View Poll Results: Brext Bets?

Voters
38. You may not vote on this poll
  • As Planned on March 29th

    2 5.26%
  • No Deal on March 29th

    12 31.58%
  • Delayed to 2021

    9 23.68%
  • Other...

    15 39.47%
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Brexit Bets - Delay, Hard Exit or Last Minute Deal?

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  1. #721

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    Abstaining from a regreterendum would be the best way to delegitimize it

    There was an 8 point lead 3 years ago

    What ground have the EU given?

    Last edited by East_coast; 08-04-2019 at 07:01 PM.

  2. #722

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    Revoke article 50, quit austerity, witness an economic boom, enjoy the summer, go on with life, and forget about Brexit. The only sensible solution.

    HK_Katherine likes this.

  3. #723

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    Quote Originally Posted by East_coast:
    Abstaining from a regreterendum would be the best way to delegitimize it

    There was an 8 point lead 3 years ago

    What ground have the EU given?
    I've argued above that abstaining wouldn't delegitimise it, it would just look like people not actually caring that much. The result of abstention would be to remain, with some woolly democratic deficit as the price. If the brexiters really believe that their approach is best for the UK, winning a second referendum would stop all these arguments.

    It's only a "regreterendum" if you look at it from the remain point of view - from the leave point of view it's potentially the final nail in the coffin of the UK's EU membership and as such could be very positive. Calling it that shows weakness from brexiters. Note that I don't rule out best of three (or more) if second referendum went with remain. It's potentially a way to apply pressure to make sure if the UK stays in the EU it maintains the threat of leaving.

    8 point lead in what? I've quoted three specific poll of poll results above, all shifting to remain, some substantially. Polling is a black art but if the trends push anywhere it's towards caution and remain.

    The EU have engaged in a negotiation process - it's really not up them to give ground.

    UK opt-outs from EU (not Brexit related):

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opt-ou...#Summary_table

    Some EU concessions listed here:

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-concessions-factbox/factbox-where-the-eu-has-made-concessions-in-brexit-talks-idUSKCN1NL1WA


    But really, they are also constrained by protecting their trade interests and by keeping the (island of) Ireland border free. Whatever they do will make some people unhappy. What concessions would you suggest?

    UK also risks losing its rebate.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_rebate

    Fundamentally I disagree that with you that the EU has any duty to make it easy for the UK to leave. If California wanted to break away from the US, it wouldn't have an easy time. If Hong Kong wanted to leave China... well, less said about that the better perhaps.
    Last edited by dengxi; 08-04-2019 at 08:03 PM.

  4. #724

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    Quote Originally Posted by dengxi:
    I've argued above that abstaining wouldn't delegitimise it, it would just look like people not actually caring that much. The result of abstention would be to remain, with some woolly democratic deficit as the price. If the brexiters really believe that their approach is best for the UK, winning a second referendum would stop all these arguments.
    I don't think a Leave vote would win at the moment hence the likelyhood for Leave potentially not campaigning. I would guess after say 4 years cooling off the vote would be less tainted by the toxicity of the current negotiations. A vote now would result in years of counter campaiging for a 3rd referendum and the UK being stuck in a quagmire for even longer. Not good for the EU and not good for the UK.

    Other countries have emerged from secessionist movements. Remaining should be because being together is better than being apart not the fear of the leaving process. Most fail as the prospect of leaving something known to move into the unknown is just to unpalatable for the majority.

    I don't think it should be easy but it shouldn't be too difficult either.

  5. #725

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    Quote Originally Posted by dengxi:
    I've argued above that abstaining wouldn't delegitimise it, it would just look like people not actually caring that much. The result of abstention would be to remain, with some woolly democratic deficit as the price. If the brexiters really believe that their approach is best for the UK, winning a second referendum would stop all these arguments.

    It's only a "regreterendum" if you look at it from the remain point of view - from the leave point of view it's potentially the final nail in the coffin of the UK's EU membership and as such could be very positive. Calling it that shows weakness from brexiters. Note that I don't rule out best of three (or more) if second referendum went with remain. It's potentially a way to apply pressure to make sure if the UK stays in the EU it maintains the threat of leaving.

    8 point lead in what? I've quoted three specific poll of poll results above, all shifting to remain, some substantially. Polling is a black art but if the trends push anywhere it's towards caution and remain.

    The EU have engaged in a negotiation process - it's really not up them to give ground.

    UK opt-outs from EU (not Brexit related):

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opt-ou...#Summary_table

    Some EU concessions listed here:

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-concessions-factbox/factbox-where-the-eu-has-made-concessions-in-brexit-talks-idUSKCN1NL1WA


    But really, they are also constrained by protecting their trade interests and by keeping the (island of) Ireland border free. Whatever they do will make some people unhappy. What concessions would you suggest?

    UK also risks losing its rebate.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_rebate

    Fundamentally I disagree that with you that the EU has any duty to make it easy for the UK to leave. If California wanted to break away from the US, it wouldn't have an easy time. If Hong Kong wanted to leave China... well, less said about that the better perhaps.
    As far as EU is concerned, the seceder must pay. There is zero sympathy for the Brits.

  6. #726

  7. #727

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    Quote Originally Posted by mlew:
    As far as EU is concerned, the seceder must pay. There is zero sympathy for the Brits.
    As can be seen by the generous 'concessions' in the link above in summary below

    Backstop that requires full financial contribution and no ability to unilateral withdraw
    Fisheries of the independent UK will not be managed by the EU
    Free Movement of EU citizens into the UK will be stopped
    The City will be treated like any other non-EU financial centre
    Arbitration will be under a mutually agreed process

  8. #728

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    Looks like Rees-Mogg and Mark Francois have scuppered the option for a long extension. Macron will have his way, as will May.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/11...446336513?s=20


  9. #729

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    Quote Originally Posted by East_coast:
    As can be seen by the generous 'concessions' in the link above in summary below

    Backstop that requires full financial contribution and no ability to unilateral withdraw
    Fisheries of the independent UK will not be managed by the EU
    Free Movement of EU citizens into the UK will be stopped
    The City will be treated like any other non-EU financial centre
    Arbitration will be under a mutually agreed process
    Concessions are usually out of self interest not sympathy.

  10. #730

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    Quote Originally Posted by mlew:
    Concessions are usually out of self interest not sympathy.
    And they have to be something of yours to give. Offering not to manage the UK fisheries and not allowing free movement etc were not the EU's to give post Brexit. The list of 'concessions' from the EU really does show where the power lies in the negotiations.