will that this is Dec 2022 and we have a vaccine that 70% of the population has been given. In 2022 'Brit' claims that Covid killed 40,000 people in 2020 and thus the fact that only 1 person has died in the last 3 months of 2022 is thus a "false argument" against current risk - You'd understand that there would have been a material change by 2022 right?.

    Well, there has been material changes since April (not vaccine level, but still significant)
    • Much more effective treatment
    • Many nursing homes have already been hit - so their residents are now immune/recovering/ or deceased
    • More immunity in the wider population
    • Much more testing so that actual cases are closer in number to recorded cases


    Yes, cases are rising now and yes deaths are rising now but the correlation between deaths and recorded infections is significantly different than it was in April. (recorded is important).

    And you're right that one is not going to catch cancer etc on a trip to the UK, but that data is only for perspective on what the main health risk factors we face are and thus not to over emphasise one just because it's new. Risk is a combination of the likelihood of occurrence of that event and the severity of the negative outcomes from it.

    So yes, you're wrong about UK deaths in September being the lowest for many months - That was July/Aug. I used September data because it refers to the present much better than Aug would (which had lower deaths) - Can you appreciate that?

    I don't have the case vs death graph from the UK, but the scenario in the UK is the same as France, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands etc.

    Name:  France Deaths.png
Views: 224
Size:  568.7 KB
    Name:  Netherland Deaths.png
Views: 221
Size:  476.5 KB
    Name:  Spain Deaths.png
Views: 220
Size:  411.1 KB
    Name:  Belgium deaths.png
Views: 220
Size:  511.5 KB
    Name:  UK et all.png
Views: 228
Size:  1.41 MB

    UK latest deaths. Plot Sept deaths in your head against new cases of 4000/5000/6000 per day....And then remember that the actual cases are more likely to be 10,000/20,000/30,000 per day or more

    Name:  UK.png
Views: 216
Size:  59.5 KB


    The point is a.g.a.i.n., that cases in the UK are rising quickly (6,000 per day recorded) and yet deaths are only rising s.l.o.w.l.y QED the rate of deaths (And Hospitalisations regarding your ICU comments) per case is much lower than it was in April, QED the risk is also lower..... Not 'no risk', but as you stated "low risk"

    What happened in April is valuable reference data but no longer accurately affects what's likely to happen in Oct, Nov, Dec onwards.

    So...... look at the graphs, look at the correlation between deaths and cases in March/Apr and look at that correlation in Jun/July/Aug.
    rathunt likes this.

  6. #86
    Quote Originally Posted by Sage:
    Hull, you have misunderstood one very important central fact:
    He understands well. You don't understand that deaths and infection rates are way down because we stopped....

    Business travel
    Overseas tourism
    Large gatherings such as concerts, fairs, weddings, and all kinds of other events
    Cruises
    Schools for many kids
    Visiting the elders
    Switched to WFH
    Wear masks daily
    And many many other things

    If it wasn't for that, our health systems would collapse, we'd be looking at several millions of deaths, and you wouldn't be here preaching low numbers. It's as simple as that and not worth spending one minute more arguing with you.

    And Sweden, fuck Sweden, if everyone locks their border to you because you're an idiot and you impose rules on group gatherings, then practically you're in a de-facto lockdown. Saying that one isn't in a lockdown is pure fabrication.

  7. #87

    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Posts
    7,191
    Quote Originally Posted by greenmark:
    Flew to UK last night. Just arrived for a two week stay for family reasons.

    Last night the CX flight HKG-LHR was absolutely full. Not one single seat empty. Seemed to be 90% full of young Asian 20-somethings. Your son won't be alone.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-54292728

    One of the worst affected halls is Glasgow University's Murano Street residences where at least 172 students have tested positive for Covid-19 and hundreds more are self isolating.
    TaD_LaLa likes this.

  8. #88

    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    3,762
    Quote Originally Posted by civil_servant:
    He understands well. You don't understand that deaths and infection rates are way down because we stopped....

    Business travel
    Overseas tourism
    Large gatherings such as concerts, fairs, weddings, and all kinds of other events
    Cruises
    Schools for many kids
    Visiting the elders
    Switched to WFH
    Wear masks daily
    And many many other things

    If it wasn't for that, our health systems would collapse, we'd be looking at several millions of deaths, and you wouldn't be here preaching low numbers. It's as simple as that and not worth spending one minute more arguing with you.

    And Sweden, fuck Sweden, if everyone locks their border to you because you're an idiot and you impose rules on group gatherings, then practically you're in a de-facto lockdown. Saying that one isn't in a lockdown is pure fabrication.
    Mmmmm maybe a pretty picture might help?

    Name:  Spain Deaths copy.png
Views: 173
Size:  520.8 KB
    HK_Katherine likes this.

  9. #89

    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Pampanga, Philippines
    Posts
    27,367
    Quote Originally Posted by Sage:
    Mmmmm maybe a pretty picture might help?

    Name:  Spain Deaths copy.png
Views: 173
Size:  520.8 KB
    Yep the "wot no deaths" sums up the intellectual depth of that source.

  10. #90

    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    3,762
    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    Yep the "wot no deaths" sums up the intellectual depth of that source.
    Allow me to translate your reply: I don't have an answer to the facts presented, so i'll attempt to distract from the message.

    Unless someone comes up with some tangible reasons to explain how the de-coupling of deaths from infections has occurred in a way that allows them to re-couple again in the next few weeks, this debate ends here.
    Cheeky Kiwi likes this.

Reply
Page 9 of 20 FirstFirst ... 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 17 ... LastLast