New update from HKO says it will hit Taiwan as a "Super Typhoon". Very ugly.
Tropical cyclone track information - GIS version
And along with the image, an excerpt from the Prognostic Reasoning - looks bad for Taiwan indeed!
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 36.
NEAR TAU 36, A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE KOREAN
REGION RESULTING IN A TEMPORARY SLOW-DOWN OR PERHAPS QUASI-
STATIONARY MOTION EAST OF TAIWAN; HOWEVER, THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT-LIVED AS THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY TRANSIT EASTWARD.
AFTER TAU 48, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
EASTERN CHINA AND THE EAST CHINA SEA PROVIDING A WESTWARD STEERING
INFLUENCE. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU
72 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND SHOULD REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
120 KNOTS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 15W SHOULD ACCELERATE AND TRACK
WESTWARD INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT AND WILL MAKE ITS SECOND LANDFALL
NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG NEAR TAU 96. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN MINIMAL TYPHOON STRENGTH AS IT EMERGES OVER THE TAIWAN
STRAIT BUT SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SECOND LANDFALL DUE TO
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 220 NM SPREAD AT TAU 120; HOWEVER, THE UKMO
MODEL ERRONEOUSLY DRIVES THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO THE STR AND IS
DISCOUNTED. ADDITIONALLY, THE GFS MODEL INDICATES WEAK BINARY
INTERACTION WITH TS 16W AFTER TAU 96, WHICH IS DEEMED UNLIKELY AT
THIS POINT. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK.//
Taiwan has had some very bad weather recently so I am sure I speak for everyone when I wish the people of Taiwan the best possible outcome.
Having lived through numerous typhoons and a couple of major earthquakes in Taiwan, I do feel sorry for the people there ...
But IMHO, the whole culture that has developed there of life is cheap/ near enough is good enough/ as long as it looks OK, means that damage and loss of life that would produce outrage here is considered par for the course there. Stuff like building a "luxury" housing development on a hillside using simple slab floors - NO foundation work of any kind - it survived its first typhoon but literally slid right down the hill during its second. Only ONE main electricity transmission line between the southern power stations and Taipei - again no proper foundation work done - and a minor landslide left a city of 2 million without power for most of a week. Mixing cement for major construction projects with sea water - why not? Saving on costs by stuffing concrete pillars with empty petrol drums ... the list could go on for pages, and this is from the last 20 years, not the poverty-ridden 1950s. The money - public and private - is there, but the will seems non-existent.
Last edited by chingleutsch; 20-08-2012 at 08:29 PM.
The track seems a bit further north today from the JTWC (US Navy). Looks like we'll get a bit of rain, on Saturday.
Does any country in the region use "Hurricane Hunter" aircraft? Specially modified aircraft that fly into the typhoons to collect data?
This is interesting stuff, I am commenting only to get the updates! :P