As Planned on March 29th
No Deal on March 29th
Delayed to 2021
Other...
There is no doubt the EU has been a power for good for its members, harmonising standards removing internal trade barriers as well as forcing the democratic development of many nations who aspire to join the project. The EU report you cite also noted that dissatisfaction was growing especially in older member countries.
I would suggest we wait and see what happens in the ballot box in the coming elections to see what the voting public think.
Of course it is possible to criticise the EU's position and May's inability to clearly state her vision of a post Brexit world. I suspect she is unwilling to offer a clear vision as she knows the UK is the much weaker party in the negotiation so has stuck to her broad-brush red lines akin to the Switzerland model.
The deal offered and accepted by May is terrible for the UK or for any country for that matter. Would you expect say China, USA or even New Zealand's parliament to ratify such a deal - very unlikely
It is clearly a political issue. Please point out where I have stated it is a technical issue. I have repeatedly pointed out that Mrs May is wanting and the EU are intransigent - A minor tweak to the backstop and this would of been ratified in December on the first sitting. There are clearly solutions to many of the issues raised by the process but these need political will.
EU law has been used as a reference in the GFA. By the EU's own admission the approach it has chosen to take (stop bi-lateral discussion between Ireland and the UK on practical solutions) and impose the EU's desire for an economic border within a non-member sovereign state risks the return to violence.
The UK has a representative democracy. The law makers are being asked to ratify something I think many would find hard for any legislative body to readily accept. The executive appear to have no choice as the EU will not give any minor concessions. It is very messy and the rules and conventions arcane but I would argue parliament is representing the country on this with a wide array of views but overall they don't want to accept the terrible deal offered by the EU. As sufficient parliamentarians for the motion to pass have pointed out many times minor changes to the insistence of the EU to have a bi-lateral escape clause for an indefinite limbo-zone of paying full fees with no representation - the 'you pay without complaint or comment until we decide you don't have to' clause. Would you want your home country to accept such a deal?
Last edited by East_coast; 11-04-2019 at 07:36 AM.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...rusted-trader/
Can the potential of smuggling on an industrial scale be resolved? (there is already smuggling to arbitrage VAT differences)
But he can't have that with a "no deal" can he?
The smuggling issue will depend on the level of tariffs, again a deal is required.
There is a great deal of trust required for these arrangements and a great deal of planning and supervision. What we have after all this time is the complete opposite.
So if I ask you the chance of a hard brexit now that Boris is the PM with no soft exit appearing in sight, how will you rate it? A certainty? Likely? Possible? Not likely? Or impossible?
It will depend on quite a few things including the simplicity of the proper way, enforcement, thresholds where activity is 'ignored', portability of products, differences in tax and duty rate, tax data sharing and probably a few more.
The cheapest solution would be to slap a border up and pull 1% of goods at random. Clearly that is not the right thing to so and I hope the EU does not adopt this approach (they have not said they won't). That means alternative arrangements must be planned and implemented with close co-operation between the UK and Irish Government managing local issues that arise and sharing intelligence on tax and crime. Still the Irish Government refuses to enter discussions which is a bit of a worry. I would suggest there are technical solutions but no political will to implement them on one side.
Yes a complete shambles. Probably 2-4 years aways from any workable system at a complete guess.