Consequences of Brexit?

[Durry]

Forgive my contrarian view. And yes, I will likely be called a troll.

So, the UK will leave the European Union. So what? They will sign a lot of bilateral agreements, like the EU did with Switzerland. The UK already has negotiated some "special treaties", so nothing much will change. Except they will stop whinging and blaming the EU for everything.

Where am I wrong?

[imparanoic]

Samsung may move its London HQ within the new EU borders - GSMArena blog

Mass exodus of companies to eu

[Proplus]

Forgive my contrarian view. And yes, I will likely be called a troll.

So, the UK will leave the European Union. So what? They will sign a lot of bilateral agreements, like the EU did with Switzerland. The UK already has negotiated some "special treaties", so nothing much will change. Except they will stop whinging and blaming the EU for everything.

Where am I wrong?

I guess you voted for Leave then......well done!

[TheBrit]

Inbound investment will collapse as companies need access to the single market. The economy will shrink as a result, taxes collected will go down and public services will have to be slashed. The 7% current account deficit won't be offset by continuing capital inflow, so the currency will collapse and Brits won't be able to buy as many nice foreign products as before.

Scotland will try again to secede from the UK, and Wales is completely fucked without EU subsidies.

The path to fiscal sustainability (government spending vs. revenue) will have to be recalibrated with massive spending cuts on public services. Trigger for widespread social unrest.

In the EU itself, this will probably trigger EU oppositon in Spain, France and Italy etc and possibly lead to the break up of the whole edifice. Probably a decades worth of instability, reduced investment and ending up with the Russians invading eastern Europe again.

[civil_servant]

They will sign a lot of bilateral agreements, like the EU did with Switzerland.

No, they won't. It's been their position from the beginning. Sorry, but the Leave campaigners had you fooled.

[mrgoodkat]

The EU can't give any special treatment to the UK as this would encourage even more countries to break away. Can't give out all the benefits without all of the responsibilities.

[hullexile]

Well two immediate consequences.

Moody's has downgraded the UK outlook to "negative" noting a likely reduced ability to pay off its large debt (implications for borrowing costs thus government finances thus welfare, health and education funding).

Fuel expected to rise 2 or 3 pence per litre next week (implications for inflation thus interest rates thus mortgages thus disposable income thus government finances thus....).

But we have our sovereignty back so all is well.

From a purely personal, as well as national loyalty, perspective I hope all turns out well against all the predictions but I fear not.

[TheBrit]

TIme to slash Government expenditures now. Big cuts to welfare and the NHS needed. I also think the UK should start to cut pension payouts for retired civil servants.

[hullexile]

Just seen on my FB two different consultants have had their meetings in Europe to discuss projects with potential clients cancelled. Insignificant on their own but drip, drip, drip,

[hullexile]

TIme to slash Government expenditures now. Big cuts to welfare and the NHS needed. I also think the UK should start to cut pension payouts for retired civil servants.

The question I have is what does the BofE do on interest rates? Increase because of inflation or reduce because of recession?