According to a SCMP report, there is now 90 per cent of El Nino arriving "this year, according to fresh weather forecasts." which translates into HK getting later arrival of typhoons and more rain in winter and spring (what it didn't mention is that it may also mean less rain in summer-according to one of my friend at the weather forum). The report claims that this El Nino would rival the 97-98 El Nino (which was the strongest in recorded history).
Of course, they cover their asses by saying “ what is very much unknowable at this stage is whether this year’s El Nino will be a small event, a moderate event - that’s most likely - or a really major event,†adding the picture will become clearer in the next month or two. “It is which way the winds blow that determines what happens next and there is always a random element to the winds.â€
http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/a...as-90pc-chance
So what so you think? If this El Nino, if it does occur, will it have a major, moderate or minor impact? And will typhoons arrive really later in the year (or not at all)?