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Duterte (part 2)

  1. #531

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    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile
    Don't worry they won't. A quick check on the PSA site shows the murder / homicide rate was never 9 per 100,000 . The numbers in the article are obviously wrong.

    The second bet is also safe because basic arithmetic goes against the rate increasing from 9 to 22 meaning it tripled

    It really is a very poor article.
    The journalist clearly states that official data is difficult to get with an increase in deaths to be investigated. Obviously at 22 per 100,0000 most people will not be personally affected with the deaths friends of family but the longer a high rate continues the more impact it will have on society and especially the reputation of the president as a strongman leader.

  2. #532

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    Quote Originally Posted by East_coast
    Which way is the Philippines moving on the political J curve? Yes some economic and social freedoms have been gained which is good but it is political freedoms that determine the long term good of a country.



    If there is political reform, a freer press, fairer elections, less intimidation etc it is probably moving up the right hand side.

    Tighter authoritarianism does foster growth if society is in a muddle but it is limited compared to developing a functioning pluralistic society that offers greater growth rates and more freedoms over time.

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/10...cal-activists/
    That would be useful if you actually knew anything about the Philippines and about Duterte's policies.

    Start with Duterte's stance on federalism, parliamentary system, developing stronger party systems. Look at his desire, coming to fruition, of moving development and power away from Manila to the provinces.

    Look at his introduction of a task force on media security (compare the number of media people killed under Aquino and Duterte). Those that have been killed under Duterte include those that supported him.

    Look at Duterte's reaction to protests. How many protesters killed under Aquino? Certainly several shot and killed. Under Duterte none. He has even called a national holiday so more could protest.

    How many media outlets closed down? Zero. How many journalists jailed? Zero. Freedom of information enabled, refused by previous presidents.

    Expand your knowledge base.

    Here is a starter for you. Press freedom index 2016 ranked 138th, 2019 ranked 134th. The score has improved as well as the ranking. So on this measure which way has the Philippines moved under Duterte compared to the Liberal Party?
    Last edited by hullexile; 17-06-2019 at 02:58 AM.

  3. #533

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    Quote Originally Posted by East_coast
    The journalist clearly states that official data is difficult to get with an increase in deaths to be investigated. Obviously at 22 per 100,0000 most people will not be personally affected with the deaths friends of family but the longer a high rate continues the more impact it will have on society and especially the reputation of the president as a strongman leader.
    No one else comes up with that figure so how does he get to it? You can't just make numbers up. The figures are false. Even the figure of 9 is false and for that you just go to the PSA database publicly available. 9 to 22 is not tripling is it?

  4. #534

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    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile
    That would be useful if you actually knew anything about the Philippines and about Duterte's policies.

    Start with Duterte's stance on federalism, parliamentary system, developing stronger party systems. Look at his desire, coming to fruition, of moving development and power away from Manila to the provinces.

    Look at his introduction of a task force on media security (compare the number of media people killed under Aquino and Duterte). Those that have been killed under Duterte include those that supported him.

    Look at Duterte's reaction to protests. How many protesters killed under Aquino? Certainly several shot and killed. Under Duterte none. He has even called a national holiday so more could protest.

    How many media outlets closed down? Zero. How many journalists jailed? Zero. Freedom of information enabled, refused by previous presidents.

    Expand your knowledge base.

    Here is a starter for you. Press freedom index 2016 ranked 138th, 2019 ranked 134th. The score has improved as well as the ranking. So on this measure which way has the Philippines moved under Duterte compared to the Liberal Party?
    What political reform has been pushed through? Saying you want something that is popular and actually making it policy is very different. No doubt many reasons why not

    Press Freedom is is very poor and 12 media workers killed under his watch plus much higher rate of the media being targeted through various means.

    https://news.abs-cbn.com/focus/05/03...e-media-groups

    But again I am sure there will be a reason why, as there always does. Not being able to have any criticism of a political leader is odd.

  5. #535

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    Quote Originally Posted by East_coast
    What political reform has been pushed through? Saying you want something that is popular and actually making it policy is very different. No doubt many reasons why not

    Press Freedom is is very poor and 12 media workers killed under his watch plus much higher rate of the media being targeted through various means.

    https://news.abs-cbn.com/focus/05/03...e-media-groups

    But again I am sure there will be a reason why, as there always does. Not being able to have any criticism of a political leader is odd.
    You are avoiding answering any questions. Has press freedom according to the index got better or worse under Duterte? You raised the issue of movement along the J curve. If you are looking at movement then you need to look at change. Give me examples with evidence of how things have deteriorated.

    Federalism is unpopular as shown in surveys. Again your lack of knowledge. (Moves towards China are unpopular, attacking the Catholic church is unpopular, for a populist he does many unpopular things). It has passed the House but blocked by Senate. That happens in a democracy. Duterte can't "force things through".

    Stop deflecting and answer the questions

    Was the murder rate of 9 correct? Based on?
    Is the murder rate of 22 correct? Based on?
    Is an increase of 9 to 22 tripling?

  6. #536

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    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile
    You are avoiding answering any questions. Has press freedom according to the index got better or worse under Duterte? You raised the issue of movement along the J curve. If you are looking at movement then you need to look at change. Give me examples with evidence of how things have deteriorated.

    Federalism is unpopular as shown in surveys. Again your lack of knowledge. (Moves towards China are unpopular, attacking the Catholic church is unpopular, for a populist he does many unpopular things). It has passed the House but blocked by Senate. That happens in a democracy. Duterte can't "force things through".

    Stop deflecting and answer the questions

    Was the murder rate of 9 correct? Based on?
    Is the murder rate of 22 correct? Based on?
    Is an increase of 9 to 22 tripling?
    The article based numbers on murder rates. Data on the www suggests 9 / 100K.

    https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/phi.../homicide-rate

    I agree the math is not shown and one data point is missing but from the data given for the last 3 years

    State sponsored drug murders 5300
    Unsolved homicides 29000

    which would give 11 / 100K

    But what is not stated is the number of solved homicides.

    'Approaching 3x' is a stretch when it is suggested to be 2.4x

    Do I think his editor fact checked the numbers - probably but with a large error factor due to uncertainties in reporting.

    Do I think murder is being used as a tool by the state. Almost certainly. The best way to show this was not the case would be to allow a UNHRC investigation.

  7. #537

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    Quote Originally Posted by East_coast
    The article based numbers on murder rates. Data on the www suggests 9 / 100K.

    https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/phi.../homicide-rate

    I agree the math is not shown and one data point is missing but from the data given for the last 3 years

    State sponsored drug murders 5300
    Unsolved homicides 29000

    which would give 11 / 100K

    But what is not stated is the number of solved homicides.

    'Approaching 3x' is a stretch when it is suggested to be 2.4x

    Do I think his editor fact checked the numbers - probably but with a large error factor due to uncertainties in reporting.

    Do I think murder is being used as a tool by the state. Almost certainly. The best way to show this was not the case would be to allow a UNHRC investigation.
    The problem with those figures is that the first figures is only murder (even though the writer refers to homicide), the second figure is murder plus homicide. Murder is around 9.5 on average, homicide around 3. Total 12.5. It is now around 12. Add on the 5,000 deaths in police operations and you get to around 13 I think. (The deaths in police operations have not been added to the figures pre Duterte.).

    Of course you are entitled to your opinion but you need real evidence. Definitely it murder was a tool before under the Liberal Party which is why they had to create Rappler and impeach the Chief Justice to stop Aquino being impeached. Those who testify against the Liberal Party still have a habit of ending up dead - 23 police have just been charged with murder for one such recent killing (that did not make the news really). I saw none of the rights groups up in arms about that killing for some reason.

  8. #538

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    Rodrigo Duterte under pressure over China boat attack - https://www.ft.com/content/680621ba-...reType=nongift via @FT


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  10. #540

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBrit
    Rodrigo Duterte under pressure over China boat attack - https://www.ft.com/content/680621ba-...reType=nongift via @FT
    Pmsl. Yes really under pressure

    https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/07/08/...-satisfied-sws

    As they say here Duterte is blessed with stupid opposition.

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