Typhoon Season 2013

[INXS]

T1 now...T3 to come I expect...

[virago]

T1 now...T3 to come I expect...

It's path is moving towards Hainan and more than likely not hit the 400kms radius mark from HK.

[richteralan]

It's path is moving towards Hainan and more than likely not hit the 400kms radius mark from HK.

It's now taking a more northern path.

[Claire ex-ax]

"A band of thundery showers will move across Hong Kong shortly and bring squally showers to the territory in the next couple of hours. Members of the public should be on the alert."

[richteralan]

Looks like we are going to have T8? The high pressure system over Vietnam is dissipated.

[Claire ex-ax]

T3 up.


10chars

[Fiona in HKG]

From the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre..... http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

Based on this very doubtful we'll see T8

WDPN31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (JEBI) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 09W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 524 NM EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH THE BULK
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND STRONGER WINDS DISPLACED OVER THE
PERIPHERY. MSI CONTINUES TO DEPICT TWO DISTINCT CIRCULATIONS WITH
THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED NEAR 16.2N
113.6E AND A SMALL, EXPOSED CIRCULATION NEAR 16.5N 113.8E. MSI
INDICATES THAT THE SMALLER, EXPOSED CIRCULATION MAY BE ORBITING THE
LARGER, DOMINANT CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
PRIMARY LLCC, WHICH IS POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF
THE MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
DUE TO THE MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM
PGTW. ADDITIONALLY, SCATTEROMETRY PASSES FROM 010223Z AND 010450Z
CONFIRM THE 35 KNOT INITIAL INTENSITY AS WELL AS CLEARLY DEPICT THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH WEAKER WINDS AT THE
CORE OF THE LLCC AND STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
EXPANDED WIND FIELD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND STRONG OUTFLOW THAT IS ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL LOCATED NORTH OF
TAIWAN. TS 09W IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
(STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 09W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AFTER PASSAGE OF THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH, THE STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RE-BUILD OVER
CHINA PRODUCING A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH FASTER TRACK
SPEEDS. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH ONLY
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE SPREAD OF MODEL TRACKERS, THEREFORE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS PRIOR TO TRACKING
OVER HAINAN ISLAND. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE,
THE BROAD, MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE NATURE OF THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW DEVELOPMENT. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN INTERACTING
WITH LAND AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THEN RE-EMERGE OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN
NEAR TAU 36. TS 09W WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM BY
APPROXIMATELY TAU 48 AND WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO THE
INCREASED FRICTION ASSOCIATED WITH LAND INTERACTION.//
NNNN

[INXS]

From the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre..... http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

Based on this very doubtful we'll see T8

WDPN31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (JEBI) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 09W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 524 NM EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH THE BULK
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND STRONGER WINDS DISPLACED OVER THE
PERIPHERY. MSI CONTINUES TO DEPICT TWO DISTINCT CIRCULATIONS WITH
THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED NEAR 16.2N
113.6E AND A SMALL, EXPOSED CIRCULATION NEAR 16.5N 113.8E. MSI
INDICATES THAT THE SMALLER, EXPOSED CIRCULATION MAY BE ORBITING THE
LARGER, DOMINANT CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
PRIMARY LLCC, WHICH IS POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF
THE MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
DUE TO THE MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM
PGTW. ADDITIONALLY, SCATTEROMETRY PASSES FROM 010223Z AND 010450Z
CONFIRM THE 35 KNOT INITIAL INTENSITY AS WELL AS CLEARLY DEPICT THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH WEAKER WINDS AT THE
CORE OF THE LLCC AND STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
EXPANDED WIND FIELD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND STRONG OUTFLOW THAT IS ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL LOCATED NORTH OF
TAIWAN. TS 09W IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
(STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 09W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AFTER PASSAGE OF THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH, THE STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RE-BUILD OVER
CHINA PRODUCING A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH FASTER TRACK
SPEEDS. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH ONLY
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE SPREAD OF MODEL TRACKERS, THEREFORE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS PRIOR TO TRACKING
OVER HAINAN ISLAND. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE,
THE BROAD, MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE NATURE OF THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW DEVELOPMENT. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN INTERACTING
WITH LAND AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THEN RE-EMERGE OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN
NEAR TAU 36. TS 09W WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM BY
APPROXIMATELY TAU 48 AND WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO THE
INCREASED FRICTION ASSOCIATED WITH LAND INTERACTION.//
NNNN

Not doubting their forecasting skills and it's probably accurate of course but this report is several hours old..., just so you know...

It wouldn't really take much more than jog for a T8...

Gusts exceeding 80kph @ Cheung Chau...

[richteralan]

uh oh....Now its moving toward NW instead of N.

[TheBrit]

Just attempted to sneak out for dinner pre-typhoon and lost. Got two thirds of the way before the skies darkened and unleashed their load. At least got a swim in this afternoon before the T3 went up.