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Weather forecast, even with all the advanced technology (i.e supercomputers) we have now, is still something of an art rather then pure science. It is not unheard of that storms will suddenly shift to directions unpredicted by the forecast models (although such cases are getting more rare as technology and accuracy improves). But there is still no such thing as 100% accurate and fool-proof forecast. Just keep that in mind when you complain about how unreliable weather forecast (and storm tracks) can be.
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12-10-2011, 02:46 PM #21
Last edited by Watercooler; 12-10-2011 at 02:48 PM.
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12-10-2011, 02:52 PM #22
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12-10-2011, 02:59 PM #23
i willingly admit that my sense of cardinal directions is terrible... but at least i'm willing to ask...
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12-10-2011, 03:07 PM #24
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14-10-2011, 10:41 AM #25
Will it turn?
BANYAN | Multi-Agency TC Forecast
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14-10-2011, 10:58 AM #26
Even if it doesn't it's just a mild depression, not a storm, not even close to a typhoon!
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14-10-2011, 11:15 AM #27
T1/3 Sunday afternoon and all day Monday is my guess..
It's small though, the Americans can't even find it.....Taiwan is a bit more pessimistic about HKs chances of avoiding any weather from it..Last edited by bryant.english; 14-10-2011 at 11:18 AM.
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14-10-2011, 11:26 AM #28
You're right. The thing is though, and I think you'd agree with me, in the last few years more death and damage in Hong Kong has been caused by rain and heavy storms than typhoons, I'd be more worried about a TS hitting us more or less directly than a Category 1 typhoon slipping by over 500km from us..
I remember some awful storms last year that weren't associated with typhoons, remember when those people were killed in the village in Tai Po?
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14-10-2011, 11:35 AM #29
Still managed to kill 10 here though.
Oh and...
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Regains Tropical Storm status while outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...turns WNW [2AM OCT 15: 18.6N 115.5E @ 75kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to gain strength as it turns West to WSW towards to the south of Hainan [2AM OCT 16: 18.7N 113.3E @ 85kph].Last edited by hullexile; 14-10-2011 at 11:39 AM.
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Originally Posted by Satay Sue:
I wonder why? Hehehe.
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