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Brexit: EU court says it can be cancelled

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  1. #11

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    Quote Originally Posted by kimwy66:
    So, quite the day yesterday:

    1. EU Court of Justice says Brexit can be cancelled.

    2. Historic vote in Parliament sees the Government found in contempt of the Parliament for not publishing the legal advice on the Deal

    3. Dominic Grieve (former Attorney General) gets an amendment passed saying that if the deal is voted down next week, then parliament decides the next course.

    Number 3 is an interesting one. Does this make a No Brexit more likely as the hardline Brexiteers get behind a Brexit at all costs option?
    Number 3 (and number 1) make a no vote almost definite now IMHO.

  2. #12

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    Does this make a No Brexit more likely as the hardline Brexiteers get behind a Brexit at all costs option?
    I think the EU courts have given them a clear path to an exit from Brexit - as an outsider with some vested interests in the UK (son will be headed there in a couple of years), I do hope that Brexit gets reversed.

    Chances of that happening? No clue. I am very frankly ignorant about the game and the players.

  3. #13

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    I am not sure what the timeline would be for a tweaked version. The EU has no interest or urgency to renegotiate.

    Seems like the current deal is off the table?


  4. #14

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    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    Number 3 (and number 1) make a no vote almost definite now IMHO.
    I think we will have some clearing of the mess that yesterday created when the full legal advice is released ( likely tomorrow). If it says what the anti-deal faction are claiming, that a customs union can be perpetual, then a no vote on the deal is pretty much sealed.

    But what happens after that? The Greive amendment to give parliament more say in the path after a no vote is only a motion - ie not binding on the government. After a no vote, the factions will realign, with Brexiteers falling in with the government again and May's promised 'my deal or no deal'. The last thing they want is another referendum. Question remains over the DUP, with May possibly trying to get them back in her camp:

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1070035858378670080

    Right now, the only thing that can be said for sure is that it is a royal shit-show, and I doubt anyone will be able to predict the outcome.
    shri likes this.

  5. #15

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    An interesting aside to all the parliamentary shenanigans, this also happened yesterday:

    https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/sta...14967137603589

    So the man that set up a party that deliberately stirred up anti-migrant rhetoric with the intention of getting out of the EU, is now leaving that party because he doesn't like the people it is associated with.

    shri likes this.

  6. #16

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    Quote Originally Posted by kimwy66:
    I think we will have some clearing of the mess that yesterday created when the full legal advice is released ( likely tomorrow). If it says what the anti-deal faction are claiming, that a customs union can be perpetual, then a no vote on the deal is pretty much sealed.

    But what happens after that? The Greive amendment to give parliament more say in the path after a no vote is only a motion - ie not binding on the government. After a no vote, the factions will realign, with Brexiteers falling in with the government again and May's promised 'my deal or no deal'. The last thing they want is another referendum. Question remains over the DUP, with May possibly trying to get them back in her camp:

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1070035858378670080

    Right now, the only thing that can be said for sure is that it is a royal shit-show, and I doubt anyone will be able to predict the outcome.
    The whole thing right from the beginning is a total screw up. Saw also yesterday that Farage has quit UKIP because they are too right wing now. So the party that caused the tories to sacrifice the economic health of the country to keep themselves in power is now disintegrating.

    Edit: our posts overlapped!
    kimwy66 likes this.

  7. #17

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    And the court ruling was an opinion, it wasn't a judgement. It still needs to be tested.
    Isnt that due soon and the news that I read indicated that the judgement would follow the lines of the opinon? Or did I misread that?

  8. #18

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    Original Post Deleted
    As far as I am aware the predictions of doom were for when we left the EU and that has not happened yet.

  9. #19

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    - speaking of "markets"... but we should have a chat about what we define as markets - algorithms, humans and what/where their horizons are.

    Name:  Screenshot 2018-12-05 at 5.49.47 PM.png
Views: 140
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    https://smarkets.com/event/812006/po...-leave-eu-date
    Last edited by shri; 05-12-2018 at 05:58 PM.

  10. #20

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    Original Post Deleted
    From JPM.

    1) No deal - 10%
    2) Some deal and orderly - 50%
    3) No Brexit - 40%

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