View Poll Results: TEMBIN will hit Hong Kong ....

Voters
32. You may not vote on this poll
  • As a big b#startd T10

    2 6.25%
  • Woohoo! A T8

    2 6.25%
  • Woohoo, (if you're a kindergarten teacher!) a T3

    0 0%
  • Another rubbish T1

    5 15.63%
  • in your dreams pal, it will miss us completely.....

    15 46.88%
  • I don't know!

    3 9.38%
  • I don't care!

    5 15.63%
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TEMBIN

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  1. #21

    Join Date
    May 2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    Actually there are three though the third is likely to be absorbed by the second:

    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/t2kgraphsat.gif

    They are labelling the first one as a "howler" which means nasty.
    At typhoon intensity and moving very VERY slowly, it certainly has the makings of something quite ugly, Hull.

  2. #22

    Join Date
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    New update from HKO says it will hit Taiwan as a "Super Typhoon". Very ugly.

    Tropical cyclone track information - GIS version


  3. #23

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  4. #24

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    Quote Originally Posted by penguinsix:
    And along with the image, an excerpt from the Prognostic Reasoning - looks bad for Taiwan indeed!

    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
    PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
    B. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO NORTH-
    NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 36.
    NEAR TAU 36, A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE KOREAN
    REGION RESULTING IN A TEMPORARY SLOW-DOWN OR PERHAPS QUASI-
    STATIONARY MOTION EAST OF TAIWAN; HOWEVER, THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
    SHORT-LIVED AS THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY TRANSIT EASTWARD.
    AFTER TAU 48, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
    EASTERN CHINA AND THE EAST CHINA SEA PROVIDING A WESTWARD STEERING
    INFLUENCE. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU
    72 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND SHOULD REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
    120 KNOTS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN.
    C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 15W SHOULD ACCELERATE AND TRACK
    WESTWARD INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT AND WILL MAKE ITS SECOND LANDFALL
    NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG NEAR TAU 96. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
    MAINTAIN MINIMAL TYPHOON STRENGTH AS IT EMERGES OVER THE TAIWAN
    STRAIT BUT SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SECOND LANDFALL DUE TO
    FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
    GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 220 NM SPREAD AT TAU 120; HOWEVER, THE UKMO
    MODEL ERRONEOUSLY DRIVES THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO THE STR AND IS
    DISCOUNTED. ADDITIONALLY, THE GFS MODEL INDICATES WEAK BINARY
    INTERACTION WITH TS 16W AFTER TAU 96, WHICH IS DEEMED UNLIKELY AT
    THIS POINT. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
    TRACK.//

  5. #25

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    Yes feel very sorry for the people of Taiwan, bet they won't be celebrating a day off!


  6. #26

    Join Date
    Jun 2011
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    371

    Taiwan has had some very bad weather recently so I am sure I speak for everyone when I wish the people of Taiwan the best possible outcome.

    Fiona in HKG likes this.

  7. #27

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    Having lived through numerous typhoons and a couple of major earthquakes in Taiwan, I do feel sorry for the people there ...
    But IMHO, the whole culture that has developed there of life is cheap/ near enough is good enough/ as long as it looks OK, means that damage and loss of life that would produce outrage here is considered par for the course there. Stuff like building a "luxury" housing development on a hillside using simple slab floors - NO foundation work of any kind - it survived its first typhoon but literally slid right down the hill during its second. Only ONE main electricity transmission line between the southern power stations and Taipei - again no proper foundation work done - and a minor landslide left a city of 2 million without power for most of a week. Mixing cement for major construction projects with sea water - why not? Saving on costs by stuffing concrete pillars with empty petrol drums ... the list could go on for pages, and this is from the last 20 years, not the poverty-ridden 1950s. The money - public and private - is there, but the will seems non-existent.

    Last edited by chingleutsch; 20-08-2012 at 08:29 PM.

  8. #28

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    Jun 2010
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matt_NT:
    the best possible outcome.
    T8 on Friday morning

  9. #29

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    The track seems a bit further north today from the JTWC (US Navy). Looks like we'll get a bit of rain, on Saturday.

    Does any country in the region use "Hurricane Hunter" aircraft? Specially modified aircraft that fly into the typhoons to collect data?


  10. #30

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    Oct 2009
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    Hong Kong
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    This is interesting stuff, I am commenting only to get the updates! :P


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