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Hong Kong property Vs Marketing indication

  1. #1

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    Hong Kong property Vs Marketing indication

    All markets signs are showing slowdown signs and future problems but SCMP and Standard news papers want everyone to believe the property prices started going up.

    All below show one should be careful about property market and possible bubble but many sources are trying to show property prices will go up.

    Is it real ? should we believe these ? I am totally confused.

    1. HK Stock exchange lack of IPOs since 2009
    2. Drop in retail sales after - worst in 3.5 years
    3. Possible worst recession

    Last edited by PKS_2000; 01-04-2019 at 10:11 PM.

  2. #2

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    The Centa Leading index shows prices picking up again

    Centa-City Index


  3. #3

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    Its a manipulated and rigged market from Govt to Developers to Banking to Agents to Media, secondary transactions are historically low, agents employed are very high, agencies surviving on commission from mostly primary transactions, they have to talk up the market for survival and benefit of everyone in the chain, developers are rushing to offload inventories.. Primary flats much more expensive than nearby secondary flats (i.e. ready to move in) and HKMA says % of secondary loan from developers is very low so why people are still rushing for primary? Who are these buyers driving the market and what/where is the real demand? Make your own guess..

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  4. #4

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    and from what i have heard, the tail inventory of primary stocks... the developers putting alot up for auction.. their auction scheme is, sell you at the stated fixed price, but will give you a % rebate.. your auction based on your required rebate... 5%/10%/15%/20%..etc...

    i.e. the transacted price finally announced will be fixed but the actual net price can be much lower... 8-) collusion all way round

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  5. #5
    bdw
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    Quote Originally Posted by PKS_2000
    All markets signs are showing slowdown signs and future problems but SCMP and Standard news papers want everyone to believe the property prices started going up.
    I don't believe the newspapers for a second, but I do look at the CCI and the fact is that prices have not only stopped dropping in the last few months, they are skyrocketing again going up 4% a month now. I watched the graph below quite closely the last few months, and at beginning of February this was all red, by Feb 22nd was mainly blue, and a few weeks ago on March 22nd was 100% blue and showing very strong price increases that you would never see anywhere else in the world, 4 fucking percent a month increase is a massive turnaround anywhere in the world except HK it seems.

    If you look at the trend since 2008 there is a very clear pattern. Prices have gone "up a lot", "down a little", "up a lot", "down a little", "up a lot", "down a little" many times over. Now from October 2018 to Feb 2019 they went "down a little".

    So right now, HK remains following the same pattern they have for the last 10 years. It's almost too predicable now.

    The question now is, will HK continue to follow this pattern (probably manipulated and rigged as @nivantj suggests) or will they now break this pattern and start falling.

    I have bet my house on the fact they will rise (I am not selling my house now ).

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  6. #6

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    The only problem with just looking at CCL number on thin volume is like looking at survey result with 5% sampling data representing whole population/trend which makes it very hard to judge what is in the pipeline (more real buyers waiting to buy or more speculators waiting to cash in)!! Also vacancy rate is increasing (51k+ vacant) first time in years and 20k+/year properties hitting the market in coming years so interesting time ahead.. 4% increase on thin volume is very much possible and also explains who are in the play so personally i wouldn't read too much into CCL in vacuum without looking at other factors..


  7. #7

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    Overall averages might go up, new property might go up, the developers can simply sweeten the mortgage offer to keep prices high. Would you rather buy a 30-40 year old building with 50% down or a brand new building with 10-15% down.


  8. #8

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    @nivantj, Centa aren't the only ones offering statistics, there are many other available showing something similar to what bdw is mentioning.
    This one from Midland, the correlation with the HSI you were referring to the other day is amazing, with a 6 month delay in the reporting.

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  9. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by jrkob
    @nivantj, Centa aren't the only ones offering statistics, there are many other available showing something similar to what bdw is mentioning.
    Yes many others including RVD providing property price indexes but i just took CCL as an example, the underlying point was any index movement based on thin volume is vague representation of overall picture (i.e. Hypothetically selective estate might have random high value transactions while nearby similar estate might have 10 sellers wanting to sell at similar price but no takers)..

  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by freeier
    and from what i have heard, the tail inventory of primary stocks... the developers putting alot up for auction.. their auction scheme is, sell you at the stated fixed price, but will give you a % rebate.. your auction based on your required rebate... 5%/10%/15%/20%..etc...i.e. the transacted price finally announced will be fixed but the actual net price can be much lower... 8-) collusion all way round
    Most expensive properties on earth have come down to this..

    For example, St Martin, developed by Sun Hung Kai Properties (0016) in Tai Po, sparked hot discussion earlier as it adopted the "rock-paper-scissors" game as a way to determine the ultimate purchaser if multiple buyers submitted the same bid.
    Developers warned on tender sales - The Standard