Taiwan Strait Crisis: How Likely?

[SirNotAppearing]

You mean Biden, right?

You mean Biden without his aviator glasses, right?

[hullexile]

Quietly the Philippines has been developing some sort of military outside of an infantry. Navy ships (two more just ordered), jet fighters, dozens of attack helicopters, surface to air and ship to ship missiles. Not a lot but when previous governments had spent nothing for decades it is a big jump. Now who could it be aimed at defending against?

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...ln-2022-01-15/

[SirNotAppearing]

Quietly the Philippines has been developing some sort of military outside of an infantry. Navy ships (two more just ordered), jet fighters, dozens of attack helicopters, surface to air and ship to ship missiles. Not a lot but when previous governments had spent nothing for decades it is a big jump. Now who could it be aimed at defending against?

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...ln-2022-01-15/

Drug addicts?

[hullexile]

Drug addicts?

They are all dead, didn't you read that?

[drumbrake]

China invades Taiwan and Russia invades Ukraine?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ve-of-olympics

[Cheeky Kiwi]

Of course

More than a 50% chance of it happening

[GentleGeorge]

China invades Taiwan and Russia invades Ukraine?

This will not happen.

But if it did, World War 3 overnight in all likelihood.

[drumbrake]

This will not happen.

But if it did, World War 3 overnight in all likelihood.

Sure it won't happen? Russia has history in this area - Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact. China is increasingly threatening Taiwan. The only country standing in both Russia and China's way is the US. So, if they both invade at the same time, America is over-stretched and pulled in two directions.

[Coolboy]

Sure it won't happen? Russia has history in this area - Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact. China is increasingly threatening Taiwan. The only country standing in both Russia and China's way is the US. So, if they both invade at the same time, America is over-stretched and pulled in two directions.

Years ago the US military was geared to a two-front war, that is having a military with the resources and capability to wage wars in two different regions at the same time. However, since the end of the Cold War and the diversion of Washington's focus to counter-terrorism after 9/11, US military doctrine no longer explicitly states a two-front war scenario. This is not surprising given the tighter budget constraints in the post-Cold War era and changing geopolitical situation at the time.

That being said, America's response to an invasion of Ukraine and Taiwan at the same time will not be like anything that has occurred since the collapse of the Soviet Union 30 years ago. That simultaneous attack would represent a direct threat to America's national security and there is no way Washington will just react by doing nothing. Even if there is no direct military combat between US and China or Russia because of nuclear deterrence, Washington will take actions that we have not seen in the last 30 years, and I am not referring to merely economic sanctions.

[GentleGeorge]

Original Post Deleted

Europe would have looked *VERY* different after either of the wars without American support