Following the issues with the wrong way bet it would appear Cathay 'changed' their strategy to one of hedging, which would suggest that previously they were betting on which way fuel would go.
“Now, we have a policy which is very clear and is based on hedging seeking to do two things: one is to smooth out the peaks and troughs a little, in other words volatility management, and the other is sustainability management. That is to make sure we either buy or have options to call fuel at no more than our estimated break-even fuel price.â€
Happy to be proved wrong if you have evidence that the Cathay strategy before the time of the losses did not 'tinker' with forward bets based on their view of forward oil prices.