View Poll Results: Brext Bets?

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38. You may not vote on this poll
  • As Planned on March 29th

    2 5.26%
  • No Deal on March 29th

    12 31.58%
  • Delayed to 2021

    9 23.68%
  • Other...

    15 39.47%
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Brexit Bets - Delay, Hard Exit or Last Minute Deal?

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  1. #721

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mefisto
    Forgetting about other factors and concentrating on the campaigning by the two main parties only, surely you understand how the dynamics of UK's party politics watered down the pro-EU campaign.

    Cameron called the referendum specifically to deal with (or placate) the Tory right wing brexiteers. Campaining strongly for the Remain campaign would have damaged his party's "unity".

    Meanwhile, being in the opposition and therefore having to disagree with Tory policies as a principle, campaining for the Remain choice was toxic to Corbyn, despite Labour being predominantly pro-EU.

    With even the BBC aiming to be unbiased by giving equal coverage to the Leave campaign's false claims and the tabloids doing what they've always done, the pro-EU camp wasn't equipped to counter all the anti-EU claims by the UKIP types.

    Also note that while the brexiteers attacked the European Union of 28 member states with absolute impunity, the EU wasn't really able to defend itself because that would have constituted interference in the UK's "domestic politics".
    Under the same criteria of party politics the 1975 referendum question about staying won easily.

    Yes 17,378,581 67.23%
    No 8,470,073 32.77%

    If you watch some pre-vote videos Cameron did look very much for a passionate Remain vote. If you then look at the turgid speeches by Corbyn on the why the EU was a good place to remain (one I recall had only cleaner beaches as a positive) was Far from convincing. I would also argue the Tory party was split much like the voters they represent.

  2. #722

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    Quote Originally Posted by East_coast
    On what?
    Brexit preparations: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/m...essful-eu-exit


    Quote Originally Posted by East_coast
    It is about the same as it was 10 years ago.
    Not sure 10 years ago is the relevant comparison when you're talking about what's changed since the referendum?


    Quote Originally Posted by East_coast
    In 1975 the UK voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU. Many of the idealistic young voters who voted to remain then voter leave this time. As people get older they become more Eurosceptic. Given the age profile of the UK this argument seems severely flawed.
    Interesting points - I was looking at analyses such as this one:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices...-a8541576.html

    But even if the change in people entering and leaving the voting population is pro-remain, you are right that it could be that the effect of people's views changing over time outweighs this. (A referendum would be one way to review this.)

    Quote Originally Posted by East_coast
    I would argue at least 3 years possibly longer should be allowed to remove the calamity of the current unfinished negotiations affecting the result. My worst fear would be the pro-Brexit camp abstaining and remain winning with a lower total number of votes. More confusion and deeper division.
    Why would they abstain? There's been a massive investment into researching brexit options. It's a chance to give a renewed mandate to continue that investment and maybe actually leave. If people don't care that much any more (less people vote), then why make a big change?

    If the government had turned around and done nothing after the referendum result then I'd agree that democracy would have been damaged. But from Cameron quitting his job to the efforts made on both sides (EU and UK) in negotiation, to the potential impacts on investment, macroeconomic effects, it seems hard to say that there has been no impact from peoples' no votes.

    Even if remain wins with lower votes and the UK remains, then nothing precludes a "best of three" if the anti-EU sentiment persists in the UK, after say five years.

    Quote Originally Posted by East_coast
    The negotiation is not difficult because the EU is such a lovely club it is difficult because Mrs May is wanting and the EU is belligerent
    I'm not very convinced by the EU are belligerent - they've budged a lot in the past, have been fair and consistent, but not pushovers. When you see footage of Farage speaking in Brussels, or the Rees-Mogg quotes about causing as much trouble as possible, I think they've been pretty patient. I don't see that May has done a particularly bad job either - it's just that the brexit camp are not united, and the EU structures provide a carefully balanced economic and political framework that can't be changed easily. The border issue is just one example.

    The fact that the exit process was written by a Brit makes it hard to be sympathetic to complaints about the EU being hard to leave.

    Quote Originally Posted by East_coast
    The remain camp lost as it didn't get the issue across successfully. The polls are about the same now as 3 years ago.
    Agreed that the remain camp lost and why. I checked the polls below - all moving further towards remain, in one case by a lot. If anything this supports what I said about the case getting stronger for remain. Again, a referendum would show that the country still believes in leave if they do, and no doubt would give the political push towards more Euro-scepticism that is missing now.

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/question...ld-you-vote-2/ (2016: 42%/48% leave/remain, 2019: 39%/46%) - remain lead increases from 6% to 7%
    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/question...ould-you-vote/ (2016: 48%/30% leave/remain, 2019: 38%/45% leave/remain) - big swing to remain from leave
    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/question...-leave-the-eu/ (2016: 46%/42% right/wrong to vote to leave, 2019: 42%/47% right/wrong) - swing from leave vote is right to leave vote is wrong

    Quote Originally Posted by East_coast
    Something needs to change. The only constitutional document in the UK (that I am aware of) that sets the framework for a specific regional plebiscite states a minimum of 7 years between votes on the same issue. That feels to short for me and should be at least 3 governments as well.
    Not clear why on that? If government votes for it - why not do it? If people don't believe referenda are worthwhile or are ignored they just won't vote and politicians will have a weaker mandate.

  3. #723

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    Abstaining from a regreterendum would be the best way to delegitimize it

    There was an 8 point lead 3 years ago

    What ground have the EU given?

    Last edited by East_coast; 08-04-2019 at 07:01 PM.

  4. #724

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    Revoke article 50, quit austerity, witness an economic boom, enjoy the summer, go on with life, and forget about Brexit. The only sensible solution.

    HK_Katherine likes this.

  5. #725

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    Quote Originally Posted by East_coast
    Abstaining from a regreterendum would be the best way to delegitimize it

    There was an 8 point lead 3 years ago

    What ground have the EU given?
    I've argued above that abstaining wouldn't delegitimise it, it would just look like people not actually caring that much. The result of abstention would be to remain, with some woolly democratic deficit as the price. If the brexiters really believe that their approach is best for the UK, winning a second referendum would stop all these arguments.

    It's only a "regreterendum" if you look at it from the remain point of view - from the leave point of view it's potentially the final nail in the coffin of the UK's EU membership and as such could be very positive. Calling it that shows weakness from brexiters. Note that I don't rule out best of three (or more) if second referendum went with remain. It's potentially a way to apply pressure to make sure if the UK stays in the EU it maintains the threat of leaving.

    8 point lead in what? I've quoted three specific poll of poll results above, all shifting to remain, some substantially. Polling is a black art but if the trends push anywhere it's towards caution and remain.

    The EU have engaged in a negotiation process - it's really not up them to give ground.

    UK opt-outs from EU (not Brexit related):

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opt-ou...#Summary_table

    Some EU concessions listed here:

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-concessions-factbox/factbox-where-the-eu-has-made-concessions-in-brexit-talks-idUSKCN1NL1WA


    But really, they are also constrained by protecting their trade interests and by keeping the (island of) Ireland border free. Whatever they do will make some people unhappy. What concessions would you suggest?

    UK also risks losing its rebate.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_rebate

    Fundamentally I disagree that with you that the EU has any duty to make it easy for the UK to leave. If California wanted to break away from the US, it wouldn't have an easy time. If Hong Kong wanted to leave China... well, less said about that the better perhaps.
    Last edited by dengxi; 08-04-2019 at 08:03 PM.

  6. #726

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    Quote Originally Posted by dengxi
    I've argued above that abstaining wouldn't delegitimise it, it would just look like people not actually caring that much. The result of abstention would be to remain, with some woolly democratic deficit as the price. If the brexiters really believe that their approach is best for the UK, winning a second referendum would stop all these arguments.
    I don't think a Leave vote would win at the moment hence the likelyhood for Leave potentially not campaigning. I would guess after say 4 years cooling off the vote would be less tainted by the toxicity of the current negotiations. A vote now would result in years of counter campaiging for a 3rd referendum and the UK being stuck in a quagmire for even longer. Not good for the EU and not good for the UK.

    Other countries have emerged from secessionist movements. Remaining should be because being together is better than being apart not the fear of the leaving process. Most fail as the prospect of leaving something known to move into the unknown is just to unpalatable for the majority.

    I don't think it should be easy but it shouldn't be too difficult either.

  7. #727

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    Quote Originally Posted by dengxi
    I've argued above that abstaining wouldn't delegitimise it, it would just look like people not actually caring that much. The result of abstention would be to remain, with some woolly democratic deficit as the price. If the brexiters really believe that their approach is best for the UK, winning a second referendum would stop all these arguments.

    It's only a "regreterendum" if you look at it from the remain point of view - from the leave point of view it's potentially the final nail in the coffin of the UK's EU membership and as such could be very positive. Calling it that shows weakness from brexiters. Note that I don't rule out best of three (or more) if second referendum went with remain. It's potentially a way to apply pressure to make sure if the UK stays in the EU it maintains the threat of leaving.

    8 point lead in what? I've quoted three specific poll of poll results above, all shifting to remain, some substantially. Polling is a black art but if the trends push anywhere it's towards caution and remain.

    The EU have engaged in a negotiation process - it's really not up them to give ground.

    UK opt-outs from EU (not Brexit related):

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opt-ou...#Summary_table

    Some EU concessions listed here:

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-concessions-factbox/factbox-where-the-eu-has-made-concessions-in-brexit-talks-idUSKCN1NL1WA


    But really, they are also constrained by protecting their trade interests and by keeping the (island of) Ireland border free. Whatever they do will make some people unhappy. What concessions would you suggest?

    UK also risks losing its rebate.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_rebate

    Fundamentally I disagree that with you that the EU has any duty to make it easy for the UK to leave. If California wanted to break away from the US, it wouldn't have an easy time. If Hong Kong wanted to leave China... well, less said about that the better perhaps.
    As far as EU is concerned, the seceder must pay. There is zero sympathy for the Brits.

  8. #728

  9. #729

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    Quote Originally Posted by mlew
    As far as EU is concerned, the seceder must pay. There is zero sympathy for the Brits.
    As can be seen by the generous 'concessions' in the link above in summary below

    Backstop that requires full financial contribution and no ability to unilateral withdraw
    Fisheries of the independent UK will not be managed by the EU
    Free Movement of EU citizens into the UK will be stopped
    The City will be treated like any other non-EU financial centre
    Arbitration will be under a mutually agreed process

  10. #730

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    Looks like Rees-Mogg and Mark Francois have scuppered the option for a long extension. Macron will have his way, as will May.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/11...446336513?s=20