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  • 2 Post By packy_crusher
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taiwan's future economy vs hong kong's

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  1. #1

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    Arrow taiwan's future economy vs hong kong's

    When I say future I'm thinking about 15, 20 years. In general economic points which would seem more appealing to you?


  2. #2

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    Taiwan, hands down but depends on industry too. Taiwan has a sophisticated manufacturing industry and produces some great things.

    HK is like Switzerland is to Europe for mainland China and has many positives for investment, banking, services and gateway to the world for China.

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  3. #3

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    That depends on when and how the mainland collapses economically and politically. If its messy, all bets are off, thus its so hard to make these type on ling-term predictions when dealing with such an abnormal state like China. Economically and politically the system is certainly unsustainable, and I see no willingness to change in any way. Moreover, economic reforms have gone backwards during the last ten years, and they have a very long way to go.

    If the mainland falls apart, its hard to imagine that the economies that have chose to integrate so closely with the mainland will be unaffected.

    Therefore, its really anyone's guess, because the whole mainland China economic experiment is anything but a sure bet, and if Taiwan and Hong Kong are going to totally rely on the mainland that I guess it would look bad for them.

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  4. #4

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    Heck, if we knew, we would'nt need our day jobs now would we?

    It's important to keep in mind that the two economies are quite different. Taiwan's manufacturing industries is being undercut by cheaper exports from the Mainland. Many Taiwanese firms have relocated their manufacturing plants to the mainland and there is a growing concern of youth un/under-employment in Taiwan. This will be a tricky problem for the Taiwanese government to handle.

    Hong Kong economy has always been reliant on it's role as an international finance centre. But as you should know, there is deep concern over the elite control of many aspects of the economy. Thus far, the fact that a big chunk of HK's economy is controlled by only a few mega-rich families has been an ever-growing source of tension in the city. This will likely only get worse when the property tycoon stooge Henry Tang is elected as the next CE. The essential problem is that he represents first and foremost the interest of those few property tycoon elite interest, which is not representative of HK's interest at large.

    It is not impossible to imagine a scenario where Henry Tang will damage HK's overall economic well-being by placing the interest of certain rich folks over the the rest of HK. The inability to distinguish what is good for his rich buddies and what is good for HK overall will be his undoing (and also HK's undoing).

    So which place (HK or Taiwan) has the greater challenge? You tell me.

    Last edited by Watercooler; 15-02-2012 at 06:10 PM.
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  5. #5

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    This thread hurts my brain


  6. #6

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    Packy, I've been hearing that for 10 years and I will be hearing that for another 10 years, then another 10 years.