Super Typhoon USAGI

[penguinsix]

T8 early this afternoon?

When UTOR was 310km away, the HKO issued the T8 for that relatively mild storm.

At the moment, USAGI is 430km away moving at about 18km per hour. That means in about 6 or 7 hours, it will be 310 km away. So sometime around noon to 1:00pm?

Technically, according to HKO, when 4 of the 8 wind speed gauges used for Typhoons hit a certain level, the T8 is issued. But I think it's not necessarily that cut and dried.

[Yeahbaby]

I think we'll name our next child Usagi.

[shri]

>> I think we'll name our next child Usagi.

I'd hold out to see how many people are killed by the storm before naming your kid.

[virago]

I think T8 will be raised in the next 1-2 hours. It's going straight for HK (if not 50-70 kms north of HK) and doesn't look like changing track.

[shri]

Was unusual to see the Aberdeen waterfront packed with boats. Sign that all the fishermen are taking USAGI a little bit more seriously than some of the previous storms.

[Yeahbaby]

Here's a projection of Usagi of it when landfall :

http://www.wunderground.com/hurrican...oon-Usagi?MR=1

Hopefully it loses more energy over the coming hours.

[closedcasket]

Any guesses/thoughts in regards to flights leaving HKIA tomorrow?

Morning? afternoon? Evening? Not at all?

[Yeahbaby]

Another related article by Dr. Jeff Masters: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Jef...?entrynum=2529

Dangerous Category 3 Typhoon Usagi is charging through the Luzon Strait between Taiwan and the Philippines on its way towards China, where landfall is expected early Monday morning local time (near 2 pm EDT on Sunday) near Hong Hong. The typhoon battered the northern Philippine Batanes Islands overnight with wind gusts of up to 155 mph (250 kph), ripping down power lines and damaging crops, according to the South China Morning Post. Torrential rains of over a foot (305 mm) have fallen in 24 hours over eastern Taiwan, where Usagi's counterclockwise flow of moist air rode up over the high mountains of the island. Usagi reached its peak strength on Thursday, taking advantage of low wind shear and very warm waters 30°C with high heat content, to intensify to a Category 5 super typhoon with 160 mph winds. On Friday, Usagi began an eyewall replacement cycle that the typhoon is still attempting to complete. This process, where the inner eyewall collapses and a new, larger-diameter eyewall forms from an outer spiral band, typically causes a reduction in intensity by one Saffir-Simpson category, but spreads out the storm's hurricane-force winds over a larger area. Satellite images show that Usagi has lost its symmetry and the cloudtops have warmed, indicating weakening; this weakening is likely due to disruption of the low-level inflow by the high mountains of Taiwan. Wind shear is low, near 10 knots, but ocean temperatures have cooled to about 29°C, and the heat content of the waters is much lower than on Friday.

And here, though his opinion is more on his prediction:

Forecast for Usagi
Continued slow weakening of Usagi is likely as the storm tries to complete its eyewall replacement cycle as ocean temperatures cool to 28°C and the heat content of the water diminishes. By the time Usagi reaches the coast near Hong Hong in the early morning hours on Monday (local time), the storm should be at Category 2 strength. This is still strong enough to pose a formidable storm surge, wind, and heavy rain threat to China, and Usagi is likely to be one of the five strongest typhoons to affect Hong Hong in the past 50 years. If the eye of the storm hits just west of Hong Kong, a large storm surge capable of causing over a billion dollars in damage will inundate portions of the coast along the bay that Hong Kong, Macau, and Shenzhen share. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, will be posting a summary of Hong Hong's typhoon history on Saturday afternoon around 4 pm EDT. The most notable typhoon to hit Hong Kong in the past 50 years was Typhoon Rose of 1971, which sank over 300 boats and killed 110 people.

[usehername]

I think T8 will be raised in the next 1-2 hours. It's going straight for HK (if not 50-70 kms north of HK) and doesn't look like changing track.

They're saying afternoon so I think we have to wait a bit yet.

Some of the green netting has already come down on the construction site next door which is hardly reassuring.

[Beanieskis]

HKO now predicting it will make landfall east of HK with winds from north, so HK will be somewhat sheltered.