Can Obama beat McCain?

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  1. #31

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    This is a very good question. Can Obama beat McCain? I am not certain I can make a case for Obama right now and not without seeing the tickets for both parties.

    Arguments in favour of McCain might be:

    > Given a choice between two Senators, voters choose the more the more experienced guy.

    > Americans (except for hard core Democrats and some black voters) might not be quite ready for a black person in the White House. On this latter point, there is a danger of this thinking becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy among voters who might like to give Obama a chance but don't want to vote for a loser. Independents might think that.

    > America is a still a house divided and black and white are still wary of each other - at least those who tend to vote Republican or fear crime which is pretty much everyone.

    > Voters see McCain as the best of a bad lot so vote for him.

    > Voters are still afraid of the big bad terrorist and they love their Republican war Presidents. They see Dems soft on this stuff.

    > McCain's campaign can paint a picture of Obama with the likes of every black leader they don't like now or hated in the past. Malcolm X or Farrakahn or whoever else is scary. Obama/ Osama has a nice ring to it.

    Arguments in favour of Obama winning:

    > Voters want to distance themselves from the Bush 'third term' - Iraq and economics and all those other Bush screw ups and incompetencies.

    > They feel that it is time for a change to a new politics that is less divisive.

    > Black voters turn out in droves including blacks who vote Republican and vote for Obama.

    > Americans decide that it is time to turn inward and worry about themselves and not interfere around the world and they see Obama as the guy to lead this new approach.

    > Obama's folks can paint of picture of McCain as old - they used a phrase about McCain but I can't recall what it was but McCain's people reacted to it being about painting him as old - even old people can be persuaded that being too old is not good for a top leader. This has some drawbacks.

    ---
    Conclusion - McCain wins. Obama can win only in this scenario if every black voter possible registers, and votes for him and there are no hanging chads or millions of disallowed voters/votes.

    Last edited by Football16; 13-05-2008 at 07:43 PM.

  2. #32

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    How much do we know about Obama - positively or negatively?


  3. #33

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    Quote Originally Posted by Football16:
    Conclusion - McCain wins. Obama can win only in this scenario if every black voter possible registers, and votes for him and there are no hanging chads or millions of disallowed voters/votes.
    True that Obama's supporters aren't known for their history of actually showing up on election day. Quite good at the primary thing, though.
    Obama also wins if the Dems support him and the GOP doesn't support McCain.
    If you figure McCain wins 60% of independents (and Obama 40%) that only gives him about a 4% lead in the vote. So if Obama's base--to include Hillary-ites--show up and vote whilst the McCain base stays home and stews over the fact that Huckabee wasn't nominated, Obama wins.
    Interesting though, that most of this goes out the window because of the electoral college. It isn't a matter of winning the most votes, it's a matter of winning the right votes. Just ask Algore and a few others throughout history.

  4. #34
    > Americans (except for hard core Democrats and some black voters) might not be quite ready for a black person in the White House. On this latter point, there is a danger of this thinking becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy among voters who might like to give Obama a chance but don't want to vote for a loser. Independents might think that.
    Obviously winning Iowa shows that this is really kinda obsolete. This sounds like America 15-20 yrs ago to me but hey. Republicans were BEGGING Colin Powell to run for president over a decade ago so I really don't see where this not ready for a black president comes from. I think many are not ready for a minority president but there are far more who really just want their views represented regardless of the persons race.
    > America is a still a house divided and black and white are still wary of each other - at least those who tend to vote Republican or fear crime which is pretty much everyone.
    Obama is white - he actually shares ancestors with Kerry, Cheney and Bush himself. America is not quite as divided as you think...those who fear blacks in the way you describe don't really fear Obama in large numbers, nor do they see him in the same light as some random shady gangbanger looking guy on the street. If 50 Cent runs for president then this might be valid.

    Rasmussen reports Obama leads McCain 51% to 49% - if he is the nominee the additional support will likely push him to an even safer lead. (rasmussen does statistical analysis and polling). McCain's lead among whites over Obama is something like 12-19 percent, hardly a huge difference. I think you paint a more bleak and divided picture of America then is actually the case. There are definately racial tensions but Obama isn't really representative of the "scary black person" stereotype
    Last edited by meiguoren; 13-05-2008 at 09:12 PM.

  5. #35

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    This is an excerpt from an article that I think is spot on. You can read the full article here

    "The idolatry of Mr Obama is a shame, really. The Illinois senator is indeed, an unusually talented, inspiring and charismatic figure. His very ethnicity offers an exciting departure. But he is not a saint. He is a smart and eloquent man with a personal history that is startlingly shallow set against the scale of the office he seeks to hold. It is not only legitimate, but necessary, to scrutinise his past and infer what it might tell us about his beliefs, in the absence of the normal record of achievement expected in a presidential nominee. "


  6. #36

    what's with all this experience issue, to have experience of being a president don't you need to be a....errr president already? What matters is the person can make good decisions. Bush has made America the laughing stock of the world and he had lots of 'experience'


  7. #37

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    Quote Originally Posted by aussiegal:
    This is an excerpt from an article that I think is spot on. You can read the full article here

    "The idolatry of Mr Obama is a shame, really. The Illinois senator is indeed, an unusually talented, inspiring and charismatic figure. His very ethnicity offers an exciting departure. But he is not a saint. He is a smart and eloquent man with a personal history that is startlingly shallow set against the scale of the office he seeks to hold. It is not only legitimate, but necessary, to scrutinise his past and infer what it might tell us about his beliefs, in the absence of the normal record of achievement expected in a presidential nominee. "
    Sounds about right to me. If they can get around the "racist" charge--which is bound to come flying every time the GOP criticizes Obama--I think the GOP can exploit Obama's past. The man came out of Chicago politics, there is no way he doesn't have quite a few skeletons hanging aaround his closets.
    And I know he isn't the only politician with skeletons, but he is the only politician currently being turned into the second coming.

  8. #38

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    Quote Originally Posted by meiguoren:
    Obviously winning Iowa shows that this is really kinda obsolete. This sounds like America 15-20 yrs ago to me but hey. Republicans were BEGGING Colin Powell to run for president over a decade ago so I really don't see where this not ready for a black president comes from. I think many are not ready for a minority president but there are far more who really just want their views represented regardless of the persons race.


    Obama is white - he actually shares ancestors with Kerry, Cheney and Bush himself. America is not quite as divided as you think...those who fear blacks in the way you describe don't really fear Obama in large numbers, nor do they see him in the same light as some random shady gangbanger looking guy on the street. If 50 Cent runs for president then this might be valid.

    Rasmussen reports Obama leads McCain 51% to 49% - if he is the nominee the additional support will likely push him to an even safer lead. (rasmussen does statistical analysis and polling). McCain's lead among whites over Obama is something like 12-19 percent, hardly a huge difference. I think you paint a more bleak and divided picture of America then is actually the case. There are definately racial tensions but Obama isn't really representative of the "scary black person" stereotype
    Iowa has never elected a woman as governor or to Congress so I am not at all surprised that Obama took Iowa. Much of Iowa is farming country and old farmers think a good woman should be raising a family not tinkering in politics.

    As to Colin Powell, there is a huge difference between some people wanting someone to run for their party's nomination and the guy actually getting to be the nominee.

    If I have painted a bleak picture it is based on the people I know in the United States and how they talk and think.

    I hope I have it wrong as my sympathies are more with the Democrats than the GOP.

    If Obama is as white as your post suggests, then you are making the case for McCain to win as Obama would need the black and Latin vote in numbers that have yet to vote in any Presidential election. If the blacks - who don't normally vote - don't see Obama as their guy who will right the wrongs of America, it is a McCain win. By this I mean, Obama will need more than the traditional black voter who supports the Democratic Party to win.

    As he is not doing it now with lower educated, working whites, he will need to have the black voters who usually sit out these elections to register and vote like they never have before to win.

    Polls right now are not what I'd put stock in. It 's a long time to voting day and a lot can and will happen to shift the fortunes of each of the final two candidates.

    We haven't even addressed third party candidates like Ralph Nader who siphoned enough Gore votes to give it to Bush in 2000 and this can hurt Obama too once the election gets rolling.

  9. #39

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    Raymeander I make great decisions too. Shame I'm not an American or I could run...


  10. #40

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    McCain is being smart now that he is the presumptive candidate.
    If you see his constant appearances on John Stewart and this Saturdays SNL. He is taking the sting out of any overt barbs that are being pointed out in the media.

    This is a great tactical decision by his staff as he will not be free to do it in the REAL election. His SNL stint was absolute genius this Saturday ( Age and Pork ) and if anyone challenges him about these in debate he will have some real good sound bites up his sleeve.

    Obama on the other hand is making himself IMHO, a dick, by trying to punch ABOVE his political weight especially his comments like " lets ban everything from China ". HIS team are showing their inexperience by letting him say statements that have no foundation in reality when confronted with hard facts. The other sides you can bet are making copious notes !

    He should also realise, as should his BMF, Senator Kennedy, that if he wants to be the 21st century JFK he better have some good " mob " connections. Maybe the Cripps and the Bloods this time ??


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