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Property predictions

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  1. #21

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    Exactly what you expect to hear at the top of the market .....

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-25/quiet-panic-kyle-bass-hong-kongs-looming-financial-political-crisis


  2. #22

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    Quote Originally Posted by mgi:
    "In the past year or so Hong Kong has spent 80% of its reserves". Don't have the figures to hand but is that correct?

    How much money had he put into this " massive" bet?

  3. #23

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    if i am not wrong its in their rules that they will spend at least 80% of their revenue... for hk government


  4. #24

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    Original Post Deleted
    And would you treat with any credibility financial advice from someone who produces such basic errors?

  5. #25

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    spoke to a FX chap on this newsletter. his comment was, after searching into bloomberg, that this guy kind of like a one or two trick pony... he called it right during the GFC, then his funds went up to around 1.5b or so... but since then it has been a downhill slide... IIRC last i heard its like 300 or 200m USD.. so its not that impactful even if he managed to convince anyone to do anything.


    Anyway i think i know what is the discrepancies.. he is likely looking at the aggregate balance which has fallen from, was it 200b ? to the current 50b ? at one time aggregate balance was at 400~500b..

    But he failed to recognize that the aggregate balance is not the reserve, and there is actually a huge pile of exchange bills sitting at the back that can be injected into the market almost immediately by HKMA...

    That said, the Hibor movement recently is quite weird.. not sure who is playing punk with it.

    Last edited by freeier; 30-04-2019 at 06:34 PM.

  6. #26

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    Original Post Deleted
    what hkex pipeline.. but its not that logical..
    if you have a hkex pipeline that's really heavy (e.g. chinese literature, xiao mi), you usually know when the money are needed..
    and the requirement is very short term, maybe 1 week or so... so you will still be placing out your huge liquidity into the market for weekly or biweekly deposits..

    but apparently this chap that is holding on to all this money, hogs his cash for the whole day until maybe like 5pm.. then he goes around and placing overnight for these bunch of cash in his hand... just doesn't sound like some logical behavior of a trader.. unless he is baiting for someone to risk at him and short the market...

  7. #27

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    Original Post Deleted
    100-200k used to go a long way on decoration. Now labor costs are higher and requirements for scaffolding and the likes increase costs dramatically. You could expect to pay 500k upwards on decoration easily.

  8. #28

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    Decoration is not cheap and when people are faced with the decision of multiple flats in the same bldg, they likely choose the one that suits their family. And buyers are limited, not like there is an unlimited supply of buyers. I have seen some decent renovated 1-2 bedroom flats from 3 or 3+helpers and they looked nice. But always sad to see the water stains (e.g. water leaking) and floors that pop up when you walk throughout the home.