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Covid-19 - Global News - July 2020

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  1. #111

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pauljoecoe:
    I reckon more people have you on ignore than you have them. Constant name calling, abusing, putting down. Would hate to be a member of your immediate family.
    For someone who claims to have put me on ignore, you seem strangely unable to stop reading and replying to my posts. I guess you don't have the courage of your convictions? Go on, be a man and live up to your word. Or, keep bringing up my family... super classy of you.

    https://geoexpat.com/forum/415/threa...ml#post3738074

  2. #112

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    FILTHKT

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  3. #113

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    Quote Originally Posted by TigerSun:
    It's absurd to compare Sweden with Japan on an infectious virus.
    The population density of Sweden is 25, Japan 347 per sq.km.

    If you want to compare stats, compare the Nordic countries. Sweden is abysmal.
    Yes, Norway and Finland each have half the population but a fraction of infections.
    And we know that Sweden is 4th in world in per capita deaths. Outstanding!

    Attachment 82223
    You missed the point, I didn't compare Sweden with Japan, Brit did. I highlighted that yet another of Brit's sweeping statements was bullshit by picking one country with a 2nd wave - substitute it with Sweden or Norway or timbuctu if you like, the comparison with Brit's 'it's all the same' comment is equally valid.

    Brit asserted that Swedens purported 2nd wave would be the same as everywhere else having a 2nd wave.

    The entire point of Sweden's approach is that they get their 2nd and 3rd and 4th waves within their first wave, so even if they are unsuccessful with that, at the very least the nature of their 2nd wave will be different from others.
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  4. #114

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cheeky Kiwi:
    FILTHKT
    FIHKLE expats heading back to Easy London these days
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  5. #115

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sage:
    You missed the point, I didn't compare Sweden with Japan, Brit did. I highlighted that yet another of Brit's sweeping statements was bullshit by picking one country with a 2nd wave - substitute it with Sweden or Norway or timbuctu if you like, the comparison with Brit's 'it's all the same' comment is equally valid.

    Brit asserted that Swedens purported 2nd wave would be the same as everywhere else having a 2nd wave.

    The entire point of Sweden's approach is that they get their 2nd and 3rd and 4th waves within their first wave, so even if they are unsuccessful with that, at the very least the nature of their 2nd wave will be different from others.
    Based on what evidence? That would only be logical if they had approached anything like herd immunity.

  6. #116

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    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    Based on what evidence? That would only be logical if they had approached anything like herd immunity.
    Not true; if you’re a cynic of Sweden’s model you might suggest they were happy to let their most vulnerable die, which to some extent HAS happened, though not ‘intentionally’.

    Once your most vulnerable are dead, the rest, who all fall into lower risk groups, are less likely to die, and it seems less likely to become infected with symptoms. And thus their death rate falls.

    To extend the argument to its logical conclusion eventually you will have herd immunity both because many people will have had it and those that remain that haven’t are too low risk to be affected (significantly). Even if Sweden has many vulnerable left, the proportion of their vulnerable to their Sacndavin neighbours is still less and again death rate falls.

    If you’re a supporter of Sweden’s model you might also find data that suggests that some level of broader society immunity has started to be achieved.

    Whatever your belief, Sweden’s death rate (currently) is way down.
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  7. #117

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sage:
    Not true; if you’re a cynic of Sweden’s model you might suggest they were happy to let their most vulnerable die, which to some extent HAS happened, though not ‘intentionally’.

    Once your most vulnerable are dead, the rest, who all fall into lower risk groups, are less likely to die, and it seems less likely to become infected with symptoms. And thus their death rate falls.

    To extend the argument to its logical conclusion eventually you will have herd immunity both because many people will have had it and those that remain that haven’t are too low risk to be affected (significantly). Even if Sweden has many vulnerable left, the proportion of their vulnerable to their Sacndavin neighbours is still less and again death rate falls.

    If you’re a supporter of Sweden’s model you might also find data that suggests that some level of broader society immunity has started to be achieved.

    Whatever your belief, Sweden’s death rate (currently) is way down.
    The percentage of vulnerable that have died is way too low to make any statistically significant difference to future waves. Whether Sweden experiences future waves and the shape and size of them only God knows but it won't be a result of the high level of deaths to date.

    Yes Sweden's death rate has fallen but when they are falling from one of the highest death rates in the world in a low population low density high wealth situation that should have a low death rate then it is hardly anything to be that happy about. Only a few thousand people died unnecessarily.

  8. #118

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    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    The percentage of vulnerable that have died is way too low to make any statistically significant difference to future waves. Whether Sweden experiences future waves and the shape and size of them only God knows but it won't be a result of the high level of deaths to date.

    Yes Sweden's death rate has fallen but when they are falling from one of the highest death rates in the world in a low population low density high wealth situation that should have a low death rate then it is hardly anything to be that happy about. Only a few thousand people died unnecessarily.
    I think it's simply too early to say. If a vaccine was rolled out across the world today and all deaths immediately ceased then Sweden's gamble would clearly be a losing hand, but they're playing the long game and until that time frame is played out a bit further, it's...too... early.


    BUT if Sweden can keep it's now very low infection and death rates for the next few weeks/months (it's only been 5 days since the fortune article and the 'masks pointless now' comment) then their approach will be looking much more promising.


    There's an assumption that covid has the ability to affect everyone (with the same age and same comorbities) equally though there's other factors that might yet have a bearing:
    Why so many asymptomatics?
    What about prior exposure to TB vaccine or other flu like viruses?
    The example of spanish flu and 28 yr olds...

    Etc etc
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