Super Typhoon USAGI

[richteralan]

Do you guys have hurricane parties or similar like they do in Florida?

We can do one if you wanna host

[croash]

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/dat...7_ensmodel.gif

Current modeling showing the path towards Hong Kong.

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[MovingIn07]

Mr min is adding ropes and taking down the bimini. As we are off to Aus today, he's preparing for the worst!

[jim5130]

The Rabbit ( Usagi) is coming on Sunday, or Monday. Be preapred!!!!

[Claire ex-ax]

Pretty tight on the track forecasting at the moment.

[rathunt]

I thought Typhoon season was over for the year? Clearly not. Thanks for bumping... Actually this thread featuring on the new comments section of Geoxpat is definitely a far more accurate early warning system than any meteorical early warning system that I have come across (unless it is just Watercooler and/or TB arguing in circles about days off work of course).

[chingleutsch]

Traditionally, typhoon season doesn't end until Chung Yeung (the autumn grave cleaning festival next month), but I've seen a couple of typhoon signals go up later than that over the years.

[Claire ex-ax]

68 pages... on the weather.

[Watercooler]

]I thought Typhoon season was over for the year?[/B] Clearly not. Thanks for bumping... Actually this thread featuring on the new comments section of Geoxpat is definitely a far more accurate early warning system than any meteorical early warning system that I have come across (unless it is just Watercooler and/or TB arguing in circles about days off work of course).

Actually this is still the height of the typhoon season. Normally the typhoons peak in frequency in late summer and early fall. The more powerful "super" typhoons are more likely to occur later in the season than early summer. Which is around this time of year.

As for how much it will impact HK, very hard to say at this point, there is alot of unpredictability, and forecast track confidence is low, according to JTWC:

DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THE FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO CONW,
BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER, IN ORDER TO DISCOUNT THE POLEWARD OUTLIERS AND
FAVORS GFS AND ECMWF WHICH HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH A PASSAGE
THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIT. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK AS THE STR CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND RE-ORIENT ITSELF

[reprazent]

Can't deny that the current forecast looks "promising", for now. Anyone remember MEGI? if i remember correctly it nearly hit us late october a few years ago.