View Poll Results: Hong Kong Property Bubble burst - 2011

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50. You may not vote on this poll
  • There is no Property Bubble

    9 18.00%
  • May burst by end of 2011

    8 16.00%
  • May burst by end of 2012

    17 34.00%
  • May burst by end of 2014

    3 6.00%
  • May burst by end of 2016

    3 6.00%
  • No Clue - Try your luck by investing !!

    10 20.00%
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Hong Kong Property bubble

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  1. #21

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    Quote Originally Posted by shri
    Highly recommend watching a.documentary called Inside Job if you think that democracy will fix financial problems.
    No system is perfect... however there is a lot of empirical evidence to show democracy is the least worst system we have for governing ourselves. If you take the aggregate achievements and aggregate problems from different forms of government it is hard to think of any other system people would choose to live in.

    Democracy isn't perfect, it might not even be good in some situations but - on average - it's definitely less worse than living in a communist state or under a dictatorship.
    Freetrader and Dreadnought like this.

  2. #22

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    I sort of agree. However I feel the evidence.is biased by an age where there was some honor amongst the thieves. There is too.much money involved in modern elections for the democratic process to be honest.


  3. #23

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    Yes, I agree that big business has too much influence, however I do wonder if it was ever thus so? Hard to tell when a lot of what goes on is behind closed doors.

    All systems can run better or worse, but democracy seems to give the best chance of changing the system when it does become too unrepresentative.


  4. #24

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    Quote Originally Posted by shri
    Highly recommend watching a.documentary called Inside Job if you think that democracy will fix financial problems.

    The bankers and property guys own both sides of the fence and often the fence.
    Actually, it demostrates what happens when the government intervenes in the property market...

  5. #25

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    Quote Originally Posted by shri
    I sort of agree. However I feel the evidence.is biased by an age where there was some honor amongst the thieves. There is too.much money involved in modern elections for the democratic process to be honest.
    Huh? An argument that is based on the premise that democracy is flawed does not lead to the conclusion that a dictatorship is better. The worst democracy is better than the best dictatorship. So the rich West has the financial meltdown - which was basically where a lot of people borrowed a lot of money they couldn't repay during a property bubbled - and it caused a temprorary crisis and worsened a year-long recession. Oh, and by the way, the West is still rich, even if they are promising to pay themselves social benefits that their societies can't afford over the long run.

    On the other hand, dictatorshps over the past century or so have, oh, well, let's see, there's Burma, North Korea, Communist China, the USSR, Ho Chi Minh's DRVN, Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan...let's see that's about 200 million or so dead. Is that enough for you?

    The fundamental diffierence is that there is no incentive, in a dictatorship, to make things better for anyone except the ruling clique. I'll take a housing crisis over a dictatorship any day of the week, thanks.

  6. #26

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    I just returned from a boat trip, organized with some very wealthy mainland Chinese. We actually spoke about property. Here is what they said.

    Everything in HK, is ultimately controlled by China.

    China wants to see stable growth in HK, but nothing too excessive.

    Their prediction is that HK property, for a range of reasons, will continue to grow 20-30% for the next 3 year or so.

    However, in the meantime, they also think China, at some point, will keep pushing to control prices, and they think ultimately, perhaps 2014 or 2015, various factors will ultimately lead to a dramatic reversal. (In their opinion, all the major developers already know about this).

    So, from an investment perspective, they suggest to keep buying almost any HK property, and stock of HK property developer, and then to sell out at 2014, and wait for a correction in 2015 to start to rebuy again.

    These people on the boat, are what I would call super wealthy. I am not sure, but probaly all worth 200m HKD and upwards, with strong connections to China leadership, so I am included to folloiw their suggestion, and buy now, hold for a few years, and sell in 2014. As for property stocks, its the well known developers they suggest, like Sun Hung Kai, Henderson Land, and Cheung Kong.


  7. #27

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    Thanks chateau, for another classic post. So you know some "wealthy Chinese people" who recommend 'buy-buy-buy!" Sure, that's good enough for me. Where do I sign???


  8. #28

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    What happens to Hong Kong when the Chinese property bubble bursts?


  9. #29

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    Quote Originally Posted by drumbrake
    What happens to Hong Kong when the Chinese property bubble bursts?

    Hmmm.

    Communist Government with huge population that need jobs and housing housing.
    A whole new population of mega rich Chinese.
    Government approves/nay orders huge construction projects to go ahead at a furious pace, backhanders and taxes paid to the Government, jobs created for huge population.
    New rich encouraged to invest in the new developments at over inflated prices.
    Bubble bursts and a massive correction allows the lower earners to finally buy and move into the new cities for next to nothing.

    The wealth is redistributed among the poor!!
    It's not bad actually is it?

  10. #30

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    Quote Originally Posted by drumbrake
    What happens to Hong Kong when the Chinese property bubble bursts?

    great video.
    theres a "ghost city" in zhongshan i pass every week where they keep adding more and more buildings to this enormous complex. Its about 99% empty, shops and residents, and can hold probably 1 million people. but they keep on building.

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