View Poll Results: Brext Bets?

Voters
38. You may not vote on this poll
  • As Planned on March 29th

    2 5.26%
  • No Deal on March 29th

    12 31.58%
  • Delayed to 2021

    9 23.68%
  • Other...

    15 39.47%
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Brexit Bets - Delay, Hard Exit or Last Minute Deal?

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  1. #741

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  2. #742

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  3. #743

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    Quote Originally Posted by civil_servant
    EU support is at a 35-year high.
    There is no doubt the EU has been a power for good for its members, harmonising standards removing internal trade barriers as well as forcing the democratic development of many nations who aspire to join the project. The EU report you cite also noted that dissatisfaction was growing especially in older member countries.

    I would suggest we wait and see what happens in the ballot box in the coming elections to see what the voting public think.

    Quote Originally Posted by civil_servant
    The way the EU has been conducting negotiations has high support from nation states and their constituents. People can't criticize the EU negotiators if the UK can't even be firm on what they want. Can you tell us what they want?
    Of course it is possible to criticise the EU's position and May's inability to clearly state her vision of a post Brexit world. I suspect she is unwilling to offer a clear vision as she knows the UK is the much weaker party in the negotiation so has stuck to her broad-brush red lines akin to the Switzerland model.

    The deal offered and accepted by May is terrible for the UK or for any country for that matter. Would you expect say China, USA or even New Zealand's parliament to ratify such a deal - very unlikely

    Quote Originally Posted by civil_servant
    And then there's you who thinks every political problem has a technical solution and hence you see the EU as a technical construct. That view is not only dangerous, but factually incorrect. It's the political construct of the EU that brought about peace in Ireland and not the free flow of goods. Hence one cannot just replace a political solution with a technical one.
    It is clearly a political issue. Please point out where I have stated it is a technical issue. I have repeatedly pointed out that Mrs May is wanting and the EU are intransigent - A minor tweak to the backstop and this would of been ratified in December on the first sitting. There are clearly solutions to many of the issues raised by the process but these need political will.

    Quote Originally Posted by civil_servant
    It's the political construct of the EU that brought about peace in Ireland and not the free flow of goods. Hence one cannot just replace a political solution with a technical one.
    EU law has been used as a reference in the GFA. By the EU's own admission the approach it has chosen to take (stop bi-lateral discussion between Ireland and the UK on practical solutions) and impose the EU's desire for an economic border within a non-member sovereign state risks the return to violence.

    Quote Originally Posted by civil_servant
    UK politics are in shambles, parliament has chosen to extend negotiation, the EU may return the favour, but Brexiteers are now vowing to use passive aggressive tactics to disrupt EU decision making. Yet you come on here telling us the EU is inflexible.
    The UK has a representative democracy. The law makers are being asked to ratify something I think many would find hard for any legislative body to readily accept. The executive appear to have no choice as the EU will not give any minor concessions. It is very messy and the rules and conventions arcane but I would argue parliament is representing the country on this with a wide array of views but overall they don't want to accept the terrible deal offered by the EU. As sufficient parliamentarians for the motion to pass have pointed out many times minor changes to the insistence of the EU to have a bi-lateral escape clause for an indefinite limbo-zone of paying full fees with no representation - the 'you pay without complaint or comment until we decide you don't have to' clause. Would you want your home country to accept such a deal?
    Last edited by East_coast; 11-04-2019 at 07:36 AM.

  4. #744

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    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...rusted-trader/

    Can the potential of smuggling on an industrial scale be resolved? (there is already smuggling to arbitrage VAT differences)

  5. #745

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    Quote Originally Posted by East_coast
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...rusted-trader/

    Can the potential of smuggling on an industrial scale be resolved? (there is already smuggling to arbitrage VAT differences)
    But he can't have that with a "no deal" can he?

    The smuggling issue will depend on the level of tariffs, again a deal is required.

    There is a great deal of trust required for these arrangements and a great deal of planning and supervision. What we have after all this time is the complete opposite.

  6. #746

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    So if I ask you the chance of a hard brexit now that Boris is the PM with no soft exit appearing in sight, how will you rate it? A certainty? Likely? Possible? Not likely? Or impossible?


  7. #747

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    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile
    The smuggling issue will depend on the level of tariffs, again a deal is required.
    It will depend on quite a few things including the simplicity of the proper way, enforcement, thresholds where activity is 'ignored', portability of products, differences in tax and duty rate, tax data sharing and probably a few more.

    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile
    But he can't have that with a "no deal" can he?
    The cheapest solution would be to slap a border up and pull 1% of goods at random. Clearly that is not the right thing to so and I hope the EU does not adopt this approach (they have not said they won't). That means alternative arrangements must be planned and implemented with close co-operation between the UK and Irish Government managing local issues that arise and sharing intelligence on tax and crime. Still the Irish Government refuses to enter discussions which is a bit of a worry. I would suggest there are technical solutions but no political will to implement them on one side.

    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile
    There is a great deal of trust required for these arrangements and a great deal of planning and supervision. What we have after all this time is the complete opposite.
    Yes a complete shambles. Probably 2-4 years aways from any workable system at a complete guess.

  8. #748

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coolboy
    So if I ask you the chance of a hard brexit now that Boris is the PM with no soft exit appearing in sight, how will you rate it? A certainty? Likely? Possible? Not likely? Or impossible?
    I would go for possible to likely. Though my honest reply would be "who the hell knows?"
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  9. #749

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    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile
    I would go for possible to likely. Though my honest reply would be "who the hell knows?"
    Fair enough, although the recent train of events between Boris and the EU is not....shall we say, confidence inspiring.

  10. #750

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