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About the Virus - why so many see lais affected?

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  1. #1

    About the Virus - why so many see lais affected?

    Don't know if this has been mentioned, but hasn't anyone else noticed, it seems the cases 95% would involve those who are living in certain areas - Kowloon side, NT especially and just watching the press con fairly regularly it seems these are mainly "see lais" who "only go to the market" or go to local restaurants. Either this or other manual work people, taxi drivers, cabin crew and related staff.

    Why is there never cases where an expat, who lives in wanchai, a banker/lawyer/top executive mentioned in these cases? Or someone who is a marketing/HR director, lives in mid levels etc etc? I think you know what I mean

    I've got a theory that there are many many more people with the virus, but partly down to the HK work culture, very long hours, very intense deadlines that people may get the symptoms, it goes away, they never bother to go to the Dr to get it checked. Anyone else notice this also?


  2. #2

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    can you show me the actual statistics that led you to this conclusion?


  3. #3

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    My thoughts:

    - many locals eat in restaurants with lower hygiene standards and worse ventilation compared to places in expat areas, and speak loudly
    - locals have more multigenerational socializing
    - virus may be spreading through pipes or vents in poor quality housing

    The OT&P study done with HKU showed a very low level of antibodies in the HK population and we just tested 1.8m and found 23 positives. So it doesn’t seem to me there are many unknown cases in Hong Kong at all.


  4. #4

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    Add to the above the time and inclination for maskless socialising in restaurants and elsewhere and it’s quite logical. Plus the demographic is somewhat consistent with this https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/co...irmed_in_hong/

    Could be a coincidence, but maybe not. If you study the restaurant list closely you can draw your own conclusions.


  5. #5

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    I don't follow the reports but if the trend is as you observe then that fits in with my expectations about who is most likely to be infected:

    Factors that spring to mind:
    1) The older the individual, the more likely you to catch covid (weaker immune system = more easily susceptible)

    2) The more 'Local' HK people are the less conscious about personal space they seem to be, they're more likely to stand close to others, talk very loudly etc.

    3) Comparative wealth - The less wealthy, the more likely you are to live, eat, travel and socialise in crowded and less sanitary conditions. And wet markets must surely be a better harbour of infections than offices in IFC.

    4) Vitamin D - Evidence suggests there's a strong correlation between both case likelihood and case severity with declining vitamin D levels. I can imagine the more traditional people are in their mindset, the more likely they are to eschew the sun.

    5) Lower income is also associated with lower levels of health overall, more likely to smoke etc.


  6. #6

    One of my examples is about a typical expat but the other example may or may not be (the HR/Marketing director, for arguments sake). And I don't think it's necessarily locals / expats is the main factor imo. Pilots / cabin crew I think it's fair to say is very high risk anyway
    @Sage I agree those factors also can contribute.

    With the 1.8m people who did take the test, I'm just aware that this still means 6.2m didn't take the test. Even if they did or didn't, we hear of people having a sore throat then the symptoms go away after a few days or those indeed without symptoms. Back to my Op, just a theory that there are lot more ppl in the corporate community who don't have time to take the Universal test during weekdays obviously and weekend it may be booked out or at least v busy. Or they may just not have the inclination to do so with those symptoms they experienced already passed


  7. #7

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    I was thinking about the 3rd wave of infections and the areas infected as well. I agree with merchantms
    Also, one of the strong contenders for bringing in the 3rd wave virus was the shipping crew that was allowed into hk with no testing or tracking. When these sailors come into HK for a few days waiting for a crew change, I don't think they are hanging out in central. They are probably saying in cheap accommodation fairly close to the shipping ports. And eating at cheaper restaurants etc.
    At the beginning of the 3rd wave a taxi driver was one of the early links and a restaurant he frequented. These ship crew could have taken the taxi or eaten at that restaurant.

    AsianXpat0 and HK_Katherine like this.

  8. #8

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    Quote Originally Posted by TsuenWanexp:
    Back to my Op, just a theory that there are lot more ppl in the corporate community who don't have time to take the Universal test during weekdays obviously and weekend it may be booked out or at least v busy. Or they may just not have the inclination to do so with those symptoms they experienced already passed
    Or perhaps the corporate community was more aware they would get sent to a hospital with their immediate family shuffled away to a quarantine aka "detention centre" if they tested positive.

    It is interesting to think about why certain socioeconomic groups are impacted more than others in a city as dense as HK where there's nowhere to run away from a theoretically indiscriminate virus.
    HK_Katherine and Sage like this.

  9. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by seirin:
    Or perhaps the corporate community was more aware they would get sent to a hospital with their immediate family shuffled away to a quarantine aka "detention centre" if they tested positive.
    .
    This is certainly the feeling in every expat I know who didn't get tested. None of them were worried about time off work or the chinese getting their DNA. It was all about not being imprisoned if they tested positive. I think if you live in a tiny flat you share with many family members, the Government hospitals / quarantine are a bit like a holiday.....
    caipiroska likes this.

  10. #10

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    Simply more females to males within 25-65 age range

    Age structure:
    0-14 years: 12.38% (male 471,983 /female 420,977)
    15-24 years: 9.89% (male 372,991 /female 340,221)
    25-54 years: 43.96% (male 1,354,676 /female 1,816,303)
    55-64 years: 16.64% (male 571,329 /female 628,774)
    65 years and over: 17.14% (male 580,248 /female 655,836) (2018 est.)


    https://www.indexmundi.com/hong_kong/age_structure.html

    Last edited by ArrynField; 18-09-2020 at 01:46 AM.

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