I think the EU courts have given them a clear path to an exit from Brexit - as an outsider with some vested interests in the UK (son will be headed there in a couple of years), I do hope that Brexit gets reversed.Does this make a No Brexit more likely as the hardline Brexiteers get behind a Brexit at all costs option?
Chances of that happening? No clue. I am very frankly ignorant about the game and the players.
I am not sure what the timeline would be for a tweaked version. The EU has no interest or urgency to renegotiate.
Seems like the current deal is off the table?
I think we will have some clearing of the mess that yesterday created when the full legal advice is released ( likely tomorrow). If it says what the anti-deal faction are claiming, that a customs union can be perpetual, then a no vote on the deal is pretty much sealed.
But what happens after that? The Greive amendment to give parliament more say in the path after a no vote is only a motion - ie not binding on the government. After a no vote, the factions will realign, with Brexiteers falling in with the government again and May's promised 'my deal or no deal'. The last thing they want is another referendum. Question remains over the DUP, with May possibly trying to get them back in her camp:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1070035858378670080
Right now, the only thing that can be said for sure is that it is a royal shit-show, and I doubt anyone will be able to predict the outcome.
An interesting aside to all the parliamentary shenanigans, this also happened yesterday:
https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/sta...14967137603589
So the man that set up a party that deliberately stirred up anti-migrant rhetoric with the intention of getting out of the EU, is now leaving that party because he doesn't like the people it is associated with.
The whole thing right from the beginning is a total screw up. Saw also yesterday that Farage has quit UKIP because they are too right wing now. So the party that caused the tories to sacrifice the economic health of the country to keep themselves in power is now disintegrating.
Edit: our posts overlapped!
Isnt that due soon and the news that I read indicated that the judgement would follow the lines of the opinon? Or did I misread that?And the court ruling was an opinion, it wasn't a judgement. It still needs to be tested.
As far as I am aware the predictions of doom were for when we left the EU and that has not happened yet.Original Post Deleted
- speaking of "markets"... but we should have a chat about what we define as markets - algorithms, humans and what/where their horizons are.Original Post Deleted
https://smarkets.com/event/812006/po...-leave-eu-date
Last edited by shri; 05-12-2018 at 05:58 PM.