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Various EU Elections - French / German / Netherlands..

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  1. #11

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    Quote Originally Posted by shri:
    So basically Merkel could be the last hope of strong and sane Europe?
    Le Pen wont win the general election but there is a good chance she qualifies for round 2 against either Fillon (right) or Macron (Center/left altho he is viewed by many as lot more center than left).

    So you are likely to have Le Pen vs Fillon and in this case Fillon will win or Le Pen vs Macron and high chance Macron wins as all the center and left will rally behind him (and even the moderate right).

    But yeah this will be 2002 all over again.

  2. #12

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    Quote Originally Posted by DirtyHairy:
    You still believe Trump won't be elected and that Brexit won't happen?
    1- Trump has been elected (although he did lose the popular vote)
    2- Brexit is ongoing, let see how that goes.

    What I said "Le Pen wont win"..is called an opinion and frankly I am very surprised of the reactions here given usually people complain I don't give enough opinion.

    Anyone can win, it's a fucking election. Le Pen has high chances to go to round 2, less so to win - really don't see what's the issue here,

  3. #13

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    I hope Le Pen wins, then goes through with Frexit. That's the only chance my GBP savings have

    hullexile likes this.

  4. #14

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mat:
    1- Trump has been elected (although he did lose the popular vote)
    2- Brexit is ongoing, let see how that goes.

    What I said "Le Pen wont win"..is called an opinion and frankly I am very surprised of the reactions here given usually people complain I don't give enough opinion.

    Anyone can win, it's a fucking election. Le Pen has high chances to go to round 2, less so to win - really don't see what's the issue here,

    In all honesty....purely meant in good humour!

  5. #15

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    Quote Originally Posted by kimwy66:
    The position is slightly more complicated for Wilders, because of the Dutch proportional representation system. He may well win the most seats, but still not get to form a government if there is a coalition of the other parties. Anyway, interesting times.
    And why should he? He leads a single issue party that, by all polls that I've seen, never exceeded 20% of the popular vote. Why should such a small minority get to call any shots when a huge majority (of all other parties) stands against them on the issues they care about? Same thing in Germany with the AfD - they'd be happy if they get anywhere near Wilder's results, but they're acting like they have majority support among the people. Say about Trump what you want - at least he managed to assemble a rather big coalition behind him. Neither Wilders nor the AfD are close to that. Not even Le Pen [despite being the least deplorable of the lot].

    Quote Originally Posted by Mat:
    So you are likely to have Le Pen vs Fillon and in this case Fillon will win or Le Pen vs Macron and high chance Macron wins as all the center and left will rally behind him (and even the moderate right).
    I quite like Macron. Don't need to like all of his positions but at least he is not taking the easy way out blaming everything that possible could be wrong on outsiders.

  6. #16

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    Quote Originally Posted by er2:
    I quite like Macron. Don't need to like all of his positions but at least he is not taking the easy way out blaming everything that possible could be wrong on outsiders.
    Same. Far from perfect but might be worth a try

  7. #17

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    Macron makes it


  8. #18

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    Original Post Deleted
    I am no expert but yes I would tend to think that him being mis en examen, increases Le Pen chances, as I would expect a few that were hesitating between the two, would pick the one with most chances to win, and in this case that would be Le Pen.

    I don't judge what people vote and we will get whomever gets the majority of vote (unlike America) but if Le Pen were ever to make it past the 2nd round and win the election, it would be a terrible thing in my view. Worse than Trump to a certain extend, since Trump end of the day is still within a "traditional" party, not her case.

    Fillon fucked up but you never know, experience has shown that French people actually do not care too much about these financial scandals and he might still make it.

    Macron is young, ambitious and trying to sell the "change" aspect of his campaign. He certainly has a lot of appeal to the upper middle class / 30-40 y old folks but unsure if it will be enough.

    I don't give Hamon much chances to pass the 1st round but you never know.

    Anyway let see how this goes.

  9. #19

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    Original Post Deleted
    and factor in the mess in 2017 in HK as well and Trump and Brexit...Guess I will retire in India then. They have fresh chapatis

  10. #20

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    Mat - Pondicherry will welcome you.

    Mat likes this.

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