View Poll Results: Brext Bets?

Voters
38. You may not vote on this poll
  • As Planned on March 29th

    2 5.26%
  • No Deal on March 29th

    12 31.58%
  • Delayed to 2021

    9 23.68%
  • Other...

    15 39.47%
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Brexit Bets - Delay, Hard Exit or Last Minute Deal?

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  1. #731

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    Quote Originally Posted by East_coast
    As can be seen by the generous 'concessions' in the link above in summary below

    Backstop that requires full financial contribution and no ability to unilateral withdraw
    Fisheries of the independent UK will not be managed by the EU
    Free Movement of EU citizens into the UK will be stopped
    The City will be treated like any other non-EU financial centre
    Arbitration will be under a mutually agreed process
    Concessions are usually out of self interest not sympathy.

  2. #732

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    Quote Originally Posted by mlew
    Concessions are usually out of self interest not sympathy.
    And they have to be something of yours to give. Offering not to manage the UK fisheries and not allowing free movement etc were not the EU's to give post Brexit. The list of 'concessions' from the EU really does show where the power lies in the negotiations.

  3. #733

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    Quote Originally Posted by East_coast
    And they have to be something of yours to give. Offering not to manage the UK fisheries and not allowing free movement etc were not the EU's to give post Brexit. The list of 'concessions' from the EU really does show where the power lies in the negotiations.
    And did you expect the power to rest with the UK? Why would anyone expect that apart from Little Englanders who thought the EU needed the UK more than the other way around.

  4. #734

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    I fear we're being set up for a MV4 and MP's are going to vote for May's shitty deal rather than risk a long extension or no-Brexit. The spineless cowards at the ERG will flip and be supported by some renegade Labour MP's. Still seems a long shot but I wouldn't rule it out completely.

    To be honest, her deal is probably better than a customs-union deal as I believe the UK will be able to negotiate a substantial trade deal (without a full customs union) with the EU after the WA is signed. However, all the above options are are demonstrably worse than staying in the EU !


  5. #735

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    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile
    And did you expect the power to rest with the UK? Why would anyone expect that apart from Little Englanders who thought the EU needed the UK more than the other way around.
    I think the deal offered to and accepted by Mrs May is a terrible deal. I have also stated many times I do not think making the process of leaving so unpalatable should be the reason people stay in a 'club'. People should stay because the club offers more benefits as being a member.

    Offering the UK a torturous route to exit and probably as similar but longer route to get 'sensible' free trade deal will only stoke resentment of the EU presidium from within the EU and outside the EU. Being able to leave a club (technically and practically) makes the club stronger as it forces decisions and direction that makes the club a better place so members are less inclined to leave.

  6. #736

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBrit
    I fear we're being set up for a MV4 and MP's are going to vote for May's shitty deal rather than risk a long extension or no-Brexit. The spineless cowards at the ERG will flip and be supported by some renegade Labour MP's. Still seems a long shot but I wouldn't rule it out completely.
    MV1 (meaningful vote)
    MV2 (meaningful vote again) - Changed the font
    NSMV (Not so meaningful vote) - Printed on two pages instead of one
    NRMV (Not really meaningful vote) - ???

    I would hope the speaker doesn't allow such tactics by the executive.

    Quote Originally Posted by TheBrit
    To be honest, her deal is probably better than a customs-union deal as I believe the UK will be able to negotiate a substantial trade deal (without a full customs union) with the EU after the WA is signed. However, all the above options are are demonstrably worse than staying in the EU !
    I suspect the UK will be held in limbo of paying full fees and no seat at the table for many years while the 'details' of a free trade agreement coupled with appropriate fees for regulatory alignment and access are thrashed out.
    shri likes this.

  7. #737

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    I suspect the UK will be held in limbo of paying full fees and no seat at the table for many years while the 'details' of a free trade agreement coupled with appropriate fees for regulatory alignment and access are thrashed out.
    I too suspect this is what will happen, specially with the EU focused on sorting out issues within and with the US.

  8. #738

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    Quote Originally Posted by East_coast
    I think the deal offered to and accepted by Mrs May is a terrible deal. I have also stated many times I do not think making the process of leaving so unpalatable should be the reason people stay in a 'club'. People should stay because the club offers more benefits as being a member.

    Offering the UK a torturous route to exit and probably as similar but longer route to get 'sensible' free trade deal will only stoke resentment of the EU presidium from within the EU and outside the EU. Being able to leave a club (technically and practically) makes the club stronger as it forces decisions and direction that makes the club a better place so members are less inclined to leave.
    That completely avoids my question

  9. #739

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    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile
    That completely avoids my question
    As clearly demonstrated by the negotiations so far the power does not rest with the UK. The UK will have even less power after Mrs May's deal is signed.

    Such an approach is not good for the EU in the long term

  10. #740

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    Quote Originally Posted by East_coast
    As clearly demonstrated by the negotiations so far the power does not rest with the UK. The UK will have even less power after Mrs May's deal is signed.

    Such an approach is not good for the EU in the long term
    EU support is at a 35-year high. The way the EU has been conducting negotiations has high support from nation states and their constituents. People can't criticize the EU negotiators if the UK can't even be firm on what they want. Can you tell us what they want? I can't even after reading hundreds of posts and articles on Brexit. Even TheBrit keeps changing his mind all the time. One time he told us he supports May's plan if it prevents No Deal. Then he tells us No Deal is better than May's deal. Once he told us that revoking article 50 would be terrible for democracy. Now he talks of elections.

    And then there's you who thinks every political problem has a technical solution and hence you see the EU as a technical construct. That view is not only dangerous, but factually incorrect. It's the political construct of the EU that brought about peace in Ireland and not the free flow of goods. Hence one cannot just replace a political solution with a technical one.

    UK politics are in shambles, parliament has chosen to extend negotiation, the EU may return the favour, but Brexiteers are now vowing to use passive aggressive tactics to disrupt EU decision making. Yet you come on here telling us the EU is inflexible.